wow - lets see if we can break this momentum bar down alittle and see what is going on in price
This is a 3 min TF on that momentum bar - what we expect to see is price should cross above that pivot 0 and pick up supply then test pivot 1 at 1.1025 - supply is at 1.1082
Greetings from Singapore,
and thank you for sharing your insights on how to filter out weaker S&D zones.
I like your Volume ROC indicator, went looking for it in the internet, however I could not find anything that looks like yours. Would it be possible to know where to obtain it? How do you obtain reliable volume data for the currency pairs you trade?
Thanks a Million for your kind sharing.
Wolf
I found this volume roc on tradeinterceptor - tradeinterceptor I know deals with several brokers but I suspect this volume is most likely FOMC feed - the feed is enough to detect surges on all price time frames - the trick with tradeinterceptor is tolerating a charting system that is very difficult to work with
Price going to next demand - I think a 3 min tf is fair to see if volume will surge once price hits our second demand in momentum bar even a 2 min chart - the smaller timeframes show surges in volume quicker. For those who do not play SD - the smaller timeframes show are zones more accurately - in this case my first demand failed however we are coming up to the second demand which again we suspect buy orders have been left there - all we want to do is exploit this area at the price were large orders were placed. The bottom demand is 11 pips deep - your risk. 48 pips to bottom of the last failed demand - however I think the price will go back to supply in red rectangle - roughly 100 pips.
This is how euro finished - price low was 8 pips below the demand area - we got our surge in volume roc - I will follow this one. The target still remains the fresh supply above
Here is AudNzd 4 hr TF - upcoming events this week - aussie rate day Aug 4 1230AM - later on in day Kiwi GDT plus employment data. All blue rectangles represent the candlebars where the volume roc surged. Red represents traditional SD. There are a few things in play. First anyone reading this thread knows I target momentum bars - so recovery of our momentum bars to fresh demand at 1.0745. Second the volume roc has not thrown a new histogram bar to suggest a move down which makes you take a closer look at what price is doing. It is possible to say price is in structure - running flat - so we anticipate moves towards are fresh supply above(if this price is in structure it looks like a 3 move down 3 move up with a falling 5 move structure down - alternatively structure could also be 3 moves 5 moves and three moves). I will put up aussie and kiwi chart as well throughout weekend. So until we can see volume surging suggesting price move down the up target remains first bar of interest at traditional supply above(1.1138 to 1.1189)
LOL sorry I meant FXCM
This is the follow up chart to yen from Thursday. The traditional supply and demand in blue - notice when price returned to top supply that price did not go as deep into the zone - there remains a lot of sellers at that price point. Both demands were broken in green so they are not zones of interest any more. Price is tarageting the three bottom demand areas - the lowest being the bar of interest from the surging volume roc histogram bar. I will bring this to lower TF to see if our present price decline has built supply - because if supply was not built on this run down then there is nothing to keep price from flying back up. We want to break demand and replenish price on supply before falling again
Using SD trading we have to hunt smaller TF to find where supply or demand zones were created - were the balance disorder occurred - again the Volume roc is seen surging and again price is reacting - ok - was supply built - yes, I am going to show it on my 5 min tf - supply is in the wicks - put your chart to 2 or 3 min tf and you will see our stack of bars - those bars are order balance. We also created supply that price dropped out of and interesting we have a small pocket of demand at bottom however price should be able to remove this area - but still it exists and therefore a concern for price to drop. These three areas of SD are traditional -
to understand what Kiwi is doing we need to find our demand - this is extremely difficult as we are dealing with price points 6 years ago - and I think the best we can label this is reference points I agree with James there are no orders left here from 6 years ago. What we have is a pivot low to form bottom and a referenced demand area I will use as top - this is historical - we need to know what price is reacting to at this level
ok - we can see historically right up to this Friday how price points established from V roc effect price. We have a demand area taken from 2009. Price formed a higher low before exploding up - what we need to know did price place demand before exploding up - if so then that is the area price will head to and should hold price. So lower tf and see if we can identify anything on roc and find demand
Ok so we see why present price action stalled at this area from 2009, demand we placed. The 4 hr view above - V roc shows no interest in surging so did our latest momentum bar on Kiwi build demand. Yes it did in two areas - presently price is in demand. There is also a bar of interest and demand at bottom of momentum bar. If Kiwi is going to hold ground it will be off of one of these two demands. The 3 min tf on volume roc ended with only interest in pushing Kiwi lower - bottom demand is in play at .6545 zone is 7 pips deep. Alternatively if Kiwi pushes through our bars if interest right above and volume roc surges then the bar of interest and supply come into play
A good job and I wish success
Thank you maryo I needed an indicator to help identify zones - I see you are very good trader using SD I will take your message as a compliment. Kate
This is one hr aussie - price revisited demand before running to our mid supply at .7348 where we anticipated it would go. Notice how we have a nice stack of orders just above the supply level we were playing to - buyers and sellers were in equilibrium here before price dropped down. Also note we have a fresh supply level above where price has not touched yet. That was the historical look at this trade - now we need to know on the right side of chart what the momentum bar is doing - has it built demand to support price if not then price will easily slip back down. We will also keep in mind .7402 the untouched fresh supply level
Like Kiwi - we ran out of recent left side of chart so we need to establish reference points from years ago. We are going to use the wicks in the circled area - they contain are once demand. Price exceeded the low on this by 4 pips before pulling back into the zone. The zone is .7382 to .7241
ok - so back to the lower TF to establish if we have demand anywhere in this momentum bar - like kiwi we do. Price is presently in demand and at bar of interest, beyond this there is not demand till .7250 our bar of interest starts at .7263. The Vroc has no surges to indicate any impending move up - remember the longterm referenced demand top is at .7241, very close.
I made a statement on 5 min yen chart that needs to be corrected - the old demand in green that price broke through does have value as price plays out - look at our new supply zone red. New supply and demand will form above at or below the old zone. Thank you James
My teacher James sent me an article last night - and I think it will help anybody reading this thread follow supply and demand trading alittle easier