So I normally try to stay out of the market when medium to high impact information is released, but for this election I might go in.
I have been doing research on Hillary and Trump and how the market reacts to their polls. For example USD/JPY and USD/CHF rise with Hillary and fall with Trump. I feel that when the candidate is chosen, (lets just say Hillary wins and I am looking at USD/CHF for example purposes) Both currencies will surge upward then fall slightly back down in about a few minutes. After this they will rise at a constant rate until they hit the first major resistance point.
I hate both candidates but I think Hillary will win simply because the US has more declared Democrats and undecided/independent voters will vote more the more mild mannered nominee.
When placing my trade should I go in before the precedent is named, or should I wait until the first major rally then place my trade.
Does this seem somewhat plausible or too risky? and if so is what I said a good way to execute it?
i watched a video today advising to place a trade when the first of the close call states come in with their results Eg Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada. Then place your trade and hope for the best as its a good indication of who will win. Of course its all very risky so caution is the name of the game. Also they guy said before the last results get out of your trade as then it might pull back quite a bit. I’m no expert and not American so I too have been looking to see what the advice is. Main thing I think is to make sure you don’t trade big and put in stops. If it all goes pear shaped at least you don’t blow your account.
Maybe you should take look one the chart and placed you short much earlier today , you dont see the gap and price do not close the gap ,and price is falling
Clinton will win , Hate is often synonym for I’m a idiot my brain is not open for fact.
[B]Market figure out and start to react that Clinton will win sunday to monday when market was open [/B]
If your strategy was designed to work in normal market conditions I would rather trade it in normal market conditions, because now they are far from normal. Trading elections is like gambling.
You’re right to advise caution. Due to the potential for high volatility many forex brokers (FXCM included) have temporarily increased margin requirements for the US elections. Furthermore, while polls strongly favor a Clinton victory, the chance of a possible Brexit-like upset is on everyone’s mind. For that reason, below are some points to consider from a recent Bloomberg article:
[I]
[ul]
[li]“While a Trump victory will probably be bad for Mexico and Canada, there is no consensus on what could be its impact on the currency market or on U.S. equities, China in the long term, Derek Halpenny, strategist at MUFG says in interview”
[/li][li]“If Trump wins, FX liquidity could be worse than Brexit, says Nomura’s head of G-10 FX options Andy Soper”
[/li][li]“On such a scenario, liquidity will be bad for both options and cash market; he expects to see a “good 3-5% gap” in the yen exchange rate and a 5-8% market gap in the Mexican peso”
[/li][li]“Traditional stop loss orders may still limit downside but at times of reduced liquidity the slippage or executed rate of the stop loss may be larger than during ’normal’ trading periods and losses could be greater”
[/li][li]“A Trump win will be marked by illiquidity two days after results, according to London-based trader”
[/li][/ul][/I]
Hi guys. So what happened with your trades (if any)? It turned out that Clinton wasn’t that certain winner. I guess only the media made us think she would win…
Yep, the bets was around 6:1 against Trump, and yet he won. I haven’t traded anything like stated earlier and watching charts now I think it was a very good idea.
I am not trade when election day, because also I don’t having time to keep update the market because I am on my offline job but when I see the chart after go home occur large movement on several instrument trading, gold also many major pair
I watching video if Trump as winner
When there is something uncertain ahead there is an easy play on Gold. Wait for a good pullback ($10-20) then simply buy gold (or other safe heaven). Simple as that.
Generally markets favored Clinton, including US Dollar as Clinton+FED=Friends and rate hike in December becomes the case. Now its not quite clear if the FED will hike rates in December because Trump plans can push US into abyss You can now consider playing short on US Dollar, also keep in mind that markets often try to fool majority so try to turn a blind eye on evident things…
Great point! (It’s actually a key reason we use the Speculative Sentiment Index as a contrarian indicator for forex trades.) The majority was guessing US stocks would tank today, yet the Dow reached new highs.
It was a very high impact event that really had a roller coaster in the forex market. I didn’t trade as I avoid trading on such events. Better safe than worry I would say.
The market was going crazy during the Elections, especially when they announced that Trump is the new US president. And the funny thing is that no one expected this so the market reacted really shockingly. So I guess we should be really careful in the next few days as I read that Trump plans to overhaul the Federal Reserve and that scares the investors a bit. The US dollar and the US stocks are counting some losses so if we plan to trade some of these instruments we should definitely go short.
For how long we are going to be expecting the market to be volatile after the elections? Do you guys think, it should go back to stable movements on the next week? Well, after Trumps victory anything could happen… :S
I think that next week things will start to return back to normal, at least temporary. However, the changes in economic policy that will inevitably come could shake up the market again at any given time.
Yes I think so too, certain broker they increasing margin requirement and spread from 8 november till 14 november, so might next week market will being normal again
Many american people already voted and bring Trump as president
The US election is come and gone with a very much unexpected Donald Trump victory. For now the Mexican Peso is really struggling in the currency market as the victory of Donald trump never meant the best of US foreign relationship with Mexico.
After this unexpected US election result I guess the main question is how the market will react in the upcoming decisions and politics that Trump will follow. Will he keep all of his promises made during the presidential campaign? If yes, then I guess we will be facing more sharp market movements.
My trading strategy is very simple, I basically use technical clue of market! That’s way, most of the time I avoid high voltage news session like this one! Even, I avoided 1st weeks of this month! Because, my fundamental knowledge is not enough! By the way; now just started news analysis! Because, for being a successful Forex trader, both are important!
You can now consider playing short on US Dollar, also keep in mind that markets often try to fool majority so try to turn a blind eye on evident things…