Hey everyone! What do you guys think about the June job report impact on the rate hike? Will there be any changes?
Hello Jessica, well, given the impact on the US Dollar that the NFP had today, which was minimal,
I would say that the chance of a Fed response to this job data being a rate hike in July may be
close to zero!
What do you think?
Indeed … [I][U]very[/U][/I] close to zero: barely conceivable at all.
Yes. It went short and made some good profits so send them a message of me buying a new PC!!!
The market has barely a 25P moved baked in right now for DEC 2016 @ 25% change of a hike. No one is positioned for any move, all the way out to JUN '17 where we see ~30% chance of .50 - .75 being the target rate.
4 hikes this year will likely = no hikes this year = continued confusion in the markets.
How can the dollar catch a safe-haven-bid, as well as front-running a hike?
Currencies move in anticipation of an event - buy the rumor, sell the news.
Same thing w/ options and volatility - the event isn’t the trade, it’s the lead-up to the event the majority of the time where the real money is made.
Absolutely. That is what happened with Strrling when Carney came to office, speculation of a rate hike pulled it up to 1.72 and…then all the way back down…
…listen to yesterday’s episode of Power Trading Radio:
Power Trading Radio Video Archives | Friday, July 8, 2016
What are NFP figures actually telling us? What is the differece between U3 and U6 unemployment figures? Why is participation going down?
This and more in the podcast…
Interesting thoughts and comments.
Yes, I guess now Fed has other things to think about! The Brexit had caused some serious turmoil in the US economy. But they say that interest rates are not likely to be affected.