Oh with respect to NFP, the job numbers are better than expected which means we might see better NFP result. Historically Sep to Dec seems to good for jobs due to temporary hike in employment during the holiday season. So I think EU is going to go down further well below 1.2900 as it rejected 1.3000 twice in a matter a few days. Next week there will be face saving correction from UK on the EURO budget which will make the price go and test 1.3000 once more.
PS: My prediction above is a coin toss so know that my analysis might complete fall flat on its face.
Good to know you are safe Pete. 3 per cab,how is it working?
Tave,
Question: If you look at the examples in the 1500 thread most of the time the price reverses after a few high volume bar meaning marking the end of bring the price down so that the SM can start selling at a higher price. In the chart you posted the prices continued up, though it shows the supply wasnāt there but it doesnāt mean there was demand. So can you please brief me on how this resembles Peteās examples. I am still learning btw. Thanks.
All I can say is that Iām glad I wasnāt on for the G/U long setup I was looking at last night (0500 UTC). Touch of the trendline, 50-61.8, previous supportā¦ Volume spike was a little weak in the cash market, but the futures transaction volume showed a decent jump for that time of the night. The 5 minute even showed a nice fake breakout at about 0900 UTC before, well, breaking out for real on the downside. :18: Pretty aggressive selling this morning after NFP in US markets, as well. Canāt win 'em all!
Iām just outside NYC (most of new york state is not city). The problem is getting gas (fuel, petro). People are waiting up to 6 hours!! Not only for their cars but for their generators. Now thereās a rule that based on your plate number you are only allowed to buy gas on certain days!! Thank God I have powerā¦itās really horrible for some. Itās been cold at night. Youtube: Sandy Staten Island, youāll see some of the worst of it. Our comfortable lives can become suddenly very uncomfortableā¦[B]know how good you have it[/B].
Anyway, the only trade I was able to take this week was E/J short on Thursday. Buy climax at the top and targeted support. It was an off day with serious lack of correlation, which is not the best environment and I figured I wasnāt taking a trade, but the setup appeared and of course I trust them.
Oh I heard and have seen some videos. I heard about NJ rationing gas as well. Did they markup the gas prices? I hope they get the basic needs back to normal ASAP. I lived in Syracuse (Orange ) for a couple of years working on my masters so I have been to NYC quite a few times and I could recognize lot of places from the pictures.
I didnāt trade on Friday but the market did move as I predicted. still learning so no hurry.
No, I havenāt heard that gas prices are up. Personally Iām staying homeā¦warm and cozy. Itās still a bit crazy out there.
Yep, predicting news moves can definitely come from following the storyline on the charts.
ā¦When I post, sometimes I just start talking generally to everyone reading even though I quoted one person lol.
Good to hear your doing fine after Sandy Pete looks like some people really copped it I had a look at those youtube videos really horrible.
I am looking at the AUD USD tonight I will explain what I am looking at wanted to get your opinion Pete if you have a few moments or others who might be looking at the same thing.
I am looking for a Short on the AUD USD.
Confluence 1 Hour Chart:
Fib Tool on down trend
So I have used wave count and am looking for the 5th wave to bounce off the 61.8 fib
The 61.8 fib is also lining up with a previous resistance zone for previous highs
I will be looking for stopping volume as we enter into the London session as a confirmation with potential no demand signal on 5 minute chart.
Do you think this is a valid setup? How can I improve this setup?
See the previous support (at your 38.2 fib) turned resistance? Thatās an important level to mark. Supp becomes Res.
Secondly, if you draw the fib at the previous swing high, rather than the one before it, that level I mentioned also lands in a fib zone. Now you see why it didnāt reach your fib zone and was more likely to turn down from there?
If Iām going to include multiple swings in my fib, I tend to do it when a bottom/top is suggested ie. end of 5 waves, stopping volume etc.
I was contemplating a short entry today after the 1500 UTC candle closed on higher volume at previous resistance, but the 1600 candle closed a bit higher on lower volume. It might sell off, but I think Iām going to stand aside on this one. What do you all think?
Please excuse the futures datafeed, by the wayā¦ Iām on the road for work, and only have my Mac with me (no MT4).
I actually like thinkorswims volume feed. Any how I think I would have sat this one out myself just due to the fact that you long entry provided you get stopping volume in that area would be a decent entry but with the rate drop most likely coming for the Auusie I just dont know about any longs right now.
How ever I am still trying to learn the VSA thing working on it day by day. Just typically I dont get to trade high volume times of day so that does hinder my learning somewhat
Iām honestly not thinking about the fundamental aspects of the currencyā¦Iāll just be watching that area to see if the demand comes in.
From my foray into scalping ES 1 point at a time, I can say from personal experience that trading isnāt about being right, itās about making money. If demand comes in on that trendline bounce, Iāll easily take it due to the very good risk/reward ratio. Heck, Iāll probably still put it on even if the volume doesnāt spike. Weāre still making higher highs and higher lows.
Thanks Pete appreciate your help. I will do as you mentioned and place the fibs on the previous swing high instead of the one before it and take note of the different key levels.
Should be interesting to see if the RBA drops rates today, two interesting things happening here today rate cuts and the Melbourne cup :).
That would be a sign of strength/accumulation BUTā¦and itās a bit clearer on E/U, there is [I]supply[/I]. Looks like what I call a failed markup is in the making. 5 min shows it best. Higher prices still attracting selling.
