Trading journal

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396

This morning, I placed just two trades. One if them was AUD/USD.

It’s finally breaking out past a TL I drew. It danced around it for two days. The candle closed outside of it, so I opened a long position.

Another position’s buy limit order got triggered, finally.

Other than that, no more trading today.

I have plenty liquidity, but I also have enough positions opem. I want to open more, but I kinda prefer to just hold on right now.

Tomorrow’s another day.

I’ve been meaning to study some charts for the past few weeks.

I’m finally getting to it. As I analyze a single swing-consolidation-swing period, I see so many of my ideas fall apart.

It’s both sad and liberating.

My brain is seriously stuck on the idea of more trading=more money.

It’s a real mess. I think I need more study before I keep chasing bounces and sideways trends.

I have a book about trading ranges. I really like that book.

I’m jumping the gun, but I’m challenging my ideas about ranges. Trading consolidation can be profitable, but not all ranges are profitable. And not all sideways markets.

A sideways market could be a terribly choppy range. Meanwhile, here I go jumping in trying to catch money boucing around in a blender. Sure, I may catch some coins, but in the end my hand got shredded.

Was it really worth it? Is the problem me or the blender?? Right now, I don’t know. I need to think about it more.

Part of me wonders if some trading books are strictly about selling a dream.

Trading ranges and channels can be profitable. The books show you the complete picture. The best examples.

When they make it look easy, you think that technique is better than your current one.

But what the books don’t tell you is the patience that comes along with that strategy.

You have to wait for those types of ideal set ups. In the book you see a channel. So you jump in just like in the book. Well, the book’s technique mixed with your own fear and greed, and Bam!! Stopped out. Again and again.

I heard a speaker talk about the idea of “side B”. Nobody talks about side B. They sell you “side A” with the pictures, clean entry and clear exits.

They don’t tell you that “side B” is drawing TLs and creating a channel out of a trend that’s not a channel; price pulling back to the MA90 and market makers pushing the price lower beyond the support then going on a bull run.

But you lost twice: the support bounce, and the short trade because you thought price was breaking support.

Part of me wants to skip the small trades and just focus on the big swings.

Another part of me is scared to do that because I believe that more trading=more money.

But that’s not true. More trading=more opportunities.

But those opportunities mean profit or loss.

You could suffer 20 losses, and that one win convinces you that your strategy works.

Instead that profit should be a sign that something is wrong. You should realise that you’re willing to forget about that entire losing streak just because of a single win. That’s a problem.

That’s not a winning strategy. Just do the math. Your account balance is lower this month. That one win means nothing. Sure, use it as motivatiom to keep going. But something has to change.

Sorry guys. This is a bit of a rant. It’s not directed to anyone. I’m just talking to myself, actually.

I looked at a single swing/consolidation period and I think about where I would have lost and what I should have done…

I’m gonna keep studying…

3 Likes
397

Sometimes, you just need a break. Yesterday, I was studying charts, backtesting and analyzing.

I was feeling great. And then I started feeling lost.

I wasn’t sure if it was me or my strategy that was confused.

I started feeling frustrated and lost. I continued a bit longer and just closed my laptop. I had enough.

Today, I’m looking at my charts and I’m seeing opportunities that I missed because I didn’t follow up properly.

Duly noted. I’ll follow my spreadsheet notes more. But it inspired me to keep going. One opportunity I missed matched my strategy EXACTLY! Just 2 days ago on the D1!

Sure, I missed it, but that means my strategy works. I just have to wait. They’re out there!! Just wait, wait, wait…

1 Like
398

I have been sensing some kind of paradox in your situation for some time now. I really hate writing anything that can be construed as negative but I will say this much:

You seem to be working in the realms of longer term charts like daily and weekly and yet there is constantly a sense of frustration that things don’t happen fast enough for you. You seem to be more distraught over a lack of trades than you are over any losses that occur.

I just wonder are you really trading the right timeframes to suit your character? I know a lot of people claim that dailies are more reliable and one stands a better chance of success with long term charts. But there are those of us that are more than content and successful on the shorter end,too.

Both styles have there pros and cons and a lot of it relates to our character. As the saying goes, we are all wired differently, and that means we need to be sure that our trading style is really in synch with our personality and characteristics.

I just wonder is there a conflict here in your trading method? I really hope two things:

  1. That you do not find this offensive

  2. That you are not one of these Bots that have been brought to notice recently :slight_smile:

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399

Haha.

No, and no.

Yes. Fair observation. I am frustrated. But the frustration comes from my impatience, mostly. There actually is a part of me that thinks more trades = more money.

I’m slowly battling that part of me.

I don’t obssess over the losses. I can’t let my losses dictate how I feel. However, they do provide clues to how I can improve.

I’m trying to teach myself that waiting can be more useful than trading.

However, while waiting for those specific trades, there are S/R trades. Yet even those require patience.

Not carpet-bomb trading strategy, either. But precision.

1 Like
400

This morning, I reviewed my W1 charts. For a moment, I told myself to hurry up because it was taking so long. But I stopped myself and said “hey, take your time, relax. Take whatever time you need and think about what you’re seeing in the charts.”

That actually made me feel better. Also because right now, I do forex for 30 minutes, then rest for 10. This helps me to keep a pace and keep going. As opposed to 1 hour of work and 15 minutes of rest, which will burn me out.

As I took my time, I could see the error is trades I was planning on taking. This is a nice feeling.

401

This is certainly a factor in my frustration, I must admit. But I think most of my frustration comes with battling my inner demons and telling the difference between an entry signal and a set of candles that I WANT to be an entry.

But you know what? After studying charts, I realise that just because I get stopped out, that doesn’t mean my strategy is wrong.

There are times that a pair will hit resistance and continue bullish, and then 3 days later retest resistance and turn bearish.

So, being wrong once doesn’t mean, give up on that pair for the rest of the week.

Because if you don’t pay attention you’ll miss out on the move you were expecting.

But you could lose 3x in a row with that pair. Just be patient and keep watching closely.

My problem was watching so many pairs that I couldn’t see those kinds of details. I miss a move, on to the next pair.

This is why it’s good to watch fewer pairs.
My thought process was (and kinda still is) more pairs=more opportunities to trade.

That COULD be the case, but it takes a lot of time to go through that many pairs. You’d have to be sure not to burn yourself out before getting to proper setups.

Also, you’d have to have a system keeping track of that many pairs. I use an excel spreadsheet.

I’m trading less pairs and I’m getting to know my spreadsheet system. Following up on my own notes is important. I’m using notes and a color-coding system to remind me which trades are most important to keep an eye on.

Building the habit is difficult. There are times I go thru my spreadsheet and I forget some elements, only to remember later what I forgot to do.

It’s a process.

I want to be a better trader in some aspect by the of this month. I don’t think I’m doing a good job. I can do better.

I have just a few setups I’m watching. I think I need to keep studying charts. That’s pretty helpful.

Btw, I hope @dxbtrader comes back. I liked his thread.

402

I’m pretty much done with my trading. Later today I’ll be studying charts.

I opened my trades, and set my orders. Just a few straddles, just in case. Not many because I’d like to see how price reverses before I reverse my position.

My total risk exposure (with pending limit orders) is 3.2%

My max is 4.6%, so I’m way under that.

I’m expecting JPY to go up. We’ll see what happens.

It’s kinda dancing around resistance right now but just starting to show a sprinkle of bearishness.

I finished my work in 4 hours, including breaks. Not bad.

There are some charts that perhaps I should look at, but those charts I noted yesterday as having no setups or I already missed it.

Besides, I’d rather not take any more trades for now.

Yesterday, I placed a 0.75% risk trade. And I lost. I didn’t like losing that much, to be honest. I’m going back to sticking with my 0.43% risk. For now, that’s my max.

I’m very comfortable with that.

403

I’m taking time today to study charts and look at patterns.

Also, I’m also rethinking how to go about my strategy.

Multiple strategies, I guess. I’m still looking to trade swings and S/R bounces.

But, the trades often develop in different ways. They don’t all look the same until the opportunity is long gone, and the trend is complete.

I’m starting to work on a “if I see scenario A, use these signals for entry” type of plan.

I think this could help me be more concrete with my thoughts.

404

It actually feels good to write these things down on paper.

It kinda takes the thinking out of the equation, a bit.

JPY has been toying with me a bit this week. I’m thinking that it’s gonna go up and some of the crosses are gonna go down. CNH/JPY apprears to be turning bearish.

I don’t know if a few of the other JPY crosses will follow. I was feeling discouraged this morning.

I finished my trading and went back to sleep for a little while. Later this morning I went out for a bit and it helped me clear my mind.

My friend coincidently told me about a guy who struggled and eventuallt defied the odds and became successful.

It was encouraging.

The main ideas are “don’t quit” and “make small improvements”.

405

This morning, I finished my trading in 3 hours. Not bad.

I didn’t look for any new trades. I have enough for now.

I’m waiting for some better signals before I open any more positions, or add to anything else.

I’ve been studying swing trades for the past week or so. So much to study in those swings.

I started looking for a nice channel to study, and observe the bounces, but I didn’t find any clean examples right away.

That got me thinking about the possibility of putting S/R trades on paise for a while.

I’m not so sure about it yet. But trading bounces, the R:R is less,
compared to swings. I mean, the reward is lower compared to swings.

But there are waaaay more bounce trades than swings, that means way more opportunities to lose and less reward if you’re right.

With swings, however, the rewards are higher.

406

This week, I was feeling more reluctant to do my trading.

I’m not sure if it’s the losses, or burnout.

I think maybe I need a break for a day. I don’t know…

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407

A reply in support from a friend. Take that break - one day or more. The market will still be there when you return. During the break, try to think of any activity in your life that you have neglected in your pursuit of Forex, and try to rebuild your work plan to include any thing you have neglected that you still care about. It’s called life normalisation, and is good for all of us from time to time. I look forward to seeing you back, refreshed.
:+1:

1 Like
408

I’m probably still talking rubbish to you here but I can’t help thinking that you are approaching your trading like someone who wants to learn to juggle - but instead of starting off with one ball, getting the movements working, then adding another ball, then another, then another, you are trying to keep 28 balls in the air from day one while you are still learning. i.e. the ultimate in FOMO?

Trading should be a progressive activity, but I am not really seeing the development here. It is certainly not for me to suggest anything to you, but you may like to thin out the field a bit until you have a winning strategy that works in some of the battles before taking on the whole war.

Trading is not actually that difficult at all and it need not be time-consuming either. Afterall, the price can only go either up or down. So you just need a process that a) defines the most probable next direction and b) how far it is likely to go (has it got legs). After that, just stick with the A1 trade set-ups (patience and discipline) and aim for a modest slice of the anticipated move (no greed!).

Something else to ponder:

All this effort is only worthwhile if you eventually reach the stage where you can trade size big enough to earn decent money consistently (what one defines as “decent” money is subjective, of course, but is surely more than just a fistful of dollars per month?). But will you ever be able to increase your position size sufficient to achieve that unless you have developed a strong confidence in your approach that has a track record? One really needs to make that “confidence level” a number one target. Without that, there is no really worthwhile end result, just years of struggling. And achieving that confidence level is not going to happen without cast iron discipline and a systematic, methodical approach to developing one’s trading strategy.

2 Likes
409

I’m doing my trading now.

I checked all my W1 charts and took notes of which trades to place.

Just a few days ago I told myself what type of trades I should be focusing on and how to trade them.

I was about to start placing orders, until I realised I completely forgot about my plan and was about to just keep trading as I usually do.

Changing habits is tough. Before I actually start placing some orders and giving myself the green light to open positions once the market opens, I’m taking a few minutes to read over my plan.

3 Likes
410

This morning, no new trades.

I checked up on my open positions, and that’s it.

I took time creating lists of pairs to watch. The list is long but I’m only looking for consolidation/reversals.

Most pairs seems to be already trending at the moment. There were just a couple that seems to be worth watching at the moment.

I may have to wait two months for the next setup…
Hopefully not, but so be it.

3 Likes
411

I’m watching 60 pairs.

That’s a lot. But, I’m watching for consolidation in the form of convergence of the MAs.

I’m also looking for reversals in the form of a trend losing momentum.

However, my entries are based on candles and MA crossovers.

Based on backtesting, there could be three false signals before actually catching the trend.

I’m gonna try to focus on swing trades because S/R trades often have a shorter life than swing trades.

I’ve often chosen bounces trades that have a R:R of 1:8 or so. But swings that could last two months might yield a 1:30. Of course, not always.

But I’d rather be wrong 3 times and catch a 1:30 r/r than a 1:8.

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412

OH, I long for the long game. As a matter of interest, what are you using for backtesting your plans at the moment?

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413

Just my eyes… haha

I just stared at D1 charts. The same chart for like 45 minutes. I also work kinda slow.

But I would look at a swing on EUR/USD on D1 and try to see what was going on.

And I would look at different pairs. I was labeling and taking notes.

And I finally just started taking a tally of different signals that I would see in different swings.

So, it’s all price action, MAs, and trend lines.

No software or anything like that. I’m not that sophisticated. Haha

But that wasn’t the hardest part. The hardest part is changing the habits that you know are bad for you, but don’t eant to give up.

I’ve been focused on S/R bounce trades for a while. And it hasn’t been going well for me. I wanted to slow down, but it’s taken me all month to finally resist the urge to take those kinds of trades.

Some of them are worth it, but I was taking too many of them.

I placed just ONE trade today. GBP/MXN.

It was a signal that perfectly matches my strategy. If I get stopped out, it won’t bother me because I’ll know that I followed my rules.

I can’t believe it. Just one trade.

I wanted to trade long on GBP/USD today, but I resisted the urge.

Today is the first day in maybe a year that I didn’t place not one bounce trade nor even a limit order.

It feels pretty good. I can’t believe it took me a month to resist that urge.

414

I feel your pain - or I did for a long time last year. Whilst I was stuck on my current trading plan since mid year, I am going to do some backtesting in ForexTester5 - a post under Trading Systems. Early days but I have committed to do this in sections over 12 weeks. I now know how I wish to approach this so look forward to saving my eyes, and yours too if it works out so.

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415

Hahaha I forgot there were even programs for that.

To be honest, I wanted to find some help. I tried watching a tutorial video “25 price action strategies” or something like that.

I watched it for less than a minute. I saw the first strategy was candle formation. I’ve already read books and Pipsology about that stuff.

I decided I didn’t want any help. I just wanted to do it myself. I didn’t want anyone else’s interpretation of the charts.

Everything I needed was in the charts. All my answers.

I watched the entry, the bounces, and the exits.

Even some false signals. And your only hope is SL management, in that scenario. Still, there are losses you can’t prevent. And there are times when you only profit from 75% of the swing. That moment when you could exit, but the trend could just retrace and keep going. There’s no way to be sure.

Retracing or ending? That’s where you’re gonna lose some profit. Forget about “nailing tops and bottoms”.