[B]Shorted EURJPY [/B]
EURJPY is a carry trade that has been very profitable for the past 7 years, but I think this carry trade is overdone.
Both MACD and Bollingerband are signaling that EURJPY could go down lower.
Shorted 10,000 EURJPY at 163.98
Stop level at 165.60
Target level at 162.40
[QUOTE=trader123;61972][B]Shorted EURJPY [/B]
EURJPY is a carry trade that has been very profitable for the past 7 years, but I think this carry trade is overdone.
Both MACD and Bollingerband are signaling that EURJPY could go down lower.
Shorted 10,000 EURJPY at 163.98
Stop level at 165.60
Target level at 162.40
[B]EURJPY profit is up 120 pips [/B]
Yesterday I had shorted 10,000 EURJPY at 163.98, stop level at 165.60, target level at 162.40.
EURJPY continues to move down sharply.
Japan’s gross domestic product shrank an annualized 2.4 percent in the three months ended June 30 after expanding a revised 3.2 percent in the first quarter. This may weaken the yen and cause a rebound in EURJPY.
I decide to take profit first. Bought back at 162.78, profit is US$108.82.
[QUOTE=trader123;61948]Last week I had bought 10,000 EURGBP at 0.7844, stop level at 0.7750, target level at 0.7940.
Today EURGBP has rebounded as there is data to show that housing slump in UK had deepened. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said the number of real-estate agents and surveyors reporting lower prices exceeded those reporting gains by 83.9% last month as the credit squeeze brought the market to a virtual standstill.
Currently EURGBP is trading at 0.7835, unrealised loss is US$34. EURGBP is moving back up into the range, so my loss should turn into profit pretty soon.
Last week Thurday 7 August, I had bought 20,000 EURGBP at 0.7844, stop level at 0.7750, target level at 0.7940.
The Bank of England published its quarterly inflation forecasts on Wednesday against a backdrop of sharply rising price pressures and a slowing economy. Governor Mervyn King said “The current period of above-target inflation, although very marked, will be temporary and inflation will return to the 2 percent target.”
GBP comes under assault following the release of BOE inflation report pushing EURGBP up.
I took profit on 0.7930, profit is US$322.
[B]System signals buy for EURUSD [/B]
As mentioned in my previous posting, US dollar has rallied for the past one month. US dollar has rushed up too fast and too steep. Fundamentally and technically I think this rally is not sustainable. All you need is one bad US economic data to turn this US dollar direction around.
AUDUSD is already up, gold and silver price is already up, crude oil is already up, but EURUSD is still trading in a tight band of 1.4829 - 1.4967. In my view EURUSD is lagging behind. If USD is weaken, then EURUSD should go up higher.
Both Comm Channel and Stochastic had signaled buy for EURUSD
Bought 10,000 EURUSD at 1.4919
Stop level at 1.4818
AUDUSD had fallen sharply from 0.9775 to 0.8600 in just 4 days. AUDUSD seems to have bottomed and due for a rebound.
Both Bolingerband and Stochastics had signaled buy for AUDUSD.
According to 10min chart, if AUDUSD rebounds, it will form double-bottom.
Bought 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8663
Stop level at 0.8559
Target level at 0.8787
AUDUSD is up 50 pips
Yesterday I had bought 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8663, stop level at 0.8559, target level at 0.8787.
Today AUDUSD is trading at 0.8713, unrealised profit is US$50.00.
Main reason for the rise in AUDUSD is that USD strength has peaked, and looks like USD crosses are in consolidation now.
It is another confirmation that my trading system works.
Strong resistance at 0.8750 preventing AUDUSD from moving up higher.
I decide to take profit first, sold at 0.8704, profit is US$41.00.
[B]AUDUSD moving upwards [/B]
AUDUSD gained after commodities prices rose and traders bet the decline in the past month is overdone. Rising commodities prices will continue to provide support for this AUD crosses.
My system has continued to signal buy for AUDUSD.
I had placed working order to buy 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8670
Place a stop level at 0.8570
[B]Double-top formed for USDJPY[/B]
Fear in the financial market has strengthen Yen, at the same time USD has changed its direction from strong to weak.
Double-top formed for USDJPY on the hourly chart.
Shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 108.44
Stop level at 109.49
Target level at 107.00
I believe the bull run from commodities is not over, this will provide support to AUDUSD.
My trading system has signaled buy for AUDUSD.
Bought 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8678
Stop level at 0.8578
Target level at 0.8790
I had written an article entitled Life Cycle of Copper to explain my bullishness on industrial metals (which is part of the commodity family)
Previously there were a lot of agruements on whether slowdown in US economy is going to affect the rest of the world. The answer is yes. Europe and New Zealand have shown signs of slowdown in their economic data.
Hence this lead to the environment whereby US is holding interest rate unchanged while the rest of the world are cutting interest rates.
Based on interest differentiate, we should see NZDUSD and EURUSD falling much lower.
Shorted NZDUSD at 0.6970
Stop level at 0.6673
Target level at 0.6673
Shorted EURUSD at 1.4712
Stop level at 1.4915
Target level at 1.4415
[B]Bearish on New Zealand dollar [/B]
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates for the first time in 5 years on 24 July 08. Reserve Bank of New Zealand reported that economic activity is likely to remain weak over the remainder of 2008.
Retail sales had fallen by the most in 4 years and consumer confidence hitting record lows, the New Zealand dollar has weakened to the lowest level in 6 months.
RBNZ Governor Bollard promising more rate cuts and the futures curve pricing such action, the New Zealand central bank has become the most aggressively dovish policy maker of the G10.
Further weakness is expected in NZD and for it to fall below 66 cents against the US dollar before end of September.
NZDUSD tends to fall when daily stochastic shows oversold.
Seeing that USD started to weaken, I decided to take profit on NZDUSD at 0.6936, profit is US$34.
I decided to take profit at 1.4630, profit is US$82.
On Monday I had shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 109.53, stop level at 11.46, target level at 108.20.
Triple top is formed in the hourly chart, looks like the uptrend is over for this cross.
USDJPY is now trading at 108.72, up 99 pips, profit is US$85.21.
My system has signal SELL for USDJPY since it was trading at 109.60, and it is still signal SELL now.
On Monday I had shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 109.53, stop level at 11.46, target level at 108.20. Details here.
USDJPY is now trading at 108.20, up 108 pips, profit is US$88.15.
My system has signal SELL for USDJPY since it was trading at 109.60, and it is still signal SELL now. So I lower my target price from 108.20 to 107.50.
Traders just starting out in the forex market are often unprepared for what lies ahead. I believe that to trade forex successfully over a longer period of time, a proven trading system is the answer.
After years of building systems, testings, modifications, and more testings, I had finally created a trading system that had helped me to achieve more than 70% success rate in forex trading.
[B]Below are trades executed based on my trading system:[/B]
This are my trades for the past 3 weeks, 75% success rate:
9 winning trades and 3 losing trades
On 10 September I had shorted 10,000 GBPJPY at 186.18, stop level at 188.26, target level at 183.31. GBPJPY rises above 188.26, so my stop is triggered.
On 8 September I had shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 108.43, stop level at 110.00, target level at 106.94. USDJPY went below 106.94, reached my target level, so position is closed. Profit is 143 pips, US$264.44.
On 5 September I had shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654, target level at 1.0487. Details here. Support level at 1.0550 creates a rebound for USDCAD, not taking any chance I decide to take profit first. Bought back USDCAD at 1.0570, profit is up 84 pips, US$78.57.
On 3 September I had shorted 10,000 USDCHF at 1.1078, stop level at 1.1182, target level at 1.0932. USDCHF rise above 1.1182, so my stop triggered. Loss amount is US$104.
On 4 September I had shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 108.18, stop level at 109.30, target level at 106.91. USDJPY slided down, I decide to take profit first as tomorrow US is going to announce Non-Farm Payroll. Bought back at 107.43, profit is 75 pips, US$69.81.
On 2 September I had shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 108.82, stop level at 109.85, target level at 106.85. The whole forex environment turns 360% today, decided to take profit on USDJPY first. Bought back at 108.40, profit is up 42 pips, US$35.75.
On 29 August I had shorted 10,000 EURGBP at 0.8105, stop level at 0.8208, target level at 0.7909. EURGBP keeps going up, so I decide to cut loss. Bought back at 0.8154. loss is US$85.59.
On 1 September I had shorted 10,000 NZDUSD at 0.6962, stop level at 0.7080, target level at 0.6766. NZDUSD fell to a low of 0.6805 before rebounding up. I believe the overall trend for NZDUSD is still down, but it is oversold now, so we may see a rebound. I decided to take profit first, bought back at 0.6871, profit is 91 pips, US$90.60.
On 1 September I had shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 109.53, stop level at 11.46, target level at 108.20. Surprise resignation of Japan Prime Minister may caused market to lose confidence in Yen, hence decide to take profit on USDJPY first. Bought back USDJPY at 108.51, up 102 pips, profit is US$82.00.
On 26 August I had shorted NZDUSD at 0.6970, stop level at 0.6673, target level at 0.6673. Seeing that USD started to weaken, I decided to take profit on NZDUSD at 0.6936, profit is US$34.
On 26 August I had also shorted EURUSD at 1.4712, stop level at 1.4915, target level at 1.4415. I decided to take profit at 1.4630, profit is US$82.
On 12 September I had shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 107.40, stop level at 108.50, target level at 106.10. On 15 September early Asia hours, target level of 106.10 was reached, so my position was closed with 130 pips profit, US$236.06.
This news has triggered the sharp fall in USDJPY:
Key investors Bank of America and Barclays Plc have reportedly decided not to buy troubled investment bank Lehman Brothers this morning. Barclays walked away from the deal after they could not obtain government protection from loses on Lehman’s assets.
Anyone who is interested in my system can send a PM to me.
[B]USDCAD’s trade profit is up 41 pips [/B]
Last night at 1.53am, minutes before the Fed’s announcement was out, I had shorted 20,000 USDCAD at 1.0721, stop level at 1.0826, target level at 1.0590.
USDCAD has indeed moved in my favour, currently trading at 1.0680, 41 pips profit. Rising oil price has contributed to the fall in USDCAD.
[B]Time to short USDJPY again [/B]
The U.S. government agreed to lend as much as $85 billion to American International Group Inc. in exchange for a 79.9 percent stake to save the country’s biggest insurer from collapse. This news has eased off some pressure in the financial market pushing USDJPY up.
Its the worst over? Of course not, in my view nobody really knows what is going to happen next.
When USDJPY plunged to 104 early this week, one of my reader told me that the opportunity to short USDJPY is over (because he knows that shorting USDJPY is my favourite trade). Certainly not, currency pairs do not move one straight line. In forex trading it pays to be patience.
Last month I had written article entitled “Snipers Vs Traders”. In the article I mentioned that a large part of a trader’s responsibility is market obervation. The trader has to wait patiently for the right moment before firing his “shot”.
USDJPY is overbought, my trading system signals SELL.
Shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 106.32
Stop level at 108.10
Target level at 104.69
Today I had shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 106.32, stop level at 108.10, target level at 104.69.
USDJPY fell below 104.69, so position is closed. Profit is 163 pips, US$311.40.