Trading journal

[dushimes]

@Johnscott31

all motivation can dry up and the last thing you want is to come face to face with your failings.

Thanks for reading!

And I had a moment like that this morning where motivation was starting to dry up. I was looking at all my losses for this month so far.

About 25, I think. But all with risk management, so the losses aren’t overwhelming. It’s just the number of losses that bother me. Because, añl I really had to do was just not take those trades. Probably, at least half them I could have skipped. Sometimes, you just gotta take a chance at being wrong in order to play the game.

But a lot of trades I could have done without.

So, I’m gonna try to do a better job with that.

Thanks again for reading!

[dushimes]

For the past two weeks my profits have floated around 15%. It fluctuates…
I have been getting chewed up by EUR/USD because it’s dancing around a TL. I lost about 4% in chasing that breakout.

Basically, things are ok, but hoped for better.

I had a wave of bad feelings. I had that feeling of “oh god. This isn’t working. Maybe I should quit…”

I don’t know how many of you guys have had that feeling before.

I got that feeling, and I decided to just not do any trading today. It’s Friday, and not too much is gonna happen today.

Some markets are are kinda on pause, and they’re dancing around trendlines as they’re not sure what they’re gonna do. And it’s hard to figure out what I should do, but I don’t wanna miss out either. An early entry is everything for me. But this time, it came at its own price.

In the moment, I felt like quitting. I felt doubt. But I know that this is part of the game. I have a profitable strategy; I just have to fine tune it.

Quitting is not an option. Each day, week, month…small adjustments.

If there are times I just have to stay out of the market, so be it. I took some losses. Ok. Fine. This is part of the process.

If any of you guys are in a similar situation, I say don’t quit. This is part of the process. Take a break if you must. Look at your mistakes, see what you’re doing wrong, and adjust your trading plan. Keep going. Keep going. Keep going.

A snake can only shed its skin against sharp rocks.

[MattyMoney]

@dushimes

In the moment, I felt like quitting. I felt doubt. But I know that this is part of the game. I have a profitable strategy; I just have to fine tune it.

Great attitude.

I know the frustration. More than once I’ve gone as far as withdrawing all my funds, only to deposit them again the next day. It is a slow process but with determination you will get things figured out. Most traders quit long before they can get to that point.

I also know the temptation of opening, or “sniping” trades as I go down the list. But over time you learn that this only leads to the majority either going against you, or as John said too much correlation, leading to positions hedging each other and your account going nowhere, if you’re lucky.

What I do now is mark potential trades as I go down the list, then go through them again and pick out the best 2 or 3 and take them. Save some of that margin so that you can add to the winners through the week.

Next week will be a better week.

[dushimes]

@MattyMoney

What I do now is mark potential trades as I go down the list,

Yup. This is what I do now. I changed up my morning routine to include this.

@MattyMoney

then go through them again and pick out the best 2 or 3 and take them

This is a good idea. That’s something I should consider: focus on only proper set ups—not FOMO or “maybe” trades. “Well, maybe I could win if it goes this way, even though it’s only kinda part of my trading plan”.

I can’t take those kinds of trades anymore. It’s turning into either an impulsive or addictive trade.

It’s kinda frightening that my trading quantity could be cut in half. It shouldn’t be scary, but it is. That’s the FOMO voice. It’s not logic. I understand that. Making fewer, yet wiser, choices is a sign of development.

I should embrace this.

Thanks @MattyMoney

[Johnscott31]

@dushimes

On a second reading of this post something interesting hit me - your NEED to have money working for you.

When I initially responded I said there is enough leverage in FX that only one or two positions are needed.

But that response is likely to fall on deaf ears if you have this belief that money should not stand idle.

We always end up trading our underlying belief system - so maybe it’s changing your belief system around that issue that needs to be worked on.

You can say to yourself till you are blue in the face you are only going to take the best set ups, but if your beliefs are tempting you to be in the market MORE not LESS that will override your conscious decision to be selective.

The best traders and investors love sitting in cash, or being on the sidelines.

While I’m far from great, I too now appreciate this position.

Also remember this, by being in cash you are actually performing better than nearly every trader in the market!

[dushimes]

@Johnscott31

if your beliefs are tempting you to be in the market MORE not LESS that will override your conscious decision to be selective

I’d have to be selective based on how clean the set ups look. If they look a bit choppy, I gotta choose the set up that seems least likely to go wrong. Of course anything can happen, though.

@Johnscott31

The best traders and investors love sitting in cash, or being on the sidelines.

ONLY when things look uncertain. I imagine they enjoy being on the sidelines waiting for ideal conditions. They’re not anxious while waiting. Is that what you mean?

@Johnscott31

by being in cash you are actually performing better than nearly every trader in the market!

I’m looking at this the same way. Does it mean by staying out of questionable trades, you’re doing better than the guys trying to jump in and keep losing money?

To be honest, this is something I’ve gotten only slightly better at: staying out. But, I need to improve more.

When the conditions are far from ideal, it’s like trying to take money out of a blender. Your hand will get shredded trying to reap profits. That’s how I felt with the EUR/USD trade this week. So, I stopped and decided to sit it out for a little while.

[dushimes]

What’s funny is that I could have just randomly closed all my positions when I got to a 30% profit.

It would have been completely unstrategic but I would have had that profit. I don’t know if it’s smart or not.

My question is: if you’re making profits, does it matter if it’s following your strategy or not?

[dushimes]

You know, the cool thing about trading so many pairs is that if you’re on the right side, you’re making money.

And when the market starts to shift or slow down, you notice the whole market’s movement because you’re watching so many pairs.

You pay attention differently when there’s profits involved.

So, if I were to do it that way again, and I pay attention to my gut (trend has too much momentum to continue) when the market starts to slow down or several pairs are approaching S/R at the same time, it would be a good time to close everything and keep my profits.

Just a thought…

But this is my first time seeing multiple pairs hit S/R lines at the same time. Actually, not even hit, but dance around and hop back and forth on S/R lines.

I can’t get upset, though. I’ll jump back in once the market starts to move again.

Maybe I just need to enter some wide SLs for now. Eventually, it’s gonna move. So, if I see a proper set up, I’ll focus on just a few pairs, then wait for the market to make up its mind, then maybe jump back in if there are still some proper entries.

[dushimes]

I went to bed on time, and I tried to wake early this morning…my body had serious trouble. I went back to sleep. I slept for 10 hours.

My routine is to wake up early. If I go to sleep early enough, I need less sleep.

I get about 6 hours of sleep. I love sleep. I really love sleep. But there are not enough hours in the day, so I sacrifice sleep.

I’m awake enough to get thru my morning trading. After 11am, some days I feel like a zombie. There have been days where I fell asleep standing up. Fortunately, I have a job that requires little thinking.

But this morning, I slept late. I needed it. I woke up with little time for trading. So, I didn’t do much. Just looked at a couple charts. Pretty much nothing.

Part of me felt guilty for sleeping, but I really needed it. I might do some trading this evening, but that’s unlikely. I’ll try to go to bed early, and get started in the morning.

Sometimes, I have to tell myself “just relax. Take it easy. Just be patient.”

The thing is that when you do sports or workout, the harder you push, the more results you get. Getting angry in the middle of a lift can help you. Those emotions can help you push your physical limits.

I always enjoyed physical activity. Investing and trading is different. In lifting weights, you make the weights do what you want them to do.

You can’t beat the market. You have to flow with it. Trying to beat the market will drain your account. The market doesn’t care what you think.
The market doesn’t care what trendlines you’ve drawn.

The market may respect them, or it may not. The only thing you can do is wait and jump on when it starts to move. Maybe set your straddle orders.

And sitting on the sidelines too long could either be fear or patience. It’s fear if you realise after that it was a great set up.

I defintely need more patience and a more discriminating eye, but at some point I gotta jump in with managed risk. That’s the game.

[dushimes]

This morning, I got thru just almost half my morning routine.

I first started randomly going thru charts, but I caught myself and started my proper routine. I got busy with some non-forex stuff, and came back later to check up on my open positions.

The market is pretty much at a stand still for the moment.

I’ve been wondering about my profit-taking skills. If I had several trades in the green, how did I lose money?

I have some positions I wouldn’t want to close right now. But I had a nice EUR/CAD break out trade, and I could have closed it, but it reversed and turned into a fakeout.

Perhaps that’s unavaoidable. There are several instances where I thought I was doing the right thing by being patient. But whats the point of being disciplined if you’re not making profits?

I think my entries are ok, but closing in my next problem to tackle. Sometimes, my exit strategies have to be flexible, I suppose.

If the D1 candles seem to be losing momentum, or if price has been heading towards a strong TL, maybe just close at the TL. Collect the profits after 3 days, rather than giving the trend 3 weeks to work itself out, only to watch the profits go from 45% down to 6%.

I think I’ll try to keep this in mind: it’s ok to alter the exit plan if price action is doing something unexpected.

[dushimes]

Alg626’s thread made me realize that I’ve missed several opportunities. I could have been trading these consolidations, but I have been so focused on trends and channels, I didn’t even THINK about range trading.

I completely forgot. One of my rules is to look for any three bounces, which makes a range. The past two weeks were full of consolidation periods.

This is something I should keep in mind. Different tools for different scenarios; not just one tool or no tool.

[dushimes]

I think I have to keep an open mind to what could happen, and not be so reluctant to take profits if my original plan changes because the market is doing something unexpected.

[dushimes]

(ignore the horizontal red line)

Here’s a trade I have right now with the AUD/CHF. I’m long and entered at the yellow arrow. I’m in the green for now.

Here’s what could happen:
It could bounce the MA20 (red line) and go bearish
Or go bullish until the next resistance, possibly until the blue resistance at the top

So, do I close now and keep what profits I have? Or I let it ride and risk losing my profits?

One solution is using two accounts. One account to close now (short-term) and another account for long-term and see what happens.

This drives me nuts because whenever money is on the table, I don’t want to lose it.
My strategy calls for opening two positions for such trades: one in each account. If I’m getting a good entry, I could risk less than 1% per account.

To be honest, I haven’t been doing that. If I had, I wouldn’t be writing this right now.

For the past two weeks I’ve been meaning to write a new check list. But I haven’t done it. The weekend if probably the best time. I’m gonna try to work on it today…

[MattyMoney]

Nice entry. This pair has clearly been in a down trend for a while now, so this would be considered a counter-trend trade.

If you think there might be more upside and if your broker allows you to close partial positions (which they should) then that might be your best option, lock in half or so and let the rest ride.

[OskarNilsson]

It is a great way to help each other.

[dushimes]

@MattyMoney

This pair has clearly been in a down trend for a while now, so this would be considered a counter-trend trade.

Absolutely. The major trend is bearish. But until what point will it resume? That’s a tough question, isn’t it?

One can only guess.

@MattyMoney

close partial positions

I have IG, and they don’t allow partial closings. Ally does, however. Great features, but IG has better charts.

Another problem could be, what if the counter trend retraces, but continues up? I would be losing out.

When do you hold? When do you close?

[dushimes]

@MattyMoney

This pair has clearly been in a down trend for a while now, so this would be considered a counter-trend trade.

Oh man. I think I just realised something. I think I’m getting greedy.

I’m trying to maximize my profits on something unpredictable. This could be faulty thinking.

There are ways to maximize profits, but sometimes you just gotta be happy that you got something at all. Especially when going against the trend.
I could close at a decent profit, and then just wait for an ideal entry, or just go elsewhere in the meantime.

[MattyMoney]

@dushimes

I could close at a decent profit, and then just wait for an ideal entry, or just go elsewhere in the meantime.

Nothing wrong with closing in profits. After all, isn’t that what you’re ultimately trying to accomplish?

I had several trades open Friday morning and as you probably know price surged on several pairs (mostly US due to NFP). My first thought was to ignore it and let it ride, but I know that when there’s price surge like that, price will inevitably pull back. Since it was Friday and my account was up about 3.5% decided to close everything.

It was not part of my trading plan but I don’t regret it one bit.

Monday after the NY session resumes I will place orders at the high/lows of these daily candles (if it hasn’t already reached them) and wait to see if price continues in the same direction.

[dushimes]

@MattyMoney

It was not part of my trading plan but I don’t regret it one bit.

That’s the part that was hard for me to learn. Your trading plan must have some flexibility.

I had one trade USD/DKK, it went up for about a week or so. But I wanted to hold it for a year so it could hit the big TL.

After one week I had a very nice profit. My strategy was to hold. But then it lost momentum. And went bearish. My profits were going down. I watched my profits dwindle to just a few dollars.

I realised that my entries must be disciplined and very well structured. But my exits must be flexible.

Price could bounce the nearest MA, lose momentum, or hit some old resistance from 2012. If I have 40% profit, why should my principles stop my from closing and collecting my profits?

The top principle is to gain profits. The market is always right, not my trading strategy.

@MattyMoney

I will place orders at the high/lows of these daily candles

I’ll be placing some straddle orders, as well!

[dushimes]

I counted errors of the losing trades I’ve logged. Here’s the count:

You can see my biggest problems are SL placement and not placing OCOs. Actually, it’s not necessarily OCOs, but independent straddle orders. I’ve gotten chewed up last month with AUD/USD and EUR/USD dancing around support zones.

Another thing I learned is to be scientific about my entries, and artistic about my exits. If that makes any sense.
Entries must follow my strategies, but exits have to be flexible.

I’ve been rather all over the place. I have one account for long-term trades and one for short-term trades. My goal is to open a position on the same pair in both accounts. That way, when things get shaky, I can close the short-term position, and let the other one ride.

Not for every pair, though! Take a look at this D1 for EUR/CAD:

Now, look at the W1:

I traded this and watched my profits dwindle to very little. I’ll be watching for things like this more often.

I think this may be more important for me considering the nature of its movement.
Check out all the long candle wicks on this M1:

This means that there won’t be many smooth swings lasting weeks. I have to pay attention to how the pair moves and trade it accordingly.