Trading is 80% psychology and 20% strategy: Is this really true?

Enduring a robust stragy can be difficult because robust strategies don’t make pips every month, maybe there are 3-6 months of DD .
You need a lot of patience so psychology is needed.
Having said that all the patience and the discipline of the world won’t turn a losing strategy into a winning one.
You pick a ruleset from your favorite blogger/youtuber, you code it, you test it and in 99.9% of cases it will lose pips every year.

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Psychology is the first thing people blame, but how many of them take the time to fix the problem? Most people will blame psychology but on the next day they will go back to the system and try to figure out what went wrong with the system, and what about the psychologic part? How many of them take the time to fix the problem.
I once saw a guy in a video saying that trading is an art and people try to turn it into a science, and i think he is right, people try to put it into a science and into a system.
They want the system in order to take the psycologic factor out of the way. You do this when you find a setup and repeat, repeat, repeat, you place a 20 pip stop and a 40 pip take profit, you have a 1:2 RR and all should be good.
Why do most fail then? In my opinion is because a trader should be flexible, sometimes you have to be greedy and sometimes you have to control and reduce risk, Sometimes market conditions are good, sometimes they are bad, sometimes there is more volatility some times there is less, sometimes market will range more, sometimes will trend more. This system that people hope to find and repeat for a long time to become rich doesnt exist.
Trading is very hard psychologically because you will have to trust more in your future decisions and in yourself instead of your system. Your system will fail at a certain point the question a trader faces is if his decisions will fail him at some point in the future.
Nothing is guaranteed, there will always be that doubt in your head.

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Very good point and I have to agree that trading is an art not a science.

Mechanical systems (probably more the science of trading) are great to start with because they are SUPPOSED TO take the psychological aspect of trading out of the decision making process. To a point this works but it limits the ability of the trader to take advantage of the unpredictablility of the market. The other problem is that the rules surrounding the mechanical system take diligence and discpline to apply and that can be very difficult for a lot of traders especially newbies.

Discretionary traders which employ more of the art of trading which allows for instinctive re-action to what buyers and sellers in the market are doing and then profiting from that market volatility. There is something to be said for a gut feeling, something that most experienced and successful traders are able to use.

Just my opinion.

Cheers

Blackduck

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@Blackduck

I use a mechanical approach for the simple reason if I used a discretionary style id be constantly second guessing myself.

My own discretion comes from the markets I’m choosing to trade at any one time and partly in position sizing.

But it really is up to what fits best for the individual - I guess one trait of a more experienced trader is in knowing their weak points and so avoiding them

I avoid mine like the plague these days. For beginners what they think we may be good at, and what they actually are are often not the same thing.

However I also agree trading is an art, mechanical systems for me just make some sense out of all the chaos

Please don’t think that I am against mechanical systems. I have used them in the past and in a lot of ways the discretionary decisions I make in trading have an element of mechanicalism in that process.

However I see certain types of price action happening and I know it’s a great time to buy or sell.

Whatever works and whatever makes money I’m all for. :+1: :wine_glass:

Cheers

Blackduck

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Manually Filter Market… Automated entries… Manually managed trades… Automated Exits…

No procrastination… Less stressed trading, entry & exits either meet your strategies criteria or not…

Keep it simple…

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@Blackduck

Also I think it’s partly down to how much you want to get involved in the trading process

I figured out along time ago the less interaction I have with markets the better I do.

In short, I am quite a lazy trader, a mechanical approach works well for this.

Using discretion would have me following too many moving parts for my liking.

Im happiest when I can place my orders for a day and literally just stay away.

Of course with the advent of the smart phone that’s harder.

Infact I think one of the worst things for traders is constant access via a mobile.

I’ve lost count of th stupid trades I’ve placed because of it.

Very true.

And that’s why I said it doesn’t matter what your trading style so long as you make money.

But the thread talks about science verses art and that’s all I was trying to address.

Cheers

Blackduck

@Johnscott31

Here is a chart of the AUD Futures contract that I am currently trading. I am currently long.

However if you read what I have put on the chart I am seriously looking at pulling the pin on this trade for a break even trade as I believe that this trade will fail.

That is using my discretion.

I have a bad feeling about this trade.

Cheers

Blackduck

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@Blackduck

If you pull out and your decision turns out to be wrong - would you then at all beat yourself up for not being more disciplined?

That’s my own personal experience

Definately not. Sometimes I get it right sometimes I get it wrong.

The bottom line is that if I exit at break even I have saved that capital to live and fight another day. The question is what if I leave that trade and it fails and I lose $200??

I never regret my decisions because I always have a strong reason and a conviction for either taking a trade or exiting a trade.

Cheers

Blackduck

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Because the setup is a loser :rofl:
Psychology is a good excuse for trading coaches to convince you that you are the problem and you don’t make pips with a simple losing strategy.
Than you learn algo and you bust everyone.
If psychology would make the difference there will be many psychologists with 3+ years of trackrecord.
Every business con be frustrating, but a psychologist won’t turn a bad business into a good one.

@CavaliereVerde

I do agree that a losing strategy is a losing strategy regardless of psychology

I also think the idea you can or should lose your emotions is futile.

But are suggesting that psychology doesn’t play a part in trading and it’s a red herring?

For my own part I liken it to performance anxiety amongst pro sports players - it can become a total nightmare for some but without talent, or a system to begin with you ain’t gonna be successful in the first place

Psychology helps to endure DD, just like in every business that do not print money every month, it gives you the patience necessary to wait long term success.

Unfortunatelly 99% of traders are executing a losing strategy and they are not aware of it, and psychology won’t help them.
Psychology is needed for the 1% of traders that are running a winning strategy.

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So question is what algo do you use?? How do you use it?? and how profitable are you??

Algo is great if you are a genius at programming but not everyone has that skill.

Also I have yet to see the results of trading by so called successful algo traders. This makes me believe that algo trading is all hocus pocus

Prove me wrong!!

Cheers

Blackduck

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Here it is! :slight_smile:
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/CavaliereVerde

You dont’ have to be a genius to code a strategy.
I am not a programmer I am a chemist but everyone that studied a bit of high school programming is able to code a system with 2-3 conditions.
BTW coding a strategy is the simple and funny part.
Th difficult part is optimizing parameters in a robust way without overfitting.

Algo is not the Grail but I am waiting for a manual trader to show me 5 years of trackrecord, I would be superhappy with 3 … :wink:

I coded and tested a lot of stuff so i know what I ma speaking about when I say that 99% of strategies that make sense do not make pips, no matter the discipline and psychology of the trader.

I’m a lawyer and computors weren’t invented when I was at school.

You don’t want much.

Cheers

Blackduck

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My opinion is that it is ok the other way, that is , 80% strategy & 20% psychology. We are emotional because we are humans. It is the different emotions that is making us humans. My question is why blame yourself saying you are emotional while trading, instead, try to find a strategy & make it as mechanical as possible. If there are 3 conditions to be met before your entry according to the system, then tell yourself that you’ll be entering when all those conditions are met only, deliberately do this for many many days & soon this’ll become a habit. Even then it’s not working , then it’s the strategy which needs to be changed, don’t try to become emotionless.

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This is almost like asking if the chicken or egg came first.

But frankly, strategy would definitely be the more important thing. I wouldn’t dissect them into ratios or percentages but having a strategy that you have back tested, forward tested, demo tested and spent a lot of time modifying and making sure it works would definitely come first.

Eventually when a newbie steps into the arena, even after having spent a long time testing their strategy, psychology will definitely have an effect on them. In fact, I would say it doesn’t only affect newbies.

But without a good strategy, having a strong mindset wouldn’t make you profitable either.

Having a winning strategy will improve that mindset and groom you to understand that your strategy does work and that gives you a positive energy stepping into the arena - when you know half the battle is won. The other half is actually sticking to your strategy and not letting off.

On top of the 100% mentioned, the remaining 10% comes from you knowing when your strategy is really not working and telling the mindset part of yourself to stop and restart. Redo your strategy and step back into the game.

That’s where you give your 110%.

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You wrote: “There is actually no psychology required. Its the law, we just follow the rules …”
However, just following the rules requires discipline, and discipline requires psychology.
Personally, I believe trading is likely closer to 90% psychology. Strategies often fail but the mindset of a trader demands discipline, and thus strong psychology.

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