Trading Confluence with Petefader

Hmmm that is true. Just looks to me like a great place to put a TP. Get in collect your money and get the hell out :slight_smile:

Risk it for a biscuit - wrong end of the day but lets seeā€¦


Itā€™s true that volume did not confirm but with the 4 other points of confluence that I mentioned, itā€™s trade-able, just more risky.
Hereā€™s the thing. We saw the high volume SM positioning short off the top that I pointed out. We know SM likes to sell into upmoves to get into position. Can one buy anticipating that up move firstā€¦well, personal preference.

Also think of when I make a prediction. Iā€™ll say price will test a level, then turn for the trade opportunity. Trading it on the way to that level is an opportunity, just definitely more on the aggressive side. We can look at it like that and sayā€¦we saw sellers at the top, but also a reason for price to go back, expecting they would sell again. Ends up being a trade-able fake break setup to short btw.

So itā€™s not just stacking confluence, but following the story line and knowing the level off aggressiveness you want to trade.


Jim, that last setup you posted was genius, but this is a little crazy cowboy to me haha. To catch a falling knifeā€¦not in my repertoire lol. In such an extreme case, I would wait for the bullish reaction at least. I definitely see your reasons though.
Wouldnā€™t mind seeing it bounce now that stops on longs just got hit and newbies should chase it downā€¦learn them a lesson today lol.

Crazy cowboy lol, more like bored cowboy - itā€™s starting to look less and less great with each 5 minute bar ā€¦ sigh

Having no patience is my greatest psychological barrier that I need to overcome.

There is a firefox plugin called ā€œEasy YouTube Video Downloaderā€ that will add a download link to all youtube video pages. There are other plugins for firefox and chrome as well.

I like to download the videos so i can watch them at 1.5x - 2x speed in vlc. It saves me a ton of time.

Pete, would you be able to offer some clarification on this for me?

On the H1 chart you can see that price rejected nicely in the 50-61.8 with just tails poking through which we know is fine in terms of your usual strategy.
However, on the 5 minute we can see that price pierced through the zone - would this tell you to leave the trade alone according to your rules? Does price need to not close below the fib zone down to the 5 minute to stay valid?

Thanks in advanceā€¦



Hi Petefader,

First of all I would like to congratulate you on starting up this new thread, makes sense to discuss news tools outside of your VSA system. :slight_smile:

Secondly, could you please give me the link of your recorded webinar when it is done. Iā€™m sorry I could not attend it because I never new you started this new thread until I found out yesterday. Thanks.

Ideally I donā€™t want any 5 min candles closing below/above 61.8. The only case I would allow it and still take the trade is shown on your chart. High volume rejecting the lower prices and quickly bringing it back into the zone. Overwhelming demand shown there. If it were to sit past 61.8 on medium/low volume, then at the very least we would say that volume is no longer confirming the setup and has lost a considerable amount of probability. Iā€™d be likely to skip it.

Iā€™m noticing looking at your chart, there was not yet a ā€œno supplyā€ signal, broke 61.8 with lower prices showing high volume (demand) the a bullish reaction which is key to confirming that demand. Then, you get a no supply on the very next candle and up it goes. How it acts past 61.8 is key.

Thanks for that. Yes it certainly does make sense doesnā€™t it lol.

Uggh, this video fileā€¦ok Iā€™ll explain so you can share my pain lol. I recorded it with gotowebinar. My screen share was not running for about the first 12 minutes of the session, intentionally. 12 minutes in is when the video data of the file begins. It just has black screen the first 12 minutes while I speak, when I watch in my windows media player. When I uploaded it to youtube, the video and audio start together making the A/V timing about 12 minutes off! Itā€™s impossible to watch. I tried putting it into movie maker and exporting it to upload that new file, but it freezes and wont export.

The info will get to you guys. Maybe Iā€™ll make some regular videos soon. Sorry about that.

Ok, weā€™ll forgive ya this time, but next timeā€¦!!!

No problem Petefader, looking forward to your future videos when they work correctly :wink:

Lol @ Sweet Pip :slight_smile:

Pete,

Like your youtube posts on VSA and joined this as a result - look forward to seeing more.

Robert

Hi Pete, I have just found your thread. I like your trading idea and the way you analyse whatā€™s going on behind the price action vs volume, & hope to learn a lot more about it. I just started trading real acct & still struggle to make positive pips :34:
Iā€™m not quite familiar with some terms using here, e.g. VSA/phase, H&S, SR stuffs. But thatā€™s my problem, not yours. I will try to catch up with your previous two threads asapā€¦ but will take some time as both are over 300 pages :o:56:

Btw, in order to attend your webinar, what tool do I need to install?

Just as a quick helper:

VSA - Volume Spread Analysis - this is an adaptation by Tom Williams of Wyckoffs original theories on tracking the actions of ā€œSmart Moneyā€ using volume and price bars. There are phases within VSA such as Accumulation and Distribution, Mark up and Mark down etc. You should read Master the Markets by Tom Williams as a starting point (Iā€™ve now read it three times before it properly made sense). Iā€™m pretty sure Pete linked to the book for free on his previous threads, not hard to find a copy when googled anyway.
S/R is support and resistance - have a look at the Babypips school for more info on this. Chris Lori is also a good source for trading S/R (google for his webinars).
H&S - Head and Shoulders. One of many technical analysis formations, along with double tops/bottoms. Again, babypips school is your friend.

I hope this helps a little.

Thanks jimbohargā€¦ thatā€™s a great help for me to start off with!
I have googled & downloaded Master the Markets, will try to read on so that I can catch up with you guys in this threadā€¦

Feel free to ask questions in here. Someone will answer you, no problem. (thanks Jim).
I use Webinar & Online Conference | GoToWebinar for live webinars.

Surprise! The webinar is getting posted on youtube after all. I have to upload it in parts thoughā€¦long story.
All the parts should be uploaded shortly. Probably about 6.

PART 1:

1 Like

PART 2:

1 Like

PART 3:

More parts to comeā€¦