Trading in the real world

Social media and YouTube aren’t helping in that respect. Too much, “trade from home in your underwear all day and make millions” going on.

Love this analogy!

Absolutely! :slight_smile: Admittedly, I rarely look at anything on either of these, I have no “some” myself. But from the general comments made by many people, I am sure it must be so.

At least, that seems to be @Lang15’s opinion about forex salespeople on “some” such as Instagram.

It is really strange if one stops to think about it. If it really were that easy then all the institutions and businesses would be rolling in it along with millions of individuals swarming all over their dream islands. So where are they?

It is so wierd how a badly craved for dream completely shuts down people’s eyes and brains to reality.

Hopefully this thread is a reality check on the real world of trading - even if it bores people even down to their underwear! :slight_smile:

Time for a coffee! :joy:

Now you talking my language

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Glad to be back to the day job today , short term scalping looks fun and profitable but in reality it is a stressful downward spiral as the risk reward will eventually take the profits back as breeds over trading a known account killer.

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Once again, there are a lot of issues packed into this video.

As I see it, there are two important issues here: One is pre-planning and controlling trades and the other is scaling/splitting positions. I want to talk here about the first of these, planning and control. (I’ll come back to scaling in the next post).

There is a well-known saying that:

“a job well planned is a job half done”.

@lang15 spends a lot of time emphasising his analysis and planning his trade even before he sits down at the screen. I think this is very important. And the end result is what one could call a “mental map” of the day’s trade. In the same way as an athlete mentally plays out the run or the jump or the throw before physically doing it, the trader should have a clear road map or where the market is, where it is likely to go, how far it can be expected to reverse, and where is that red-lined point that tells that the whole scenario was wrong.

One issue here for traders is what instruments to look at. Some people can carry a mental map of many instruments, others, like myself, tend to work better specializing in just one. This is a personal issue. But the need for pre-analysis and the building of a mental map of the chart and its likely progress is the same.

When you know where price is and where it’s been and what is the surrounding “landscape” (indicators, PA, etc), then you can build your predictions for the price continuation. You are in control and you know what you are going to do at pre-defined points in either direction, entries and exits, etc, as the movements unfold. You are positioned something like this:

The point is that we humans always expect, and look for, sense, reason and logic in the markets. This kind of “pre-flight” checklist and analysis of current conditions is an essential part of that. It does not mean the unexpected will never happen – but it will have provided a pre-set definition of what to do if and when the unexpected does occur.

This is why scalping is so difficult. On the micro level, price movement is not based on sense, reason or logic. It is just the surface ripples of a massive free market responding to the huge array of differing activities constantly taking place in the market. Our market is not just a mass of retail speculators. It is also full of businesses doing international trade and investments. And even the retail and professional speculative trading is based on a vast range of differing time scales and entry/exit criteria. Even a simple MA is used by millions of traders with period settings ranging from 3 through to 200 or more. One could almost say that at every pip there is someone in the world with a reason to act at that price!!!

So whereas controlled and planned trading is like the bridge on the ship, scalping is more like a fun ride on:

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Very good read , I traded multi-able assets simply because I have time to work through the charts . your pic of the rollercoaster is bang on. Secret to success is simply to be focus on a single process and repeat similar to a golfer looking for that perfect swing

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OK, so maybe a few thoughts on scaling/splitting positions.

This is a topic that often divides opinions. Some favour scaling into winning positions. I.e. when an initial position reaches a defined profit level, move the stoploss to B/E and add another position. The first position is now more or less risk free and so overall exposure risk remains the same but additional gains accrue at a greater rate across the total combined position. This is good in a long trend.

Others may prefer to enter the entire position at the start of each move and then close out parts of the position as the trade progresses, i.e. banking profits along the way. Some may leave the last portion of the position with a trailing stop (manual or automated) so that the final tranche exit only comes once the move has topped out and reversed to the trailed stop level.

Both these scaling techniques apply to positions that are in profit.

Other traders may take an opposite view and open only part of their total position initially and add to it at certain stages as the price inevitably moves into loss territory. In practice, no initial trade is opened exactly on a high or low and there will always be a certain amount of back-tracking before the trade moves into profit. If the market moves sufficiently far then the total position is eventually opened with an overall average price that is much better than the initial position.

The difficulty with this kind of scaling in is where to place the additional entry orders. If they are too near the initial part-entry then the price may continue far into the adverse direction and build a significant open loss position that puts a lot of stress on the trader and the equity position. There is also the risk that the original view was wrong and that a reversal is taking place and one is creating the proverbial “catching a falling knife” type situation. So it is critical to have a clear and definitive level where a hard stop is placed to kill the complete trade if necessary.

The other problem here is if the market does not actually retrace much at all and the other orders don’t get filled. Although the trade wins, it only earns with a partial position which damages the overall gain/loss ratio over time because losses will, by definition, always be a full position but the gains are with a partial position size.

In Langer’s video above, he manages these two “risks” in a rather smart way. Only one sixth of the total position is placed as an order under the market and so most of the position is already in place initially and in 5 tranches. In addition, (if I have understood it right) he then scales out of the position as it progresses. In this kind of trading scenario, the pre-planning is even more critical in defining levels in the adverse direction to a) optimise additional entry levels, and b) avoid an excessive total loss whenever the market crashes straight though all the levels and hits the hard stop!

For newcomers, scaling may not be a viable option if equity is limited and margin requirements/risk parameters only allow a minimal position size. In which case, a simple target and stop will suffice! :smile:

Did we get inside glimpse of the Scuffytrader SW analysis spreadsheet there at the beginning? :smiley: Some kind of points scale given to all the crosses and a resultant Strong v. Weak summary? Another glimpse into just part of the essential pre-planning that underpins the day’s actual trading.

But we also got a very heartfelt insight into the life of one full-time trader. Some may say it is pessimism, others may say it is realism. Personally, I think it is very real and is only a starter in analysing the reality and pressures of being a full-time trader (compared with being a trader full-time but with a job, a different thing altogether).

Although superficially, there is the “freedom” of being one’s own boss, in reality all traders still have a very strict boss – the market itself! One cannot pick and choose when, where and how one is going to trade whenever one happens to feel like it. One often hears the expression that “Price is king” and that is true, You cannot ignore the market. The market dictates what your end result is going to be and that depends on how you choose to listen and go with it. Cross it and you will lose.

Many self-employed people say they are more tied to their work than they were working for a company. For example, you cannot say no to a customer even when you are overloaded with work and you cannot make more customers when you have no work to do. Our markets are kind of similar. You have to trade it when and how it permits, not just when it happens to suit you. That is not entirely “freedom”!

But maybe the biggest lesson in this video is the money. Langers earns a good day’s wage here. But his position size is much bigger than the typical newcomer. He may trade $30 a pip whereas a learner is looking at 30c a pip. So the same work input and the same screen time and the same position management ends up with a day’s wage of about 3 dollars. Obviously, that is not workable. But to think that one is going to start bringing in even $200 consistently every day on a beginners’s equity is clearly nonsensical. That should make people think very seriously about aiming to trade full-time.

It is one thing for us more long-term traders to decide to trade full-time but an entirely different situation for young people with a whole working life ahead. If one does not have a working skill or professional education and relies on making it in trading then if it fails they have nothing left to fall back on. This might be ok while one is young and single, but is a different matter when one is married, with kids and wanting to find success in life.

In trading you are only as successful as your last trade. You are driving into the future with only the rear mirror and side windows to guide you, the windscreen in front is only a hope and a dream. Things change. Markets change, regulatory measures change, our emotional characteristics change, our needs and desires from life, even our health, may change.

For example, these videos show a great insight into one man’s trading environment. But one could ask would he be happy with the same routine for another 10-15 years and he might well say “yes, that’s fine with me”. But at the age of 20-25 could one answer the same? If not, then one needs to also think, if this succeeds, where do I want it to lead to?

If you can make the big money fast then that is easy to answer. But how many do succeed from small beginnings to that kind of money? Can you?

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well, to scalp the markets, you’ll need the right broker and platform, and not short time frames.
But also another thing. Scalping has never been profitable, as we all know the 90/90 in trading keeps circulating in circle of doom. by being a retail trader you trade the markets how they want you to trade it. being a pro trader stipulates something much different comparing to what the other 90% of losers do.
90% will lose capital or bomb their accounts within 90 days…and the broker? well he has got 90 days to make sure that you do, so they will be sending you info, analysis signals ect ect. No broker likes a successful trader, they are annoying,. So the broker has got 90 days to rape you, do you think he will wait till day 90? for sure not mates,let get on with it then…lets rape him. Perfect explanation of a broker luring you in with its options on the table and services they offer.
you become the bitch as a retail trader. the brokers bitch.

That my friends is why you need to be on the opposite side of the 90% that lose… Doesn’t matter if we talk about discipline, patience or character. Be the bigger guy. Be open minded and professional enough to know these things.

Actually I had already decided to cease posting here due to the lack of interest (I hate just talking to myself). But maybe I’ll add a few words here.

This so-called 90/90/90 rule is factually shown to be largely untrue nowadays. For example, under current regulatory rules issued by ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority), European brokers have to actually declare the level of retail clients losing money - and they are hardly likely to exaggerate their numbers! This currently stands at around 70-75% with most such brokers, e.g.:

Forex.com (UK):
" CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72 % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money."

Whilst this only covers European brokers, other regulatory authorities are also tightening their grip on brokers, for example, by lowering maximum leverage and enforcing negative equity protection.

Nowadays, it is a fallacy that brokers in general do not want clients to win. It is only the style of the earlier times “bucket-shop” type brokers to live off Newbie traders’ equity, and in any case, in most cases it is the traders themselves that lose their own money without any “help” from the broker! These same non-regulated, or dubiously regulated, firms are also the ones guilty of spread manipulation, etc. But, these are, in my opinion, a dying breed.

The mainstream, properly regulated brokers want to see clients with long and successful trading accounts. If a trader is not winning consistently then he is not increasing his trading position size and no broker is going to make a living from a handful of microlots. It is a simple thing for a broker to pass large positions through to the real market and hedge (or partially hedge) their exposure.

So the real message to newcomers is to always select a well-capitalised, reputable broker that is properly regulated and with segregated client funds. Many of these brokers are also working on improving their own in-house training material.

So, in my opinion, that entire post is about 10 years out of date and only relates to the most nefarious brokers that somehow still seem to exist here and there in the remaining remote corners of the globe- and who still manage to squeeze funds out of the most gullible of wishful thinkers.

So, having said that, I’ll go back into hibernation… :zipper_mouth_face:

Yeah…uh…its ok mate. i do understand now why you are talking to yourself here.
you have a lot to learn

I wouldnt be suprised if the number is actually higher than 90%.
The brokers tells you that 72% lost money, but first you dont know in which timeframe, it could be in 3 months or 6, the higher the timeframe the higher the number will have a tendency to grow. Second because 72% lost money doesnt mean the other 28% made money, most brokers probably have a significant number of accounts that dont have funds in them, and those accounts didnt lost money but didnt make money either.

No they actually want you to deposit as much as you can, and blow the account as fast as you can, thats why they used to offer 1:500 leverage some even more.

Well you are 100% right on that one! :+1::crazy_face: Glad we can agree on something!

"I wouldn’t be surprised” is another way of saying “i dont know”
So thanks for your opinions and conjecture! :grinning:
BTW not only is leverage limited to 30% in many cases amongst reputable, regulated brokers, it is not compulsory for traders to use excessively high leverage even when they are available!
But, like i said, the brokers do not have to do anything to make clients lose money since at least some 70% do that through their own naivity and inexperience. This site is filled with threads on how and why newcomers lose.

But whatever the losing percentage is, it is far too high. But simply crying about it or just repeatedly pointing the finger just at the remaining bucket shops in this business is not going to help anyone do better!

There are a lot of experienced traders willing to help newcomers but unless they work at it like in any other profession they will never get anywhere. That is obvious!

But every profitable trader (and i don’t mean those make-believe millionaires) started somewhere and eventually got there. And “there” simply means consistently profitable, having already withdrawn at least their original own funds, and finding a comfort level for risk exposure.

I don’t know if you are a serious poster here or just another weekend troll, but your comments are on topic concerning trading in the real world so i thank you for your thoughts! :+1::grinning:

Note that you use past tense “used to”!

That is the whole point. No one is saying that brokers (or most any other business) are saints. Of course they make their money where they can! But the world changes, and the broker business response with it.

In those olden times, there was a constant flow of newbies with money to pour down the drain thinking they just might make a fortune. And, of course, brokers were not going to say no to that income! But that does not mean they were not also interested in the big size traders who make money and trade regularly.

But times have changed and the regulators have entered the ring and brokers needed to refocus their interests and client base. This means not only are the risks to Newbies more transparent but they are also more limited in what risks they can take via leverage.

So the broker income profile changes and their business strategy changes, at least within the areas properly regulated. Of course, there are still regions and administrations willing to allow the bucket shops to set up and, for some reason, still many newcomers willing to bless them with their savings.

The world is full of pitfalls and, as they say, “Fools and their money are soon parted”. Which also points to the fact that the entry criteria to retail trading is far too low and permits even the most unsuited people to risk their money - which in my opinion (and, yes, it is only an opinion) is one of the greatest reasons for so many people losing their money very quickly.

According to your bio you joined 13 hours ago and straight away to attack a long term contibutor and very successful trader in @anon46773462

The idea of this site is to provide content that others will either find interesting and or informative.

So may I suggest you introduce yourself and tell us what type of trader you are and what you hope to gain from this site.

Blackduck

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You are spot on with this comment. I have been with the brokers I use for most of my trading career and rarely have I had to contact them with any problem. However when I have they have been incredible helpful and very professional.

It will be sad to see you go as personally I enjoy your contribution to this site.

Cheers

Blackduck

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This is an interesting comment. One minute you are saying you need the right market right broker and platform and no short timeframes. The next minute you are saying that scalping has never been profitable.

So please explain!! What is the right market, what is the right broker platform and timeframe?? And can you or can you not scalp and be profitable???

Blackduck

Very large financial markets include: Forex, Stock, Future, BO, Bonds, and more. and within these markets are a lot of trading products. As such, all cash flows will be heavily distributed throughout the world.
And only the person standing above can see where this money is concentrated. For retail traders who have money, they are not sure to buy such investment information :face_with_thermometer: