Enter long at the test of the fibs 61.8 retracement at the upper TL.
Entry: 0.5733
SL: 0.5680
TP: 0.5950
See chart below.
Your seeing something different than me on the nzd/usd which of course i’m using ibfx.This pair is showing a completion from 38.2 to 138.2 on my last 4 hr swing plus you have one of those reversal pin bar on the dailies a couple of days ago…It has also went to 23.6 fib level on the daily to my 118 which may be complete.My bias is short for now but your the man 
It will be interesting for sure. Rob
I’m a bit confuse with those numbers. I dont use all the fib. numbers, only a set few. You can post a chart to further explain what you are saying and I will comment.
As you know I’m guided by the trendlines, the daily chart is showing the test of an inner down TL that has been broken, so my bias is long until it shows different.
As you know I’m guided by the trendlines, the daily chart is showing the test of an inner down TL that has been broken, so my bias is long until it shows different.
i like that! sticking with your stuff no-matter wot!
I have a contribution to make here base on how i trade my method.
I have labelled my chart accordingly, looking at the chart, the main AB boundary is bearish, so we have been waiting for retracement for a possible bearish continuation. we have a minor abcd swing.
Now, we have the inner TL acting as resistance here, the sub swing pulled back at less than 38.2 and was rejected at 1.18 which is a natural resistance. and according to my trading rule 20/80 golden rule says’ once price retraces at 38.2, it fast and aggressively moves to 1.618 20% of the time it occurs and dip further at 80% that it occurs’.
so am doing a waiting game here, the break of the trendline will signal downward move to 5447 or 5196. then we can narrow down to 4hr TF and trade it south.
Another interesting thing is if price retraces back to 5196, it will be minor flip between support/resistance, 61.8 fib and back of TL bounce convergence, which will give us possible weak crown formation
So, if the TL holds as it is, then we could see fast and aggressive move to 1.618 but i’d like to trade with more probability on my side why bcoz i am a mathematician who blivs in probability.
Hope this gives clearer overview of the events in NZDUSD?
The up move of the NZDUSD may be limited because of the recent test of a red line on the daily chart (see the picture attached) and the evening star formation at it.
Suppose we have an up TL with the price above it. Now assume there is retracement that is currently above the TL as well. When will we initiate a long trade?
[ul]
[li]Do we need to have some sort of previous S/R to the right, or we need the confluence of the existence of S/R at the current price level and the retracement to some good Fib level, or a large Fib level without previous S/R to the right is sufficient?
[/li][li]Also, assume the price has just touched the TL. We don’t always trade on CFs, right? Ok, then should be go long [I]immediately[/I] or there [I]must[/I] be some sort of confluence of several distinct factors like S/R and/or Fib levels?
[/li][/ul]
Thanks
The “best” entry IMO is a combination of a few things.
In an uptrend:
- Market has complete wave(abcd) define by fibonacci(retracement of fib. 38.2 or 61.8 extend to 161.8 or 78.6 extend to 127)
- Market retrace to the TL formed by the initial wave to a 38.2, 61.8 or 78.6 - these are the only retracement numbers I use.
- Past resistance now support at the same level.
- A bounce is expected at this level but you can wait on a reversal candlestick formation to confirm.
Do the opposite in a bear market.
I manually close half my position at 0.5838 to lock in profit(100pips) ahead of the long holiday weekend. My bias is still Long looking forward to .6000 and above. Happy Easter All.
The way i look at it as long as you have a method or plan and it’s been working don’t change it as long as it has stood the test of time. Take care everyone. Rob
Here is my chart of the nzd/usd - redfibs or 4hrs charts and green are daily - the redline is the daily support and resisitance level. I never traded this chart because it never came back to the trendline or never came back to the 38.2 of the daily. If it came back to the 4hr trendline i would have considered it. …but since the pair right now is above resisiantce on the daily it could very well take off to the upside as cadar mentioned and it has bounced off the 127 fibs on the 4hr chart allready and now for a possible retracement to the upsaide to 138.2 or 161.8 of the 4hr chart.Hope this makes sense.
Below is the EURCAD 4-hour chart. Would any intersection of the price with the two horizontal blue lines, symbolizing past s/r areas, be a valid long entry, taking into account that the price (almost) tested the down TL?
Long at the test of the up trendline, also we have a counter down trendline formed by the retracement. The counter down TL has been broken and now theres a test of that TL.
Entry: 100.04
SL: 99.54
TP1: 101.07
TP2: 101.57
See chart below.
I don’t have much experience in this method yet but I think the trade is a little bit risky because we are in the down trend on the weakly chart and are near the important S/R level of 101.50 (the red line on the chart attached). Let’s see what will happen.
I went short EURUSD (see the first chart attached). The reasonings are 61.8 Fib, past S/R (the orange line on the second chart attached), and the price being near the up TL. Say me guys if I’m wrong according to the method we use here.
U/jpy just broke my 4hr trendline to the down side.
This is on the daily. Reversal candle rejection at a strong line that has has several hits in the past with a shooting star on the 4hr chart and trendline .Also price action is a mother candle with a breach of a reversal candle on daily. Sell at 1.23400 SL =1. 24240
My first profit target has been hit for 110 pips profit, SL has been moved to b/e. My risk was 50 pips.
Hi, Rob123! As far as I can jugde, there was no validity of your entry because there was no confluence of different factors. It was only daily S/R zone that was on the chart. There was no TL test, no retracement etc. (Actually a down TL on your chart has been broken.) If a proper CF appeared near the up TL that has been broken (assuming we are in the S/R zone), then your entry would have been valid.
It seems that S/R lines are better played if noted on a higher TF and entered on a lower TF (assuming that, say, a Pin bar has been formed at the test of out S/R on a smaller TF). I’m curently reading this wonderful thread; it discusses entries like that.
Good going man.
Stop hit for a -50pips loss.