Trading journal

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
391

I did my trading this morning.

I found myself still looking at bounces. They are quite tempting. However, I’m walking away from several set ups. Often pairs will retrace to the MA. Either the 20, which would be often the closest, or it could retrace back to the MA90 which could be pretty far away.

But what if there’s a TL you expect price to bounce, but there’s a MA nearby?

It could bounce your TL, or break thru your TL and keep going until that MA.

In that scenario, I’ll take that trade. But the risk will be small, 0.15% of my account. That’s the percent of the dollar amount I’m comfortable with for these bounce trades. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong small.

If I’m wrong, I’ll wait until price hits that TL.

There were several trades I walked away from. I wanted to trade GBP/USD today, but I decided there are too many possible outcomes. It could do this, that, this then that, etc. It was so tempting, but I walked away from it.

I was thinking about trading momentum only. Some swing trends last weeks. If you miss it, you gotta wait. So, I could be waiting three weeks. In the mean time I’d like to trade bounces.

To be honest, I’d hate to open a trade, and then do nothing for two weeks. I mean, there are bounces I could be trading in my other account.

Maybe that’s faulty thinking. I can’t tell if that’s restlessness or diligence.

392

I counted how many pairs I’ve been monitoring. It’s a total of 62. Jeez.

No wonder I’m taking so long in the morning. I didn’t realise I was watching so many.

There are several that aren’t tradeable. So I just take a look for a few seconds. Such as RUB. There’s nothing to trade, but I just keep an eye.

393

I was scared to do this because if I’m not trying to trade like crazy, I’m a bit lost. But it’s time.

I read this post:

This is my manifesto:
This month of October will be different for me. I cannot say I will be more profitable at the end of this month. But I can say that I will be a better trader at the end of this month.

“Better” is vague. I will be a more patient trader. I want to reduce my S/R trades to 3 per day. That may seem like a lot, but my brain is operating on the idea that busier is better.

This is not part of a profitable strategy. It’s actually detrimental. And it’s also a waste of time.

Placing a number is more concrete than “trading less”.

This includes placing orders.

I posted earlier about a David Paul presentation. He mentioned the idea of waiting and taking only 3-4 trades per month. If I had just 5-8 losses, but 2 or 3 winning swing trades, that’s very good.

But this process won’t happen by itself. My plan is to pay more attention to swing trades, and less to S/R trades.

I still have to review all my charts, but I can probably delete the ones that don’t trend at all on the W1. No point trading RUB.

This whole morning routine will still take several hours because I’m looking thru so many charts, and taking notes of what to watch.

But perhaps keeping that list will leep me from reviewing all the charts; instead I can just review that week’s pickings.

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395

This morning, I placed one order and two bounce trades.

I’m scanning charts for organizational purposes, and I’m seeing S/R trades I should take.

But I said three. So, I acknowledge them aaaaaand…I leave them alone.

It’s tough, but setting a limit number to my bounce trades instead of “trading less” is very helpful.

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396

This morning, I placed just two trades. One if them was AUD/USD.

It’s finally breaking out past a TL I drew. It danced around it for two days. The candle closed outside of it, so I opened a long position.

Another position’s buy limit order got triggered, finally.

Other than that, no more trading today.

I have plenty liquidity, but I also have enough positions opem. I want to open more, but I kinda prefer to just hold on right now.

Tomorrow’s another day.

I’ve been meaning to study some charts for the past few weeks.

I’m finally getting to it. As I analyze a single swing-consolidation-swing period, I see so many of my ideas fall apart.

It’s both sad and liberating.

My brain is seriously stuck on the idea of more trading=more money.

It’s a real mess. I think I need more study before I keep chasing bounces and sideways trends.

I have a book about trading ranges. I really like that book.

I’m jumping the gun, but I’m challenging my ideas about ranges. Trading consolidation can be profitable, but not all ranges are profitable. And not all sideways markets.

A sideways market could be a terribly choppy range. Meanwhile, here I go jumping in trying to catch money boucing around in a blender. Sure, I may catch some coins, but in the end my hand got shredded.

Was it really worth it? Is the problem me or the blender?? Right now, I don’t know. I need to think about it more.

Part of me wonders if some trading books are strictly about selling a dream.

Trading ranges and channels can be profitable. The books show you the complete picture. The best examples.

When they make it look easy, you think that technique is better than your current one.

But what the books don’t tell you is the patience that comes along with that strategy.

You have to wait for those types of ideal set ups. In the book you see a channel. So you jump in just like in the book. Well, the book’s technique mixed with your own fear and greed, and Bam!! Stopped out. Again and again.

I heard a speaker talk about the idea of “side B”. Nobody talks about side B. They sell you “side A” with the pictures, clean entry and clear exits.

They don’t tell you that “side B” is drawing TLs and creating a channel out of a trend that’s not a channel; price pulling back to the MA90 and market makers pushing the price lower beyond the support then going on a bull run.

But you lost twice: the support bounce, and the short trade because you thought price was breaking support.

Part of me wants to skip the small trades and just focus on the big swings.

Another part of me is scared to do that because I believe that more trading=more money.

But that’s not true. More trading=more opportunities.

But those opportunities mean profit or loss.

You could suffer 20 losses, and that one win convinces you that your strategy works.

Instead that profit should be a sign that something is wrong. You should realise that you’re willing to forget about that entire losing streak just because of a single win. That’s a problem.

That’s not a winning strategy. Just do the math. Your account balance is lower this month. That one win means nothing. Sure, use it as motivatiom to keep going. But something has to change.

Sorry guys. This is a bit of a rant. It’s not directed to anyone. I’m just talking to myself, actually.

I looked at a single swing/consolidation period and I think about where I would have lost and what I should have done…

I’m gonna keep studying…

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397

Sometimes, you just need a break. Yesterday, I was studying charts, backtesting and analyzing.

I was feeling great. And then I started feeling lost.

I wasn’t sure if it was me or my strategy that was confused.

I started feeling frustrated and lost. I continued a bit longer and just closed my laptop. I had enough.

Today, I’m looking at my charts and I’m seeing opportunities that I missed because I didn’t follow up properly.

Duly noted. I’ll follow my spreadsheet notes more. But it inspired me to keep going. One opportunity I missed matched my strategy EXACTLY! Just 2 days ago on the D1!

Sure, I missed it, but that means my strategy works. I just have to wait. They’re out there!! Just wait, wait, wait…

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398

I have been sensing some kind of paradox in your situation for some time now. I really hate writing anything that can be construed as negative but I will say this much:

You seem to be working in the realms of longer term charts like daily and weekly and yet there is constantly a sense of frustration that things don’t happen fast enough for you. You seem to be more distraught over a lack of trades than you are over any losses that occur.

I just wonder are you really trading the right timeframes to suit your character? I know a lot of people claim that dailies are more reliable and one stands a better chance of success with long term charts. But there are those of us that are more than content and successful on the shorter end,too.

Both styles have there pros and cons and a lot of it relates to our character. As the saying goes, we are all wired differently, and that means we need to be sure that our trading style is really in synch with our personality and characteristics.

I just wonder is there a conflict here in your trading method? I really hope two things:

  1. That you do not find this offensive

  2. That you are not one of these Bots that have been brought to notice recently :slight_smile:

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399

Haha.

No, and no.

Yes. Fair observation. I am frustrated. But the frustration comes from my impatience, mostly. There actually is a part of me that thinks more trades = more money.

I’m slowly battling that part of me.

I don’t obssess over the losses. I can’t let my losses dictate how I feel. However, they do provide clues to how I can improve.

I’m trying to teach myself that waiting can be more useful than trading.

However, while waiting for those specific trades, there are S/R trades. Yet even those require patience.

Not carpet-bomb trading strategy, either. But precision.

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400

This morning, I reviewed my W1 charts. For a moment, I told myself to hurry up because it was taking so long. But I stopped myself and said “hey, take your time, relax. Take whatever time you need and think about what you’re seeing in the charts.”

That actually made me feel better. Also because right now, I do forex for 30 minutes, then rest for 10. This helps me to keep a pace and keep going. As opposed to 1 hour of work and 15 minutes of rest, which will burn me out.

As I took my time, I could see the error is trades I was planning on taking. This is a nice feeling.

401

This is certainly a factor in my frustration, I must admit. But I think most of my frustration comes with battling my inner demons and telling the difference between an entry signal and a set of candles that I WANT to be an entry.

But you know what? After studying charts, I realise that just because I get stopped out, that doesn’t mean my strategy is wrong.

There are times that a pair will hit resistance and continue bullish, and then 3 days later retest resistance and turn bearish.

So, being wrong once doesn’t mean, give up on that pair for the rest of the week.

Because if you don’t pay attention you’ll miss out on the move you were expecting.

But you could lose 3x in a row with that pair. Just be patient and keep watching closely.

My problem was watching so many pairs that I couldn’t see those kinds of details. I miss a move, on to the next pair.

This is why it’s good to watch fewer pairs.
My thought process was (and kinda still is) more pairs=more opportunities to trade.

That COULD be the case, but it takes a lot of time to go through that many pairs. You’d have to be sure not to burn yourself out before getting to proper setups.

Also, you’d have to have a system keeping track of that many pairs. I use an excel spreadsheet.

I’m trading less pairs and I’m getting to know my spreadsheet system. Following up on my own notes is important. I’m using notes and a color-coding system to remind me which trades are most important to keep an eye on.

Building the habit is difficult. There are times I go thru my spreadsheet and I forget some elements, only to remember later what I forgot to do.

It’s a process.

I want to be a better trader in some aspect by the of this month. I don’t think I’m doing a good job. I can do better.

I have just a few setups I’m watching. I think I need to keep studying charts. That’s pretty helpful.

Btw, I hope @dxbtrader comes back. I liked his thread.

402

I’m pretty much done with my trading. Later today I’ll be studying charts.

I opened my trades, and set my orders. Just a few straddles, just in case. Not many because I’d like to see how price reverses before I reverse my position.

My total risk exposure (with pending limit orders) is 3.2%

My max is 4.6%, so I’m way under that.

I’m expecting JPY to go up. We’ll see what happens.

It’s kinda dancing around resistance right now but just starting to show a sprinkle of bearishness.

I finished my work in 4 hours, including breaks. Not bad.

There are some charts that perhaps I should look at, but those charts I noted yesterday as having no setups or I already missed it.

Besides, I’d rather not take any more trades for now.

Yesterday, I placed a 0.75% risk trade. And I lost. I didn’t like losing that much, to be honest. I’m going back to sticking with my 0.43% risk. For now, that’s my max.

I’m very comfortable with that.

403

I’m taking time today to study charts and look at patterns.

Also, I’m also rethinking how to go about my strategy.

Multiple strategies, I guess. I’m still looking to trade swings and S/R bounces.

But, the trades often develop in different ways. They don’t all look the same until the opportunity is long gone, and the trend is complete.

I’m starting to work on a “if I see scenario A, use these signals for entry” type of plan.

I think this could help me be more concrete with my thoughts.

404

It actually feels good to write these things down on paper.

It kinda takes the thinking out of the equation, a bit.

JPY has been toying with me a bit this week. I’m thinking that it’s gonna go up and some of the crosses are gonna go down. CNH/JPY apprears to be turning bearish.

I don’t know if a few of the other JPY crosses will follow. I was feeling discouraged this morning.

I finished my trading and went back to sleep for a little while. Later this morning I went out for a bit and it helped me clear my mind.

My friend coincidently told me about a guy who struggled and eventuallt defied the odds and became successful.

It was encouraging.

The main ideas are “don’t quit” and “make small improvements”.

405

This morning, I finished my trading in 3 hours. Not bad.

I didn’t look for any new trades. I have enough for now.

I’m waiting for some better signals before I open any more positions, or add to anything else.

I’ve been studying swing trades for the past week or so. So much to study in those swings.

I started looking for a nice channel to study, and observe the bounces, but I didn’t find any clean examples right away.

That got me thinking about the possibility of putting S/R trades on paise for a while.

I’m not so sure about it yet. But trading bounces, the R:R is less,
compared to swings. I mean, the reward is lower compared to swings.

But there are waaaay more bounce trades than swings, that means way more opportunities to lose and less reward if you’re right.

With swings, however, the rewards are higher.

406

This week, I was feeling more reluctant to do my trading.

I’m not sure if it’s the losses, or burnout.

I think maybe I need a break for a day. I don’t know…

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407

A reply in support from a friend. Take that break - one day or more. The market will still be there when you return. During the break, try to think of any activity in your life that you have neglected in your pursuit of Forex, and try to rebuild your work plan to include any thing you have neglected that you still care about. It’s called life normalisation, and is good for all of us from time to time. I look forward to seeing you back, refreshed.
:+1:

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408

I’m probably still talking rubbish to you here but I can’t help thinking that you are approaching your trading like someone who wants to learn to juggle - but instead of starting off with one ball, getting the movements working, then adding another ball, then another, then another, you are trying to keep 28 balls in the air from day one while you are still learning. i.e. the ultimate in FOMO?

Trading should be a progressive activity, but I am not really seeing the development here. It is certainly not for me to suggest anything to you, but you may like to thin out the field a bit until you have a winning strategy that works in some of the battles before taking on the whole war.

Trading is not actually that difficult at all and it need not be time-consuming either. Afterall, the price can only go either up or down. So you just need a process that a) defines the most probable next direction and b) how far it is likely to go (has it got legs). After that, just stick with the A1 trade set-ups (patience and discipline) and aim for a modest slice of the anticipated move (no greed!).

Something else to ponder:

All this effort is only worthwhile if you eventually reach the stage where you can trade size big enough to earn decent money consistently (what one defines as “decent” money is subjective, of course, but is surely more than just a fistful of dollars per month?). But will you ever be able to increase your position size sufficient to achieve that unless you have developed a strong confidence in your approach that has a track record? One really needs to make that “confidence level” a number one target. Without that, there is no really worthwhile end result, just years of struggling. And achieving that confidence level is not going to happen without cast iron discipline and a systematic, methodical approach to developing one’s trading strategy.

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409

I’m doing my trading now.

I checked all my W1 charts and took notes of which trades to place.

Just a few days ago I told myself what type of trades I should be focusing on and how to trade them.

I was about to start placing orders, until I realised I completely forgot about my plan and was about to just keep trading as I usually do.

Changing habits is tough. Before I actually start placing some orders and giving myself the green light to open positions once the market opens, I’m taking a few minutes to read over my plan.

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410

This morning, no new trades.

I checked up on my open positions, and that’s it.

I took time creating lists of pairs to watch. The list is long but I’m only looking for consolidation/reversals.

Most pairs seems to be already trending at the moment. There were just a couple that seems to be worth watching at the moment.

I may have to wait two months for the next setup…
Hopefully not, but so be it.

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411

I’m watching 60 pairs.

That’s a lot. But, I’m watching for consolidation in the form of convergence of the MAs.

I’m also looking for reversals in the form of a trend losing momentum.

However, my entries are based on candles and MA crossovers.

Based on backtesting, there could be three false signals before actually catching the trend.

I’m gonna try to focus on swing trades because S/R trades often have a shorter life than swing trades.

I’ve often chosen bounces trades that have a R:R of 1:8 or so. But swings that could last two months might yield a 1:30. Of course, not always.

But I’d rather be wrong 3 times and catch a 1:30 r/r than a 1:8.

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