@Mondeoman You always have lots of information to share. I hope you write a memoir book someday!!
Thank you for always sharing! It’s nice to hear how people came to their investment styles.
Thanks for your support. If I ever did write a memoir book, it would be after accumulation of 100 BTC (so there is a long way to go on that score) and it would be ghost. Like W G Hill and his Perpetual Traveller reports. 
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Could you tell us what your pseudo name would be?
Hi @Mondeoman,
I certainly wouldn’t disagree with holding BTC as part of an investment portfolio. And, as you say, in some ways it could even be less vulnerable to manipulation since it is not an official currency on a major scale.
However, I do trust nowadays that central banks tend to be more transparent and respectful towards their populations than in the past. I remember the days when the BoE would change their base rate by a whole one percent without any prior warning…
But my point here was concerned with trading BTCUSD on leverage on a short term exposure lasting from a few hours to several days rather than a long term portfolio exposure. It is not an issue of potential disaster events, rather simply a feeling that BTC can potentially lurch dramatically in either direction since it is entirely at the mercy of greed, fear and sentiment rather than any solid fundamentals underlying it.
There is probably much more to talk about on this point of what makes any instrument suitable for speculative trading, but I am conscious that we are visitors here on @dushimes journal thread and this is off-topic! 
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No not at all. No worries!! It’s good to discuss this stuff. We all have different opinions, and we can only learn by sharing.
I’m always interested to hear what more experienced traders think (even if I disagree).
But, I think it’s MORE vulnerable to manipulation. Just because of the market cap, compared to the market cap in forex.
Do you think @SovoS that it’s not suitable for trading? Me, personally, I have some BTC but it’s really an insignificant amout. I wouldn’t even care if it imploded or went to the moon. There are some that have bet the farm on BTC.
If someone wants to trade an instrument with that kind of volatility, more power to them. I have nothing against it.
I wouldn’t say that in any absolute manner, there are so many different ways that people trade and on different time horizons, It just suits my own way of trading.
As I mentioned at the time, I always focus on just one instrument at any one time, and my choice of instrument depends on what expectations I have for its near term development. But somehow I can never get a grip on what I anticipate developing with BTC. It could do anything at any time. Which means I feel I am trading randomness whenever I take a position with BTCUSD and I have no feeling of any edge. And that scenario does not represent trading in my world!
But, like I said, this is just my own personal take and comfort zone. We all have our own profiles, criteria and rules - at least I think we should have!
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I didn’t do much trading today. But, I had to think about my trading. So, I went outside to think and walk. I’m glad it was early and no one was out yet.
I was just walking around in the street talking to myself. Haha
But, I had some clarity. So, that’s good.
I listened to
today. She’s good!! Very big on habits, she is. Thanks!!
I made a more realistic to-do list today and yesterday. I actually followed everything. I still wished I was more productive somehow, but I still studied and read for the designated time. Not too bad.
I’m reading about taxes for traders. I have a few books to read, and I want to finish them sooner than later.
I have an accountant but I’d still like to educate myself. I don’t want to rely 100% on just one person’s information.
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Only when I have 100 BTC
Maybe I ought to change my mind!
Since BTC was in my mind after these discussions, I took a look at it this morning and it seemed like a very strong sell - so I sold it and, well, it went straight down to that support zone! Nice start to the week and thanks to this discussion!
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Just out of curiosity, what was your risk % on that? Do you risk the same amount as other instruments, or does it vary?
Always 1%? More? Less?
Very nice trade, by the way!!
I don’t really know how to respond to this, if I’m honest. 
I have been doing this for so many years that I pick my position size almost intuitively without any reference to risk percentage. This does not mean that I trade recklessly, it is simply a somewhat automated process like pressing the clutch when changing gear in the car…
I have never placed any great importance on percentages because account size is an arbitrary factor. No two traders have the same account equity set up so using percentages for comparative purposes concerning risk exposure or profit targets is rather meaningless.
For example, one trader may have only $1000 in his account because that is all he wants to risk in his trading and if it goes then he is finished. Another trader may also have only $1000 because that is sufficient to cover his margins and he has already withdrawn his original deposit many times over and if his balance hapoens to get too low then he simply tops it up again and moves on. For the former trader, risk percentage is a critical factor in ensuring survival and a chance to build his account. But for the latter trader, he may risk say 50-60% of his current balance without any concern because his total “trading funds” are not all in his equity account.
In this particular case, my BTC trade was on a separate account that I keep for my “non-systematic” occasional trades in order not to distort my journalling results, etc - and I guess the risk size was quite large in terms of just that account.
I guess I would say that I place far more importance of gauging the probability risk rather than the exposure risk (which is just according to that intuitive “feel” from experience).
I certainly don’t wish to play down the importance of exposure awareness. Risk and money management are the two most important aspects of a trade in my opinion and it is critical that newcomers pay a lot of attention to these two processes. Overtrading comes a close third behind these two. In trading, I firmly believe that less is indeed more.
If it is of any interest, this is how I was looking at the BTCUSD chart. This is a daily chart and shows the last major uptrend from July to August this year. After we broke that line the market continued to try and maintain an upward trend based on nothing more than maybe 90% bullish sentiment (because there are no fundamentals! to base a view on!.)
However, we broke that attempt with the big drop on 7.9. We have since then seen a period of weak buying that has not managed to instil any great follow-through on the upside, forming that yellow resistance in the process.
We are now witnessing a downside move that is creating a possibility of a more critical collapse if the hugely widespread bullish sentiment is cracked. But that is a big “if” and weakness has failed many times before to be anything other than temporary.
So I am short term wary of buying anything here and am watching those near term support levels for the next sign of a move…
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I do the same thing, but some would say that if you’re looking at the trade and scaling it down based on probability, then you shouldn’t take that trade at all.
But you gotta play in order to win. And to avoid FOMO, you place a small position that you don’t mind losing under those circumstances.
I’ve done that. I’m not sure if it’s a good strategy at my level. With practice I’ll be able to tell the difference between “no way”, “mmm maybe”, and “hell yeah” set ups.
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I would tend to agree with that. There is a difference between assessing probability and just being so unsure of a trade that one takes a smaller position. Every trade is a probability trade, that is the nature of our business. One needs to feel there is an edge in favour of one direction or another and the only real question is what to use to determine whether the edge is there or not. But beyond that, if the edge is there you take it, if it is not there you leave it and look for something else.
But I also think that assessing a trade should also include an analysis of possible duration. Exit strategy is perhaps the most important factor affecting our net results (alongside risk/money management issues) Positioning a TL too close or too far can both diminish overall earnings considerably. And, again, if the most logical TL is too near then leave it and look for something else.
This is a mindset that I really cannot agree with. The only way to avoid FOMO is to have a clean, clear and crisp process of identifying a trade entry. I trade on a very discretionary basis but I approach it on two levels: the first level is technical and is very precise in defining a new trade. As soon as that occurs I overlay that with a discretionary consideration of other factors such as upcoming calendar events, Central Bank meetings, the longer term picture, etc.
For example, I might be get a USD-based trade signal today but will then consider it in the light of the FOMC meeting tomorrow - which may or may not override the signal. But I wouldn’t resolve it by just taking a smaller trade that “I don’t mind losing” - I always mind losing! I just accept it as a necessary overhead in the business of trading probabilities.
I can’t help thinking that if one accepts small losses as OK just to be in the market then that must start to blunt one’s perception of good trades and good profits. I would prefer to think of a trade as “would I bet someone else’s money on this one?” And if the answer is no then why risk your own money when you can leave it alone and move on to the next one?.
But this is just the way I think and these are just issues for reflection, nothing more. The only right and wrong ways are those that are right and wrong for us personally - and that will always be person-specific!
I think this is again an issue of having a clear-cut set of criteria defining your entry points. If they are fulfilled then you are ready to go, if they are not then you reject or wait until they are. You risk exposure is then defined by the point that presents your logical stop-loss level - not by whether you are unsure of the trade or how much you don’t mind losing on it.
I don’t mean to sound too "teacher"ish about all this. These are just my thoughts and practices. But I do think that traders need to have the utmost clarity and understanding of what they are doing, when they are going to do it, and, even more importantly, when they are going to step back.
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I’m learning to walk away from trades more and more. But, there are some that look like a good opportunity, but there’s some doubt. For those, I’ll reduce my position size.
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This morning, I scanned my charts as usual. For my strategy, all the moves are already in motion, so I just have to wait.
I set a few orders just in case prices retest a certain level, but I doubt it.
I was being mindful of opening trades that aren’t good trades.
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Congratulations on your discipline!
It certainly isn’t easy! I had a similar situation tonight. I had already taken an early short on SP500 for a quick 100 pips and was happy with that result at the time - but that soon started to look pretty silly when the price then dropped another 200 pips after I had closed out!!! It is a teasing situation with the Chinese Evergrande concerns in the background. I was thinking, are we possibly at the start of a major sell-off - and I would be left at the bus-stop after the bus had left? Should I just follow the usual FOMO scenario and simply shut my eyes and jump back in? …
But it would not have been a good entry set-up at that point and the first sensible stops would have been way above the current levels - so I left it alone and took the dog for a walk instead - now the price is back up above where I had first sold it today before hitting my TP, and I would have re-entered at pretty much the low of the day (so far)!.
So sometimes sitting it out is indeed the best thing - but it can also be one of the most frustrating decisions for enthusiastic traders!! 
Good move! Do something else! Haha
I felt like that today. Just because I WANT to trade doesn’t mean that I SHOULD.
If you’re accustomed to having 5 trades running, and now you have just 1, you start thinking about how everybody else out in the market is making money.
And it makes you feel like you should jump in. Then you look for something “good enough.” Then you find 4 of those. Your money’s working, now the anxiety is going away.
But those 4 trades were forced trades, and you lose each of them…
That’s the viscious cycle. All I have to do is just do nothing.
Why is that such a problem?
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This is really quite a fascinating example of how differently we traders are wired. Some of us are only happy when we have a finger(s) in the pie…and there are others on this site whose approach is to trade the opening 30 mins, take their profit for the day and they are done - and happy with that!
I, like you, like to have a trade open (I sold the SP500 again for another 50 pips) but I day trade because I only want to trade when I feel like it or see something I like. I hate keeping positions open for days and having them on my mind all the time.
So we really do need to know who we are and what makes us tick. And then build our strategy around that.
Another angle to this is position size. I am more than happy with 100 pips on any day with my normal position size but I need to ensure that my entry is close enough to a sensible stoploss area to avoid excessive pain when I am wrong. But it means one can spend less time in the market=less risk exposure= for the same profit as someone who is watching smaller positions for hours/days with constant risk of a sudden reversal - and for the same reward.
But we need to design and mould a personalised bespoke strategy around our character and personal quirks! Afterall, that should be easier to comply with too!
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Fully agree @sovoS
The strategy even mine are amended almost weekly, the basics stay the same because it works and because of how I trade. One needs to keep working on it to get it right, this does not mean adding indicators.
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