I recently watched a video on the commodities market on youtube. At the core that got my attention was the fact that they can cause scarcity and are actually getting into the producer game.
I have an affinity for the Robin Hood types and Paul Tudor Jones has come up with the “Just” index, He himself is a very successful trader and the name of his index is called the “JUST” index.
As to be more insightful, the World Trade organization has useful information on trade partners, and their are specific sites that allow you to better formulate ones trading.
I was actually misguided on several occasions that caused me years of having an accurate and timely understanding of the market. I would say if all information where readily available then based on speculation in particular being a “zero sum game” then no one would be on the losing side, and all would be forced to be value investors, potentially, thereby creating jobs and supporting the economy.
I had have an assumption that those “irrational” and “unexpected” movements in the market are, as a factor, speculators causing a type of scarcity in some area as to make the odds more in their favor.
Key points to take away that I didn’t mention, Interest Rates and the cost to borrow are important to the lenders and borrowers, inflation is important to the economy as well as, hypothetically suppose inflation where out of control globally where would the best place to keep ones money, the discount and reserve rate are also important not to mention unemployment data. This each have an opportunity to increase volatility in the market. A favorable factor when there is no volatility is to trade in larger volumes and technically if no new information is available not excluding alternative data sources. High volume trades are typically at the core of HFT.
It takes real staying power and a wanting for the “feel of the market” to gain in consistency.
For sure, the in-depth understanding of processes behing the price movement is necessary for trading success. Each trader should know the main fundamental factors that can impact prices.
Sometimes it could be “win-win” situation when markets are moving to the new highs and everyone makes profit (excluding possible short sellers who think that the market is overheated and try to short it). At the same time, such situation could be only on equities markets. Forex market always moves inside the range, even if it is large due to the nature of underlying assets (currencies). That is why value investment approach could not be applied to Forex trading. Thus, most of the traders try to benefit from the short time movements inside this range. These movements may last from several minutes to even several weeks.
The nature of the movements is also different. Large institutional players could cause price changes just by executing their orders on equities market, while on the Forex market price could be changed just by the general behaviour of most of the market participants.