LOL!!! Wait. Hold the phone. Lemme check if I have a follower!!! LOL!!!
True enough!!! I have one follower!!! LOL!!!
Thanks.
Whenever I think of Twitter or hear about Twitter I think of David Letterman (2009):
Hahahahah, classic technophobe fun. 
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This one was brilliant as well:
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Oh well. Back to the land of dreams.
Nothing much to report. Stocks up. Then stocks down. No other way to describe the day.
With the possible exception of Australia I will not be scaling-in on anything tonight. Nothing has closed much higher (in some cases not at all higher and in some cases even lower) than my entries of yesterday (bearing in mind that my entries of yesterday were based on the opening price of the gaps of Sunday night’s open). And I’m already fully loaded on Apple so no more scaling in anyway on that position. Point is really (and unfortunately this is subjective): the difference between last night’s close and tonight’s close just does not warrant scaling in any further for me. If we have a higher close tomorrow then obviously I shall scale in further. But current entries are good enough in that if the markets go down from tonight then they’ll all end up in profit anyway. Not trying to hit home runs here.
So boring as that may be: that’s the day’s action (or lack thereof) on this thread.
Totally of topic but being posted here for one or two other members.
It has been bugging the living sh*t out of me of late (since Bill Williams’ stuff is getting another punt and a resurrection of sorts). In the two books that I’ve made available: when just briefly skimming over them I’ve not seen the stuff that I kept referring to (about buying or selling above or below the AC line as well as more in depth information on Fractals). By sheer luck I found the flipping book that I was thinking of while going through all of my old trading .PDF documents looking for something else!!! Not sure which book in the series this was but it is BY FAR superior to the Trading Chaos versions. Take a look a the sections on the AC line and Fractals (but the rest of the book as I say is much better than the other two).
Bill Williams - New Trading Dimensions
P.S.
Just to be really clear: this book has nothing at all to do with the trading system detailed on this thread.
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As a few will know: Connors says that there are probably many variations of this particular trading system. And as those same few may know: I have been sitting and watching pivots for a good while now but am not confident enough to trade them the main reasons being that a) I don’t like trading with stops and b) the direction in which to take a pivot trade is far too subjective for me. But in just watching the TPS trades and watching what happens when price trades to pivots during the day I’ve had a thought. And please do note it’s nothing more than a thought at this point and in no way detracts from what has been accomplished here thus far.
The rough idea (thought process) is as follows and using long trades as an example:
You wait for RSI(2) to close below 25 for two consecutive days. Nothing new here. But now: instead of going long at the close you place a limit buy order at an extreme pivot level i.e. S3 for the next day. Simply rinse and repeat for each day that you’re in one of these trades. Exit as per the TPS rules. Or one could simply exit at the close each day and wait for another signal. Or one could set a TP at the next pivot level and exit intraday.
The reason the above has merit: you will almost always get into a trade at a FAR FAR better price that you would ordinarily get into a trade by going in at market just before the close. One possible drawback is that price will not always trade to an extreme pivot level so you may end up not being able to scale in on open positions (and you may even miss a TPS trade altogether). Another possible drawback is that price may trade past and close past an extreme pivot level. But this really does not happen very often.
As I say: the above merely something that just came to me while looking at some charts. Not to detract at all from the system detailed on this thread. But there’s definitely something in this idea. It just needs to be finessed.
Only speaking from forex demo experience … as of the past few months I have only placed limit orders for that exact reason. Even if I am scaling in I will use limit orders and not stop orders. My thought, and I could be WAY off base, My thought is that by placing a small grid of limit orders below the close I am more likely to get in at a much better price.
I’ll place one at some extreme point - call it “100”, one at “75”%, one at the half way point and one at the “25”% point. I’ll usually layout in a subjective manner based on S/R or S/D and PA.
KC
I think your thought process is sound. At least for using limit orders. Mainly because they can only be slipped in your favor.
You’re looking at support and resistance so maybe there’s an idea in the above for you too. Instead of placing orders based on something as subjective as support and resistance: what would happen for you if you roughly identified support and resistance but only placed your limit orders at a pivot level that’s close to your support and resistance??? Just a thought (yet another one). I’m unfortunately notoriously poor at recognizing support and resistance so I don’t bother with the idea. But that’s just me.
I have absolutely no doubt in the merits of pivots. I see price trade to them day in and day out like clockwork. But the usual garden variety pivot point trading strategies just don’t float my boat. But those levels to hold. The problem is working out which one of them on any given day is going to hold. The other problem is in which direction to take the pivot point trade. I’ve seen so many pivot point strategies it’s frightening. But when I try and trace some of the trades through: I don’t get it. I suppose if you’re accustomed to, and can handle, getting stopped out and brush that aside and move on to the next pivot point trade well great. I just don’t have what it takes to do that.
The reason for my thought process as it pertains to my trading system: my trading system is giving you the direction to take trades anyway. It could be wrong because my trading system can have trades going against you for days before turning to profit and closing the trades out. But I really think there’s something to this. Maybe not a combination of the two trading systems i.e. maybe two different trading systems. Dunno. Not going to lose any sleep over it. These things just come to me from time to time. So I put them out there. You never know: they may click with somebody that can run with them type of thing. But this one: maybe I try to finesse myself. I suppose if you base it down: you’re simply using RSI(2) to indicate to you whether you should be looking to go long or go short. Once that’s been established: you then use extreme pivot levels and place limit orders. Could be a very valid short term intraday trading system. Maybe.
Put it this way: even on days where my trading system is wrong and it would have you hold positions overnight and wait for the next signal price will still trade to a pivot, retrace, almost always hit the next pivot, and then barrel on against you after that. There’s definitely something in this.
I’m still up. And I should be in bed. It’ll be morning here soon. But anyway and to expound on the above just a little further.
I scaled in on Australia at the close last night right. Bear in mind that my trading system is looking for shorts at this time. Right. Australia has now moved up since the close last night Not by much. It’s stalled just south of R1 at the moment. But let’s just say that the markets get a bit more fire under them today and Australia trades to R3 during the course of today. Can you see at just how much of a better price I would have gotten at R3 as opposed to the closing price of last night???
I’m tellin ya: there is something to this idea. Not 100% sure of what it is yet.
Morning.
Well things are looking arguably good today I must say. At this time anyway i.e. the trading day is but an embryo.
From my experience however: moves on Wednesdays have a habit of continuing and following through on Thursdays and with added vengeance to boot. Suits me.
Just been asked about my updated profile. Yes. That’s me. Albeit in what currently feels like a previous lifetime ago (about eighteen months or so ago).
Speaking of profiles though: anybody noticed the bombshells signing up here of late??? Somebody is taking the proverbial piss I’m sure. Is nothing scared anymore!!! LOL!!!.
Still testing different combinations using the MT4 strategy tester. So far only on EURCHF (that pair for no particular reason), and in this run just the last 10 months. Any more than that and the test run takes forever, but now that I have isolated the high performing numbers I will do a run over a longer time period. The surprise to me was that the optimum SMA setting seems to be around 280, and, actually, that any of these trades got close to 220 pips of profit. Let’s see what other pairs and some indices show, but that later.
It seems that the optimum settings do not include a stop loss (unless I just haven’t found a sweet spot for that) but instead relies on the emergency stop when price crosses the wrong side of the MA, plus those listed below. These numbers are TP in pips and the SMA period is on the daily chart, these in order of best performance to still very good. I have tested possibly more than 100 combinations starting with fairly small numbers and it’s only at the higher end that things start pumping.
|TakeProfit=220 |MA_Period=280|
|TakeProfit=220 |MA_Period=280|
|TakeProfit=220 |MA_Period=320|
|TakeProfit=220 |MA_Period=300|
|TakeProfit=200 |MA_Period=280|
|TakeProfit=200 |MA_Period=280|
|TakeProfit=200 |MA_Period=300|
I can see a question coming - this was about 17% profit over 10 months on one pair.
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Hello.
Hey. That’s good news. I think.
Are those details of individual trades or simply a list of the best trades using different parameters???
On what basis did you calculate risk (you had to have done this in order to implement the stop) and therefore what were your lot sizes and what were they based on. This is important obviously because it would affect the 17%. Oh and with what amount of capital. This is all relevant to the 17%.
But I’ll say this (which is obvious). As you say: one pair. Trading six pairs and with similar results??? That’s not too shabby. Not in the “mile high club” (so probably will not interest most around here unfortunately) but I will guarantee SUSTAINABLE. And therein lies the difference between this and the next fad trading system that works for three months only never to be seen again.
Capital is $3000, the EA was asked to use a full lot size of 0.1 (hence 0.01 + 0.02 etc). That wasn’t calculated, just a working knowledge thumb suck.
These results are the end result of all the trades the EA was able to generate over the 10-month period, trading 24/5.
Incidentally, I tried a test with SMA 350 and another with SMA 500. the former came up with the same sort of result, while the latter made a loss. So it seems there is a sweet spot for SMA around 300 or so. But don’t use this at home. I might be a quirk of EURCHF and conditions over the last 10 months.
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Well listen up.
Really appreciate your efforts (not that it’s for me but you know what I’m saying). And really nice to see that you’re getting results.
The lot sizes will make a difference though. I know there’s been many times before I started using that risk based position size calculation that I was in fact UNDER TRADING relative to capital. And there were other times were I was indeed OVER TRADING. That calculation really does seem to be spot on the mark for this system and for the stops. UNFORTUNATELY: it makes it VERY clear just how much capital you actually do need to trade this trading system And it’s a LOT. You would be surprised if you did those calculations. But I guarantee that if you do bother with those calculations and risk management and correct position sizing: it may take a lot longer to become a rich man. But you will never wipe out and you will end up with a really nice and decent profit year after year after year. And certainly on par with some of these fancy investment firms. And that’s good enough for me.
Are you referring to real human discretionary traders here? Remember that this is an unsophisticated trading robot I’m using. If the test results I’m getting mean anything at all and can be sustained over time, then the big difference between me and those mile high club traders is that I will be on my round the word cruise, and around and around, while my EA slaves away on a VPS and I pick my money from Automatic Teller Machines around the world! LOL!!
Of course, that won’t happen because dumb programmes can’t be responsive to changing conditions, but you get my drift. We can’t compare a dumb machine robot with high flying human traders.
BTW, just run a test on AUDUSD and got 19.8% on my first try (same 10 months etc etc as before).
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No. I’m talking about all of these systems that PURPORT to make +100% per month type of thing. Do yourself a favor and look at these threads where they all started out claiming OODLES of returns and in most cases eve have statistics to prove it. Fantastic. And then the thread just ENDS DEAD after a few months. That’s not because the dude got bored I assure you.
What I’m saying (and to use your words): if an unsophisticated trading robot can generate the types of returns that you’re getting with it then in my opinion you’ve hit the jackpot. And it will be SUSTAINABLE. No point in making +500% in three months and then losing -2 000% in the next nine months. And this seems allude many (not you!!!).
And to add: I wouldn’t be THAT sure that if that EA of yours is coded right that you’d worse than a human trader (me to be blunt). You know there are times when I don’t do the right things. Fine example is Hong Kong in the last few days. You EA would simply have taken the trade and left it at that. I got impatient, took a little profit, and the next thing it flipping exploded. Up AND down to boot i.e valid signals for both. And that does make a difference. Bearing in mind I pretty much use the shotgun approach and trade as many instruments as I’m able to relative to margin requirements. Sometimes not all of those positions close at profit. So nice trades like the two that I’ve just missed make a difference overall if you see what I mean.
Those are the ones who promise fast women and beautiful cars!!
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Yeh. This is more for those who have to walk to the shops and have no woman!!! LOL!!! (NOT FUNNY actually).
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