So I understand how you have a target which will define your reward and with that get your ratio, but analysis and trading are 2 very different things. To be fair to all, it’s unrealistic to say that with every pattern you will see your target hit, but that’s not to say you can’t make it a nice and profitable trade. Maybe your style is diff than mine though. For instance, this summer and early fall, I noticed that the volatility in general and the price action off of the patterns was pretty tame, and my realized ratio was roughly 1.5:1, and I had to work hard taking profits to get that. Basically I wasn’t able to take anything like we ALMOST got in this morning on the GBPUSD, which would have been near 5:1 for me! Now looking at another sample for Oct-Dec my ratio was 2:1. Of course you have to think over the longer timeframe.
In the last 6 months + I’ve been focusing on taking profits and trading with 5 layers has helped me with that a lot. When i was trading with just 1 future I had so many times when I watched paper profits evaporate!
I am very curious about your Cypher pattern though. I haven’t looked for those and I’m sure I would have to train my eyes for a while. It’s basically just a retracement off of an ABCD pattern, and it sounds like you as well as others have had very high success rates with them? I may have to try a few, using the exact ratios you define. Keep us updated with any you see forming!
I have never seen any hard numbers of any study done on this SPECIFIC pattern. I have on other patterns which is why i use them but i would never trade my own hard earned cash under “he said they were good” or “she said they were good”. I’d start logging my own trades and getting my own statistics and coming to my own conclusion. the only reason why i say this and especially with this “cyper” pattern is because a certain guy who “released” this pattern did so just before he launched some crazy thousands of dollars priced course. it was all just marketing to get some attention from what i can tell because there are no statistics on this, unlike the other patterns.
With that being said i’m all for harmonics, but i stick with the core patterns: gartley, bat, butterfly, crab you don’t need anything more than that.
yeh there are very wide bars coming into it. thats along with the fact that its the end of friday and eurgbp is in a massive downtrend made me stay out. i might still have a look when the market re-opens.
yeh i’ve had very high success rates with the cypher. i remember when i first started trading them i had 14 wins in a row!!! i haven’t had that again but i’d say its around 65-75%
the ratios are as follows:
A-B should be between the .318 and .618 of X-A with no close beyond the .618
B-C should be between the 1.272 and 1.414 expansion of X-A with no close beyond the 1.414
D should then be the .786 of X-C
stops should be beyond D and targets are .318 and .618 of C-D if trading 2 positions
Who came up with this one? I did a bit of a search but really haven’t heard about it until this thread. I just trade gartleys and butterflys, as they seem to quantify swings in the market that makes sense to me. Just expansions and contractions of the market.
i think a group called trade empowered came up with it. to be honest I’m not sure though. a lot of people trade it as far as i have seen, i first heard about it in a harmonics thread at forexfactory
Hi there pips. I’m glad I found this thread. I mainly use PA and SR in my trading. I’m really a fan of the Fib method but don’t know how to use it really.I just initially appreciate the literature behind it (the golden mean and all that stuff). Just started reading the work of Carney and harmonic trading and I think it made sense of its application in the financial markets. Well, I found USDCAD forming a potential reversal set-up. My question, Sam, is can I short this pair when it breaks the previous candle’s low at 1.9605 with SL of the high and TP at .886 of X-A?
Hey jeebs and welcome to the thread. To be honest mate with the strength of the trend running into that trade I personally wouldnt take a short. I would wait for it to complete and take the long from the D. You wouls have the momentum on your side then. I always like to trade with the trend when possible
Hey fire and welcome to the thread. Yep im definitely with you on higher tf’s. I dont trade anything below the H1 and usually trade from H4 or Daily. Nice looking charts mate
hey mate i just saw this post. yes i agree it does change but for me the average is somewhere around 1:2. i would be very interested to hear a bit more about the 5 layer system you use if you care to share??
just had a look at this particular pattern and if it does complete it looks very nice. D has almost perfect confluence of the .886 of X-A and the 1.618 of B-C
Hey jeebs and welcome to the thread. To be honest mate with the strength of the trend running into that trade I personally wouldnt take a short. I would wait for it to complete and take the long from the D. You wouls have the momentum on your side then. I always like to trade with the trend when possible[/QUOTE]
Does not look like a clean bearish reversal pin either. Guess will just wait for the setup to be complete. Thanks Sam!
Check out the daily on USDCAD. Very long term patterns potentially completing at both the 1.27 and 1.618. Would need a nice gartley retracement for me to short, but will be interesting to see if this area is important.
