I’m studying retracements today. I have to be careful taking notes that could contradict eachother, so I’m comparing trends under different circumstances in different pairs.
It’s interesting but a little annoying. I say that because you could think you understand something, then find something that contradicts it. Then you’re kinda lost. You gotta figure out what’s going on. It’s like a puzzle.
As I study retracements, I’m noticing swings that I should study. It’s kinda turning into a rabbit hole, but it’s actually a good thing.
It’s good because these are questions I should answer. My demo account has dropped over 50% since I started demo again. Apparently, there are a lot of questions that need answering.
There’s a cricket in the house and it’s REALLY distracting! I’m trying to concentrate and it’s chirping constantly.
I should be trading right now, but I’ve spent my time studying charts instead. It wasn’t my intention, but I wanted to keep going.
At my current stage, studying is more important than trading. My trading won’t improve without studying. So, I don’t mind.
I’m seeing some trades that I missed. Most of them are pretty obvious. I guess I’m thinking ¨oh no, it couldn’t be that simple…this must be a fakeout…the market is trying to trick me…´´
And then, nope. It wasn’t a trick. The market really does tell on itself. I just get caught in disbelief so much…
After the trend starts going in the direction the signal indicated, I’m in disbelief that I didn’t take the signal.
First I’m in disbelief that the signal is valid, then I’m in disbelief that I didn’t take the very clear signal.
This may sound obvious, but I think I should try taking more clear signals, and avoid the not-so-clear signals.
Meaning, I should be willing to take losses on trades that ¨could be something¨, rather than trades that ¨I’m not sure what that is so I should jump in¨.
And the latter often happens at times when the conditions are less than ideal. I just think ¨hey, there’s a signal but based on conditions the price could go up, or it could down, so I have a 50/50 chance of profiting.¨
Instead it should be ¨hey, this is a signal, and the conditions seem favorable…I should jump in¨.
Hi @dushimes!
Am I suffering from a case of dejá vu here? 
And you said on July 8:
You spend a lot of time on your studies - now you have to just believe in its value! 
Studying charts now. Your perspective of a trade…or better…your analysis of a trade changes once you zoom out a bit.
You think one way, then zoom out a bit to see the bigger picture, and the logic of the trade can change completely.
Sometimes, I forget that. I have some charts in my diagram, and I decided to take another look at them from farther away. My understand of them has changed. Now, I think, ¨Oh! So, THAT’S why it reversed!¨
I’ve been taking losses still, and I’m wondering why. I think I’m still trading desperately. Not on purpose, but inherently. My strategy says to take every signal, but I think I also have to consider the surrounding conditions. My strategy specifies the conditions, but sometimes it’s hard to tell if those conditions are what I’m seeing or not.
I’ve mentioned waiting for such conditions before, but I think I slowly drift into a bad habit of taking trades that I shouldn’t. I’m not sure yet of how to tell the difference. I need to take another look at my trading history.
Maybe my problem is not waiting long enough…I’m not sure. I just know that I’m still losing more than I’m winning.
So, something has to change. I have a feeling that I’m repeating the same mistakes somehow…
So, I just analyzed the trade that made me frustrated. It’s really, really simple.
I traded it long and got stopped out. I saw a signal, took it, and got stopped out.
The candle that hit my stop, left me confused about the direction price was gonna go.
My strategy says to go long under those circumstances, and that I could be wrong 4x.
Well, I was wrong once and got scared/confused and decided the smart thing to do was to wait.
Guess what happened next? Price sky rocketed! Without me!
I would have been wrong just ONE time and profited very nicely. But I got confused and sat that one out.
The bottom line is that I didn’t follow my strategy because I didn’t understand the surrounding conditions. I now see that my strategy was 100% correct, and again, I failed to stick to it.
The truth is that I’ve taken so many losses that when I take a loss I become doubtful and start trying to figure out what else is going on in the chart.
When I try to figure out what else is going on in the chart, I start to believe that what I’m seeing isn’t really a signal–that I just made it up.
But my strategy says that I could be wrong 4x. That’s the max, but backtests determine that I’d usually only be wrong 2-3 times.
It’s both frustrating and encouraging at the same time. It’s encouraging because I have a profitable strategy. But frustrating because in order to follow it I have to fight the feeling of foolishly throwing money away.
I’m not throwing money away if I’m chasing correct signals.
In my case, having a profitable strategy is only 25% of the battle. My application of it is 75%. If I can get to breaking even, that’ll be a great accomplishment.
Fall down seven times, get up eight.
edit: That trade was a retracement. It’s a totally different animal than trading a whole new trend. I’d like to get better at trading retracements because there’s some amazing entries there. Lots of mullah!
If its of any comfort, for what its worth, that is most likely the case with almost all traders. The devil is almost always in the mind and not in the charts…it can be overcome 
I was looking at a trade trying to figure out which direction I should trade it. I went long, then closed it. I realized that I actually wasn’t confident in my trade.
There were three inceptions of trends. That’s too much chaos for me. It was a trend, inside a trend, inside a trend.
Yes, something is gonna happen. But, I really have no idea where it’s gonna go. When I trade, I want to place a trade because of a clue. In this trade, there’s just too much. It would really just be a stab in the dark. I don’t wanna trade like that anymore.
So, I’m staying out. I feel rather frustrated because I’m gonna miss out on some big movement, but trading randomly like this always leads to a loss for me.
By the way, I have two trades that I DIDN’T close prematurely. This is a nice change. Often, I close waaay to early. This time, I waited before moving my SL to BE (that part didn’t change anything) and I saw an exit sign, but the conditions didn’t seem right.
So, I kept my SL where it was instead of ratcheting it. I gave it room to breathe, and those two trades are still running.
I finished my trading and walked away from my computer, then a thought hit me. That confusing trade, something is gonna happen, yes. My strategy says that based on this signal, I should go long. I should go long and starting being willing to take losses.
This isn’t about making money. It’s about trading the strategy. I went back and opened a long position. We’ll see how this goes.
I’m studying tricky retracements right now. When I backtest, my strategy works. But trading it live, it’s very difficult. I’m trying to add notes about where I would have entered so I can understand my mistakes better.
Well, also to understand what I SHOULD do as well.
Well, the trade with the mixed signals…After studying a backtest, I made an error. But at least I traded with an idea–not randomly. I had the right idea, but just misplaced.
Meaning that I was thinking at least. In those situations, I feel like I’m trading randomly. This time, at least I thought it through.
I just checked on my trades. I’ve made some mistakes. I closed some trades too early.
I had a signal, but the surrounding conditions weren’t right. USD is going up right now. I thought it was going to pull back so I closed. I shorted USD, and within an hour I got stopped out. I saw what was happening and I went long on USD. I’m in the green for now. But I’m not happy about how I traded.
I want to be right. I want to look at the chart, read the clues, and be right without straddles or OCOs.
My backtests have no straddles or moving SL to BE. That’s how I want to trade.
Yesterday, I closed a trade too early. I gave in to the fear of losing money. That’s the difference between focusing on money vs focusing on trading.
When you focus on money, you get scared of losing your profits (which sometimes will happen). You will most likely close due to fear, not a signal. When you close due to a fear and not a signal, price will probably keep going in your favor.
The fear factor in trading is real…It’s very difficult to trade thru fear.
USD has gone up, then retraced. I caught some of the retracements, then I thought maybe I should stay out until I see some signals I recognize.
But I didn’t. Now, I have some trades that I’m stuck in. EUR/USD, I’m not sure what it’s gonna do. I misplaced a decimal point in my calculations and a very expensive order got triggered. I’m not sure what’s gonna happen next…
I’ve missed some trades lately, and I’ve just been scared. I see some movements, and I honestly just chicken out. That’s not following my strategy. It’s a difficult process.
Today, I saw some price action that leaves me confused. I watch highs and lows, and I’ve noticed that jumping into a trade while price is in between a high and low is dangerous. It’s better to wait until it either passes the high or passes the low. Because at that point you can watch to see what happens.
When I feel confused about what I see, it’s best to stay out. I feel a bit frustrated about not understanding what’s happening. So, I’m gonna study some charts…perhaps that’ll help clarify some things.
I have two sets of charts. One for trading, and one for back tests. The one for trading has notes all over. The backtesting one is blank. It gives me a fresh look at the current price action.
I’m looking at the charts, and I think I’m trading too frequently. I should be waiting more often. I have to keep in mind that taking all signals does not mean all the time. It means taking all signals when the conditions are right. I often take signals just because I think something is gonna happen. That’s not the same thing.
So, how do it tell the difference? I think zooming out from time to time can help with that.
I saw some trades that I should have taken, but didn’t because I was in disbelief.
It got me wondering ¨why am I not taking those trades?¨
I think I keep trying to figure out where price is going, and I get scared of getting faked out.
So, that could be something worth studying.
But, also, I think I should just lean into the fear of losing. Perhaps I should just try to trade through the fear and take the signals I’m supposed to take for just a week.
It’s almost like a suicide mission. It feels like account destruction. When I get stopped out, I don’t want to take the trade again. I start to think I’m wrong. But my strategy says I could be wrong 4 times (usually just twice) before I catch the trade.
I stop taking the trade because I’m scared of losing money. But shying away from losing money is part of the reason I don’t make much money. If I kept risking, then I would have ended up profiting, instead of only losing.
I have a note on my wall ¨trade thru the fear¨ and I don’t even look at it. I’m not taking it seriously. I’d like to try applying it for just a week and see what happens.
I might need to take it one day at a time. I could see myself applying it Monday, then by Wednesday I’ll completely forget.
I’m studying charts, and I’m getting upset with myself. When I backtest, everything works. Yes, there are some losses, but in the end the trade is very profitable.
The problem with backtesting is that when I backtest, I go straight to where the signals begin. When trading live, I panic that this could be the signal. Is that a signal? Well, there’s this signal, but the next candle is doing this. Should I reverse?
It’s just panic, when looking at is objectively. Desperation is a better word.
I saw a set up on Friday that I really wanted to take. I’ve been thinking about it all day today. I went short and was wondering if I was right to do so.
I checked on it today, Saturday, and I actually didn’t trade it after all. My note said I skipped it because the direction wasn’t clear. I’m glad I stayed out.
I just finished telling myself that it’s ok to miss out on trades if I’m not confident on what’s happening. In the back charts everything looks so simple, and rather calm.
I’m in the process of reducing my strategy to simpler steps. It requires more patience. That’s not a bad thing. Trading less is great. I tend to make it waaaaay more complicated than it needs to be.
I’m trying to get my head clear.
I think I over analyze every single candle. Backtesting does not include the emotions of live trading. That’s the problem. I need to be ok taking losses and just waiting for my signal.
I’ve seen it in my backtest where I go long, then I get stopped out because price is still bearish. In the backtest, if there’s no signal to go short, then I just wait and have to miss out on that downswing. That’s difficult. The desperation hates to miss out on such a movement. But it’s part of the strategy. Just wait, wait, wait…don’t get greedy or anxious. Wait for a signal, then start going long. Simple.