Trading Big News (NFP's)

Hey Guys!
(Sorry for some grammar mistakes, I’m not a native english speaker :slight_smile:)
- For reference, i recorded my screen while trading; feel free to watch it here: imgur .com /a/UjSxmgy -
Yesterday, i tried to (DEMO)trade the NFP-News. As you probably have heard: It was a huge miss. The expected numbers were 720k-750k and the actual numbers are only 235k!
As the numbers came out, the Dollar fell very fast! The EUR/USD rose in 3 minutes up 38 Pips to a major resistance level.
I tried to implement your strategy: Having 2 Orders (1 Buy Stop / 1 Sell Stop) for both potential outcomes.
As the numbers came out (08:30) the candle spiked instantly within 5 seconds - and despite my buy stop, i got filled 5 Pips above my stop price. I still made a good profit but if it would have reversed fast, my risk-reward-ratio would be very bad because the SL wouldn’t change.
I know, that is called slippage, but here comes my question:
Whose (Market/Stop/Limit)-orders get filled first? Are the retail traders with a low volume those who get filled last?
I think everyone would like to have the best entry price. But if (theoretically) everyone has a buy/stop order at the same price, who is getting the best possible entry?

And another little question: As you can see in my little video (around 10 seconds left), the SL/TP in the MT5 changed without me doing anything. The TP was on a lower price (which was reached) but because of the change, it didn’t got filled automatically. Luckily, i closed the trade manually but if that would be an EA, that could have ended in a big disaster.
Can you tell me why it changed? Is it MT5 or the market?

I’m looking forward to your answers! Have a good weekend! :slight_smile:

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I admire your courage for jumping into NFP. Having both a buy order and sell order is bracket trading and its a recognised trading technique. Its also about the only technique that might work when big news is going to cause unpredictable rapid price moves.

So your tactics were not wrong. However, this is also a gambling technique, for example in horse racing when you make an each-way bet - you bet the horse will win but also that the same horse will not win. Its OK to bet each way on a horse if you have no idea how good any of the horses are in the race - but betting on horses is just for fun, its not trading.

Given that you can not know which way price will move after the news, is NFP trading the best way to risk your capital?

Hey, thanks for your answer.
I am aware that trading big news is a very risky play. I would also never risk more than 1% of my capital.
But that was not really my question - it was more on the technical side, whose orders get filled first.
I mean, that could also happen on a major support level. Imagine many Traders placing a Buy Limit on a support level, which was tested multiple times in the history.
Let’s say, we try to hop on that train and placing our Buy Limit there. The price reaches the support level and gets rejected to the upside because many buyers come in.
But we didn’t get filled and miss a huge move. Who controls which orders get filled?
I can also post a screenshot on how the price of a currency pair bounces off a pivot point. I think that some people, who placed their Sell Limits there didn’t get filled.

I appreciate I didn’t answer your question - but I can’t bring my own knowledge to it as I am spreadbetting in the markets, it doesn’t work the same way.

So True

The numbers are rubbish, utterly useless.

Purpose for trading during NFP is in hope that we can strike the Jackpot (got the direction right) and cash in big in a relative short span of time. No doubt risking 1% can’t be wrong. I see 3 main issue here,

  1. Risk versus Reward ratio
  2. Probability of success
  3. Speed of execution

Unless the 3 problems can be safe and soundly addressed, IMHO it is simply not worth our time as a retail trader.

That’s when your S/L went from 1.8774 to 1.8845 right? I can’t enlarge the picture or observe the price at the time of the shift but it looked like it hit a new high after triggering the buy stop. I thought it was a trailing stop with your order but it’s still 5.2 pips below the price. I don’t think I’ve observed trailing stops move that way while still less than price.

The trailing stop in MT5 can be accessed if you right click on the price level on MT5 like so:
Trailing stop

If it’s not a trailing SL or some EA that’s dynamically moving the SL then I’d want to ask the broker tbh.

I’m going to try scalping a bit to see if the SL moves like this below price with a trailing SL. Was always under the impression it shouldn’t.

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Institutional trades will be filled first because the servers used by them have state of the art immediate response times. Most retail traders don’t have that capacity, and it’s not a volume issue, because it’s a trillion dollar daily market.

Also, it is not unusual for Brokers to increase their spreads when expecting big news events. TD365 a tier one FCA regulated broker has fixed spreads.

Might be worth a look.

Thanks for sharing the knowledge.

Generally I totally avoid news. I have seen people treated successfully but it’s not for me I don’t like extreme volatility

This is one of the questions I also ask. They have a lesson on this so from what I understand, our trades are basically just handled within our own broker bubble. So it’s not really centralized where there’d be x or y orders filled first.

Market orders are filled first because they have higher priority (executed at best available price which theoretically should be closer to mid price than limit orders). There is a rule called FIFO (first in first out) which means that if you placed order well ahead of release your trade will be executed at better price. However the downside of this that random spike can trigger your trade earlier and things will get quickly out of control