Hi, trendLine_Trader! I entered at 141.70 (see post #159 below), so I wasn’t stoped out, stop loss was placed 50 pips below the entry. If I close my position now, I’ll be with 200 x 2 = 400 pips profit with my SL at break even. My profit target are based on S/R levels.
Cheers
The price may experience some difficulties at 143.45, which it actually does. Another hurdle is at 145.00. My first target is between these two hurdles. Perhaps, not a perfect place to have a PT1. But taking into account that 145.00 is stonger (it is almost a S/R “line”), I think there is a good chance that the price will try to test it, hence hitting my PT1.
My 1st profit target has been hit for 240 pips profit. The SL is at the break even.
If we should get a break of the counter down TL I see this pair going all the way to 160.00 there about.
First a big thanks to your posting your ideas. It’s a great way to learn a strategy. Below I am posting charts of u/c H4 and H1 - I have two TLs drawn that intersect at the same area the price comes up and tests. Then there is an engulfing bear candle so I enter the trade.
The problem that I am having is “seeing” how to place the ABC’s and 123’s on the chart. I am sure that it will take some practice but if anyone would mind showing me on this chart how I might do it I would appreciate it. I justified the Orange TL by looking at the H1 and seeing that it was making lower lows.
If there was any other information that I could of used on this chart that I didn’t “see” please point it out so that I can learn. I appreciate any responses in advance.
Eric
After reviewing more of the examples posted previously I came up with this:
Price at C comes down to the 78.6 Fib and creates a morning star formation. Had you entered after the 3rd bar of the pattern (the long up bar post the bar which completes the pattern) you would have come down about 40 pips before price shoots the way you want. The distance to the most recent lowest low was 65 pips or so.
The problem is the 78.6 Fib line; I don’t see many past examples where you enter on this Fib line. Also the Fib line and the trendline are relative to each other but with a noticeable gap. Not sure how important or unimportant this is.
This was just my attempt to add what I think to be your ABC analysis to the chart. Maybe I am wrong.
Also wanted to add that I know my entry is invalid based on the system: Only enter on a C or 3 was the rule.
I know that this is another post of a hindsight chart but I am just trying to make sure I understand the ABCD (i have no idea where 1234 comes into play). Am I correct in my labeling and TL’s and other aspects of the chart here? I guess another good question might be… what now in regards to this chart.
Thanks,
Eric
More visualizing. Practice makes perfect, right? (Although I feel bad about the # of posts I am making on Cadarkitek’s thread)
First Set:
First I am not sure that this trade would have been possible. Seeing that it’s hindsight of course it looks good. First the trend is strongly UP. From the 4h perspective B is not a lower low - a quick look at the 1h gives us justification for making the new TL down. We then see higher highs on the h1 and a bearish engulfing forms after the candle that’s not quite a evening star. On the H4 we see a candle piercing through the 61.8 fib followed by a bearish engulfing validating entry.
Second Set:
I am only showing this second set because I want to get feedback from others on what they think of it. For me with it so close to a lower TL I would most likely look for another trade. On the 4h you have the candle at C shooting up to 61.8 Fib and then dropping back. Next candle is an engulfing bearish candle. Great setup I believe but just too close to that bottom TL.
What are your thought on this analysis and do you feel I am missing any important pieces of information?
This chart really excited me as i applied what I feel to be proper abcd’s and even a 1234. This is just the 4h view but as I looked at the 1h view I became overwhelmed by the number of correct setups I viewed.
First ABCD is a huge move. I like how AB almost equals CD. The 61.8 gets pierced, price moves back and the next 4h form a morning star. An almost textbook formation. I notice that price does come up and linger around a previous 4h resistance at around 88.00 which should be expected. I am thinking i most likely would have taken some off at this point. Greed/Fear kicking in and getting the best of me. This may have been posted somewhere but A in this example could have been C in a previous setup.
The 1234 starts a reversal of the previous trend. 3 shows a lower high. There is a evening star shining but i notice something interesting here. How many people would have used the top of the evening star to place there stop? I think I most likely would have. Price pushes past this point and hits the 61.8 Fib, then commences to drop. I don’t feel that I would have had the confidence to re-enter the trade after that. Obviously I need more experience using the system.
The smaller abc (d left off on purpose) is self explanatory.
I will be watching this pair for a new entry. Trend is currently down but there was a bounce at the previous support( Where the first C was). Should this TL it is at now hold up and a reversal take place I would expect an entry within the next few days hopefully.
Thoughts?
I have been applying this system to this pair and have some different results that bring about questions.
1.) The following chart is of the GJ daily. I can see in past examples this strategy working on the daily but this particular one caught my eye:
As you can see the support TL is pretty strong. The most recent bounce coincides with the 61.8 Fib. There has been some news that might give the result seen on the current bar but noting I can see that is “drastic.” Notice every bounce off this TL prior to this one made an immediate turn up for a few bars. This one didn’t.
On to the H4:
As you can see we have moved into a slight downtrend and a flag is forming. The ABC look good for the most part. I kinda randomly picked the A location. IT works, but I am wondering if I “made it work.” As is the 61.8 lines up with the TL. An evening star forms and price goes the correct way. Now it looks like price is starting to bounce around as we get close to the end of this pendent.
So which way does price go? For me after seeing the D1 setup showing possible higher price, add the fact that we are primarily in an up trend, D1 stochastic is right at the 20 mark… I am thinking up. My approach will be to watch the H1. Once the flag is broken I will look for a retest. At the retest I will look for one of the mentioned CF on post 2 of this thread. Then I will just hope I guess.
Hi Volodja,
Why did you double your pips here to 400?
Regards, Juicyt
Hi Volodja,
Why did you double your pips here to 400?
Regards, Juicyt[/QUOTE]
Hi Juicyt!
It was because I went long with a multiple of two lots. So, if I was stopped out, I’d have doubled the amount of pips I loosed. If I closed that two positions, I’d have gotten 200 pips from the first one and the same amount from the second one. Perhaps not a common method to count pips though.
Was great tlaking to you on skype mate…I will be posting in here in this thread…
I will be looking to short the eurusd around 1.31
Looking for the retracement back to the 89 area to buy support of the buy zone and then I will try and hold up to the 91 area so I can look to sell this puppy back down from the exterior trend…
Looking to long this puppy of around the 1.60 and looking for shorts at a higher price at the current moment…
Alright odds are we we should see a break down preety soon since we are traveling very vertical meaning any moment now the market could start seing some profit taking to this last big move up. Once this profit takes place I will be looking to buy at around 1.25 , 1.2450 , and around 1.2450-1,2400. Most like we will simply a channel shift in the upcoming days
Here is a setup I am defently looking to getting into if we can gett good price action around 85.50 and 86…
If you also take a look we will end the gartly right at the 38.2 as well as we have a great resistance in that area…
This is the trade that I woke up to this morning:
What was support was broken and tested yesterday. There was a strong bounce. Today there was a retrace in price. A to B is a 310 pip movement. C comes up to the 61.8 Fib line and closes in an evening star. Unfortunately I missed the best entry at the close of this candle (1.4550).
Entry: 1.4528
SL: 1.4602 (74 Pips - I reduced my normal lot size to minimize risk on this large SL. I wish I had gotten the best entry which would of been a 40 pip SL.)
TP1: 1.4335
TP2: 1.4308
EDIT: A few hours later.
So after waking up, eating some food, and getting my mind working I am kicking my self in the rear end for taking this trade. Look below and then I will explain:
I entered this trade (a little premature but with small risk) on the D1 chart last night before I went to bed. It went up over 100 pips in the night and I was sitting at 65ish when I woke up. So here is where I turned over to the 4h, saw the evening star at the top of the Fib, closed out the original trade, and entered the trade shown above. So this has a few inherent problems.
#1.) Trade the trend - the trend on the daily is up. Higher Highs - Higher Lows.
#2.) Follow the longer Time Frames.
On the H4 we see the Head and Shoulders and the recent decline. I zoom out 1 small part and see that the overall trend is UP. Yes the recent trend on the H4 is down. Lower Lows and Lower Highs, but looking at that in regards to the higher time frame makes me a little cautious.
I will be staying in this trade. I still think based on the setup shown in the first chart that there could be a significant drop in the price. I think it will be difficult for price to break this support TL though. Therefore I am going to exit the trade 1 of 2 ways:
1.) SL gets hit.
2.) Exit 60% of trade at lower TL. Move SL into +profit area. If lower TL gets broken I will still have the 40% to ride out.
My r:r is going to be reduced significantly on this trade but I still see the possibility of it turning into somewhat of a winner. If not I know that it was my fault not following the upper TF trend.
Hi nlrsniper, can you explain why you drew a trendline from around that 1.4700 area down? Also where is your evening star? Any chance to get you to mark it on your picture please?
Thanks, Juicyt
