So, based on these results I should focus on entering trades AFTER the S/R bounce. I have to undo the habit in my brain.
I can feel the cognitive dissonance in my brain. My brain still wants to anticipate bounces, but these results show that’s not the best way for me.
The momentum trades, I understand.
But the S/R bounce trades will take some getting used to.
Brilliant progress. Backtesting may show that the S/R bounce trades may not be profitable in the long run, unless combined with other indicators. If you are trading S/R bounce, and a million other retail traders are doing the same, the banks will just love taking out the stops. If you are in the minority, working areas that are not popular, you will stand a far better chance than those simply looking for bounce confirmation.
I noticed that everyday I would review all the charts and make a list.
I would take the trades I wanted, then forget the rest. Repeat the next day.
What I should do is keep the list and work that list for the rest of the week or longer.
This would save me some work and time.
I wanted to limit myself to just 5 currencies. There’s only one that has a set up for me. After that, I have to wait a while for the next set-up. Boring…
So, just as a test, I reviewed all the charts and made a list of upcoming setups.
I would like to focus on this list. There’s 20+ pairs on that list. I won’t be necessarily trading all of them, but I’ll be watching them.
I could get set ups anywhere between now and the next month.
Some are short term, some are long term.
This should help me focus. Let’s see.
This is something I’ll have to think about. Trading bounces are tricky. I don’t want to be shark food!
To be honest, I like the idea of momentum and swing trading much better. Less work, for one reason.
Another reason is avoiding the slice and dice that goes on once price is trending.
Breakouts are choppy. But entering before the breakout would be nice. Then you can just sit back and watch the bloodbath from a distance.
But getting in early is difficult. I’ll be keeping a closer eye out.
I had just posted about trading S/R bounces. I had said that it’s best to trade AFTER the bounce confirmation.
And today, I was doing the exact opposite of what I just said!
I heard a voice in my head: “But this time will be different. It’s definitely going to bounce clean off those lines.”
I was trading some JPY exotics and one of them had hit the SL. I saw how JPY wasn’t gonna bounce, but keep going.
I seriously didn’t want to delete my other orders. But, I realised how hipocritical I was being. I went back and deleted those orders.
It was really tough to do. Reversing those synapsis in your brain is no joke.
The first step to reversing a habit is the hardest, I guess.
There is a part of me that wants to focus on trading momentum, and reduce my attention given to bounces.
I’m getting to the point where I could spend all day staring at the charts. And it’s not necessary at all.
It may not even be healthy.
Looking for trades on the D1 should be a 2 hour task on a good day. 4 at the most, if the market is about to start cooking.
But 5 or 6…that’s just another job. The idea should be more money, less time. Not the other way around.
I just read this thread and I have to admit that I have occasionally experienced some burnout. I have to keep in mind that this endeavor is not a sprint, but a marathon. Taking a day off from the charts won’t kill me.
The idea of trading off daily charts is, in principle, to base your trade set-ups on the closing level of each day. From that level you deduce your orders or market entries for the next day’s trading. This shouldn’t take very long.
If you are watching the daily charts for 4 hours or more then are you not effectively trading short term, intraday, off a daily candle? Which, in a way, is pre-empting the close for the current day? This is a symptom of over -enthusiasm, which is entirely natural but needs either inhibiting or, maybe even better, utilising it more productively!
One way of dealing with this is what is I call day-trading off daily charts. After each daily close you assess what you think is the likely move for the following day based on your daily strategy. Then use a different intraday strategy to look for signals when the market begins doing what you have anticipated and then enter your trade with your short term parameters. If you are wrong on the daily direction then you either get no trade (and no loss!) or a limited loss as determined by your intraday strategy. But when you are right you gain the full amount of your short-term strategy target (which could be, for example, a trailing stop with an open profit upside to gain the full benefit of a strong daily move, and even a carry- through to the next day if the daily charts at the EOD seem to still favour the direction).
Just some thoughts…
You may be on to something here…
Perhaps more productive. I look thru a lot of charts. I should count them to illustrate a better picture. All the EUR, GBP, USD, CHF, JPY, and AUD
pairs. I never counted. But it could be as much as 35 pairs.
I could do that and pull the potential charts for the next week or two.
Then, I would have a lot fewer charts to spend time with.
I’m still figuring out my routine, but I’m definitely in the process of reducing the time in front of the charts.
Also keep in mind that I don’t trade for 4 hour straight. That time includes taking breaks.
I was just listening to David Paul and he was talking about taking 3-4 trades per MONTH. That may not be a bad idea.
I made a list of about 20+ pairs. Of those pairs, about 10 or so had some potential. I ended up taking about 3 trades. We’ll see how that goes. But I could feel the struggle of exercising such discretion.
The key is trading less. But taking less bad trades. Being patient and willing not to trade is the difference.
That would be hard for me to adjust to. Having no trades running.
It would seriously make me feel weird. The market is open, and I should be making money. This is my current attitide. And it’s wrong. It really is.
It’s being busy for the sake of being busy.
If I’m going after this sniper style, I have to be willing to watch the market for 3 weeks and take not a single trade.
That’s nuts. It’s hard to imagine. But you know what’s worse? Your account dropping 20% in one month.
Not trading is better than losing money, any day of the week.
I’ve taken numerous trades that I thought, “it could go up, and I don’t wanna miss out in case it does.”
It’s the wrong way to trade for me. Technically, you could say that about any move. But does that set up fit your strategy? That’s the point. Otherwise, it’s random. Same as rolling dice.
It’s easy to say all this now, because the alleged set up is not in front of me. Saying no in the moment is totally different.
Hello my friend,
Welcome to the University of project management life. Two years ago on an assignment, a close colleague of mine and I had an opportunity to work together and to formalize the concept of “the factory model” - his terminology. We adopted his terminology in favour of my own “cookie cutter model” which I admittedly first used in anger working on a global project that was managed from the USA (hence the name cookie cutter).
What you have identified here is the absolute mayhem and frustration that anyone in unfamiliar territory goes through when first being let loose on the Forex market with a trading account and some spare time on their hands.
You are well on the way to improvement. There is a saying that goes “you can’t improve what you can’t measure”, so the conclusion from this obvious statement is that you must start measuring.
I can tell you from personal experience of two years ago that my colleague and I managed a 20X improvement of effort to complete a complex transition project. What took sixteen weeks for the first country ended up taking 12 weeks for 16 countries in parallel three months later. That was because as we moved through the discovery exercise of the transition for the first country, we measured every step, minimized or eliminated unnecessary steps then “rewrote the book” and did four countries at once four times per week. It was thought not possible by our leadership, but we achieved all goals three weeks earlier than planned and with a 95% satisfaction rating from end use customers. The faster you hit them, the less time they have to think about moaning.
I have fashioned my own trading plan on that basis - the factory model, and this answers many questions about “how can you check all those pairs every period”? The answer is - you don’t. You don’t check a pair that is a thousand miles from your zone of interest - not every day anyway. Perhaps every week or two. And with Cryptos it’s less than once per month.
Keep that measurement and analysis going. It will pay huge dividends by improving the quality of your setups, entries, management and exits.
I did my trading this morning.
I found myself still looking at bounces. They are quite tempting. However, I’m walking away from several set ups. Often pairs will retrace to the MA. Either the 20, which would be often the closest, or it could retrace back to the MA90 which could be pretty far away.
But what if there’s a TL you expect price to bounce, but there’s a MA nearby?
It could bounce your TL, or break thru your TL and keep going until that MA.
In that scenario, I’ll take that trade. But the risk will be small, 0.15% of my account. That’s the percent of the dollar amount I’m comfortable with for these bounce trades. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong small.
If I’m wrong, I’ll wait until price hits that TL.
There were several trades I walked away from. I wanted to trade GBP/USD today, but I decided there are too many possible outcomes. It could do this, that, this then that, etc. It was so tempting, but I walked away from it.
I was thinking about trading momentum only. Some swing trends last weeks. If you miss it, you gotta wait. So, I could be waiting three weeks. In the mean time I’d like to trade bounces.
To be honest, I’d hate to open a trade, and then do nothing for two weeks. I mean, there are bounces I could be trading in my other account.
Maybe that’s faulty thinking. I can’t tell if that’s restlessness or diligence.
I counted how many pairs I’ve been monitoring. It’s a total of 62. Jeez.
No wonder I’m taking so long in the morning. I didn’t realise I was watching so many.
There are several that aren’t tradeable. So I just take a look for a few seconds. Such as RUB. There’s nothing to trade, but I just keep an eye.
I was scared to do this because if I’m not trying to trade like crazy, I’m a bit lost. But it’s time.
I read this post:
This is my manifesto:
This month of October will be different for me. I cannot say I will be more profitable at the end of this month. But I can say that I will be a better trader at the end of this month.
“Better” is vague. I will be a more patient trader. I want to reduce my S/R trades to 3 per day. That may seem like a lot, but my brain is operating on the idea that busier is better.
This is not part of a profitable strategy. It’s actually detrimental. And it’s also a waste of time.
Placing a number is more concrete than “trading less”.
This includes placing orders.
I posted earlier about a David Paul presentation. He mentioned the idea of waiting and taking only 3-4 trades per month. If I had just 5-8 losses, but 2 or 3 winning swing trades, that’s very good.
But this process won’t happen by itself. My plan is to pay more attention to swing trades, and less to S/R trades.
I still have to review all my charts, but I can probably delete the ones that don’t trend at all on the W1. No point trading RUB.
This whole morning routine will still take several hours because I’m looking thru so many charts, and taking notes of what to watch.
But perhaps keeping that list will leep me from reviewing all the charts; instead I can just review that week’s pickings.
This morning, I placed one order and two bounce trades.
I’m scanning charts for organizational purposes, and I’m seeing S/R trades I should take.
But I said three. So, I acknowledge them aaaaaand…I leave them alone.
It’s tough, but setting a limit number to my bounce trades instead of “trading less” is very helpful.
This morning, I placed just two trades. One if them was AUD/USD.
It’s finally breaking out past a TL I drew. It danced around it for two days. The candle closed outside of it, so I opened a long position.
Another position’s buy limit order got triggered, finally.
Other than that, no more trading today.
I have plenty liquidity, but I also have enough positions opem. I want to open more, but I kinda prefer to just hold on right now.
Tomorrow’s another day.
I’ve been meaning to study some charts for the past few weeks.
I’m finally getting to it. As I analyze a single swing-consolidation-swing period, I see so many of my ideas fall apart.
It’s both sad and liberating.
My brain is seriously stuck on the idea of more trading=more money.
It’s a real mess. I think I need more study before I keep chasing bounces and sideways trends.
I have a book about trading ranges. I really like that book.
I’m jumping the gun, but I’m challenging my ideas about ranges. Trading consolidation can be profitable, but not all ranges are profitable. And not all sideways markets.
A sideways market could be a terribly choppy range. Meanwhile, here I go jumping in trying to catch money boucing around in a blender. Sure, I may catch some coins, but in the end my hand got shredded.
Was it really worth it? Is the problem me or the blender?? Right now, I don’t know. I need to think about it more.
Part of me wonders if some trading books are strictly about selling a dream.
Trading ranges and channels can be profitable. The books show you the complete picture. The best examples.
When they make it look easy, you think that technique is better than your current one.
But what the books don’t tell you is the patience that comes along with that strategy.
You have to wait for those types of ideal set ups. In the book you see a channel. So you jump in just like in the book. Well, the book’s technique mixed with your own fear and greed, and Bam!! Stopped out. Again and again.
I heard a speaker talk about the idea of “side B”. Nobody talks about side B. They sell you “side A” with the pictures, clean entry and clear exits.
They don’t tell you that “side B” is drawing TLs and creating a channel out of a trend that’s not a channel; price pulling back to the MA90 and market makers pushing the price lower beyond the support then going on a bull run.
But you lost twice: the support bounce, and the short trade because you thought price was breaking support.
Part of me wants to skip the small trades and just focus on the big swings.
Another part of me is scared to do that because I believe that more trading=more money.
But that’s not true. More trading=more opportunities.
But those opportunities mean profit or loss.
You could suffer 20 losses, and that one win convinces you that your strategy works.
Instead that profit should be a sign that something is wrong. You should realise that you’re willing to forget about that entire losing streak just because of a single win. That’s a problem.
That’s not a winning strategy. Just do the math. Your account balance is lower this month. That one win means nothing. Sure, use it as motivatiom to keep going. But something has to change.
Sorry guys. This is a bit of a rant. It’s not directed to anyone. I’m just talking to myself, actually.
I looked at a single swing/consolidation period and I think about where I would have lost and what I should have done…
I’m gonna keep studying…
Sometimes, you just need a break. Yesterday, I was studying charts, backtesting and analyzing.
I was feeling great. And then I started feeling lost.
I wasn’t sure if it was me or my strategy that was confused.
I started feeling frustrated and lost. I continued a bit longer and just closed my laptop. I had enough.
Today, I’m looking at my charts and I’m seeing opportunities that I missed because I didn’t follow up properly.
Duly noted. I’ll follow my spreadsheet notes more. But it inspired me to keep going. One opportunity I missed matched my strategy EXACTLY! Just 2 days ago on the D1!
Sure, I missed it, but that means my strategy works. I just have to wait. They’re out there!! Just wait, wait, wait…
I have been sensing some kind of paradox in your situation for some time now. I really hate writing anything that can be construed as negative but I will say this much:
You seem to be working in the realms of longer term charts like daily and weekly and yet there is constantly a sense of frustration that things don’t happen fast enough for you. You seem to be more distraught over a lack of trades than you are over any losses that occur.
I just wonder are you really trading the right timeframes to suit your character? I know a lot of people claim that dailies are more reliable and one stands a better chance of success with long term charts. But there are those of us that are more than content and successful on the shorter end,too.
Both styles have there pros and cons and a lot of it relates to our character. As the saying goes, we are all wired differently, and that means we need to be sure that our trading style is really in synch with our personality and characteristics.
I just wonder is there a conflict here in your trading method? I really hope two things:
That you do not find this offensive
That you are not one of these Bots that have been brought to notice recently 
Haha.
No, and no.
Yes. Fair observation. I am frustrated. But the frustration comes from my impatience, mostly. There actually is a part of me that thinks more trades = more money.
I’m slowly battling that part of me.
I don’t obssess over the losses. I can’t let my losses dictate how I feel. However, they do provide clues to how I can improve.
I’m trying to teach myself that waiting can be more useful than trading.
However, while waiting for those specific trades, there are S/R trades. Yet even those require patience.
Not carpet-bomb trading strategy, either. But precision.
This morning, I reviewed my W1 charts. For a moment, I told myself to hurry up because it was taking so long. But I stopped myself and said “hey, take your time, relax. Take whatever time you need and think about what you’re seeing in the charts.”
That actually made me feel better. Also because right now, I do forex for 30 minutes, then rest for 10. This helps me to keep a pace and keep going. As opposed to 1 hour of work and 15 minutes of rest, which will burn me out.
As I took my time, I could see the error is trades I was planning on taking. This is a nice feeling.
This is certainly a factor in my frustration, I must admit. But I think most of my frustration comes with battling my inner demons and telling the difference between an entry signal and a set of candles that I WANT to be an entry.
But you know what? After studying charts, I realise that just because I get stopped out, that doesn’t mean my strategy is wrong.
There are times that a pair will hit resistance and continue bullish, and then 3 days later retest resistance and turn bearish.
So, being wrong once doesn’t mean, give up on that pair for the rest of the week.
Because if you don’t pay attention you’ll miss out on the move you were expecting.
But you could lose 3x in a row with that pair. Just be patient and keep watching closely.
My problem was watching so many pairs that I couldn’t see those kinds of details. I miss a move, on to the next pair.
This is why it’s good to watch fewer pairs.
My thought process was (and kinda still is) more pairs=more opportunities to trade.
That COULD be the case, but it takes a lot of time to go through that many pairs. You’d have to be sure not to burn yourself out before getting to proper setups.
Also, you’d have to have a system keeping track of that many pairs. I use an excel spreadsheet.
I’m trading less pairs and I’m getting to know my spreadsheet system. Following up on my own notes is important. I’m using notes and a color-coding system to remind me which trades are most important to keep an eye on.
Building the habit is difficult. There are times I go thru my spreadsheet and I forget some elements, only to remember later what I forgot to do.
It’s a process.
I want to be a better trader in some aspect by the of this month. I don’t think I’m doing a good job. I can do better.
I have just a few setups I’m watching. I think I need to keep studying charts. That’s pretty helpful.
Btw, I hope @dxbtrader comes back. I liked his thread.
I’m pretty much done with my trading. Later today I’ll be studying charts.
I opened my trades, and set my orders. Just a few straddles, just in case. Not many because I’d like to see how price reverses before I reverse my position.
My total risk exposure (with pending limit orders) is 3.2%
My max is 4.6%, so I’m way under that.
I’m expecting JPY to go up. We’ll see what happens.
It’s kinda dancing around resistance right now but just starting to show a sprinkle of bearishness.
I finished my work in 4 hours, including breaks. Not bad.
There are some charts that perhaps I should look at, but those charts I noted yesterday as having no setups or I already missed it.
Besides, I’d rather not take any more trades for now.
Yesterday, I placed a 0.75% risk trade. And I lost. I didn’t like losing that much, to be honest. I’m going back to sticking with my 0.43% risk. For now, that’s my max.
I’m very comfortable with that.