I needed a breather from the charts. I finished my trading, and I didn’t wanna go back to my practice charts. Only because I’m not sure about their practicality.
Honestly, if I wasn’t practicing on my charts, I’m not sure what to do with myself. I wanna stay focused on trading, but I have to think of a way to tweak my charts so that I can understand the big picture, and not just the little picture.
I missed some nice trades recently, and they’re the same kind of trades that I’ve had trouble with in the past. I asked myself why does this keep happening?
I think the answer is that I didn’t understand what was happening? If I’m short, why switch to long? If my strategy says to hold, then I see a contradictory signal, my strategy says to hold. So, what do I do?
I’ve been practicing and staring at charts, and I’m starting to see what I should look for in contradictory signals. I did a practice chart yesterday, and I finally traded it well. It’s only one chart, but it’s a start.
Patience, young padawan.
I’m actually tired of preparing charts and practicing charts. I really don’t wanna do it, and I have trouble concentrating. My brain is looking for anything to do besides mess with charts. But I have to continue.
I have 15 pairs in my watchlist. I actually may remove two more. I feel good with a lower number. In my mind, I know what’s going on with each one.
I used to watch 30+. That was crazy. Well, I had more money at that time also. But even when my account will increase, I’ll probably just gradually increase the lot size to reflect the same risk %.
But with respect to time, and effort it takes to concentrate/pay attention to different pairs, I’m comfortable with 12-15 pairs.
I was practicing trading all weekend, and I missed every big swing. I’ve developed some kind of fear of taking signals.
I get scared that it’s a fakeout, or that price price will keep pushing S/R and I should wait for one more candle. On one chart, price was consolidating, and I caught an amazing long entry. I knew I should focus on gong long only. Then, I saw a fakeout bearish signal. I knew it was a fakeout. But I was scared…blah blah blah. I took it, and price went to the moon without me.
This happened all weekend. This isn’t about the strategy–it’s about me. I look at charts, and I have my S/R drawn out, and everything makes perfect sense.
Yet for some reason, I get scared. Let me remind you that this is practice. Not even demo. It’s just practicing old charts.
The good thing is that the emotions are present. That means switching back to live trading will be similarly stressful, and less shocking.
But the pain associated with losing is so strong, that I cheat myself out of profitable positions.
I used to trade 20+ positions at a time. When you’re trading 5 USD crosses, and you’re wrong…you’re gonna lose across all five. Sure, being right is gonna yield a big reward, but I was seldom right. Maybe I get the fear of being wrong from that. I’m not sure. But, that’s probably right. I’ve lost so many times, that I’m scared to keep losing.
I was getting fed up while practicing. I told myself that for just one chart, I’m gonna just follow what the candles are telling me. If the candles say to stay long, then I’m gonna stay long.
I started trading that chart. I came across a bearish fakeout signal. And just a few minutes after telling myself to follow the candles and hold, there I was…taking fakeout signals because I was scared of losing the little profits I had gotten so far.
This is some kind of sickness that I have. Some kind of mental block. I’ve read the Disciplined Trader, and I’ve watched videos about trading psychology. At this point, no video is gonna change my habit.
Maybe I need to go slower, and just think a little longer before I trade…or before I switch directions, I should say.
If I can figure this out, I’ll do a lot better. I’m gonna keep working on it. Patience, young padawan.
I’m wondering if I should re-write my strategy again. Perhaps simplify it again. But I did that already.
I started writing on paper what the strategy is. It’s really simple. Yet, I’ve added small tips and pointers along the way. Maybe there’s no point in re-writing anything. I don’t know.
I thought that maybe I get confused because my brain is mixing the signals from different trade set-ups. That’s a possibility. I need to re-wire my brain.
The last two days lacked motivation. I could feel myself getting lower and lower.
Yesterday, I was getting so frustrated that I was getting antsy. I just couldn’t sit still. It was like a sugar high. I couldn’t think straight. I was trying to re-write my strategy and organize my thoughts, but it was so difficult. And on top of that, why can’t I just modify what I already have? And does it even make a difference? At some point, the my strategy has to become a way of thinking, a way of understanding how the chart speaks–like a language. I’m still on the fence about it.
I’m not sure what I have to do to re-wire my brain. I can’t just do the same thing. If I do the same practice routine, at least my mentality has to be different.
If I continue with the same practice charts, the idea has to be to exhaust my brain from thinking the same way.
Or, instead, I can design practice charts to focus exactly on the zones that I have trouble with. A series of trades where I have to decide to either buy or sell. A yes or no chart. Usually, my charts have 30 or so trades. But I may reduce the charts to five or 10 trades.
We’ll see.
I was feeling sad though. I had to stop myself. I told myself ¨stop, you’re not allowed to feel sad. sack it up!¨
I started to feel better after that. That’s when I decided that I have to keep focusing on the charts.
So, I got some motivation back. I also had some ice cream, which helps. haha
And now, back to the charts!
Patience, young padawan!
“The heights by great men reached and kept
Were not attained by sudden flight,
But they, while their companions slept,
Were toiling upward in the night.”
― Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
I used to look at W1 then go to D1. After that, eventually my focus got smaller and smaller.
I believed that I only needed to see what was happening now. Through analysis and practice, I’ve learned that the bigger picture gives CONTEXT to the current signals.
I’m recollecting samples of reversals and retracements, all over again. But this time, I’m zooming out a bit to include the bigger picture. This will give context to the signals in question.
I was looking at some of my older samples, and they’re not exactly what I need. It’s a bit annoying, but it’s worth it.
Starting next week, until indefinitely, I’m reducing my other activities a bit so that I can focus more on trading. I don’t want to, but it’s necessary. I’m willing to pay the price.
But this extra time is not for goofing around. It’s not for watching movies or sleeping later. It’s for studying.
As I collect chart samples, I have to be open to the idea of letting go of some tightly-held ideas.
I took so many trades based on certain PA that some candles are burned into my brain (pun intended). That means, in order to embrace my new developments in PA trading, I have to be willing to let go or adjust my attachment to those candles.
It’s a little scary, and also annoying. But, I have to be willing if this is where my journey is taking me.
I’ve been collecting samples and I started off with AUD. First, I got about 15 samples from AUD/SGD, and I realised this is getting ridiculous. It’ll take way too long to go thru 30 pairs or so.
I really only need about 20 samples in total of a particular set up. Instead of what I’ve been doing, I’m just gonna collect two samples of each major currency. I’ll end up with about 20 samples. That’s plenty.
One thing I’m noticing from my analysis is that with certain setups, I don’t have to try trading the first signal. Often times, price will keep pushing S/R.
But, next, I’d like to try to understand when to follow contradictory signals.
I’m doing some analysis of past charts and I’m learning a few things. But, I’m starting to wonder if the biggest solution for my trading losses is in me–not the charts.
I’m doing research and wondering to what end am I doing research? There’s no end to the research if the biggest problem is my ability to overcome the fear of loss and take a trade when I’m supposed to.
I’ve taken so many losses during the random walk phase. But, if I open a position at support and just wait to see if price hits resistance, and doing nothing in between except waiting, a lot of my losses and guesswork is avoided. Less stress from trying to catch the trend, etc.
The main problem is taking the trade when the sign appears in the right conditions. I’ve waited and regretted so many times. But, perhaps that’s not necessarily something that the charts can solve. I can look for more reassuring signs, but it all comes down to me. The signs don’t really come any clearer. And if they did, I’d miss most of them because I’m scared to take them.
Therefore, studying charts, analyzing signals, etc…it can only take me but so far. At some point, it’s not about signals, it’s just about me.
I am a regularly reader of your journal and think so, too. My breakthrough came when i stopped over analyzing and started to ignore certain S/R levels and contradictory signals. I started to think in probabilities like that: When price hits S/R it either bounces or continues. Anything can happen. If price hits S/R and i trade either the bounce or the continuation - ignoring everything else - , how often would i win if i had a RRR of 1:1, 1:1,5, 1:2, 1:3 etc.? I back tested, chose one RRR, forward tested, changed RRR and went live. I still struggled holding on to the plan, but i managed to find the right path again.
When ever i read your journal it comes to my mind that maybe you are thinking to much - like i did in the past - and an statistical approach would be better for you. Maybe it is because you have so much time between trades. Thats why I wanted to ask you, why dont you try to trade lower timeframes? IMO it suits people like us - emotional traders - better. Why? Because the next win is not too far away. If i would trade the daily like you, i would die of a heart attack during a losing streak.
I just took some screenshots of a few charts. I’m taking a break before I look at them.
These are my recent charts that I’ve used arrows to mark all my trades.
To be honest, doing analysis, while boring, makes me feel productive. It makes me think I’m getting something done. But just because I’m busy, it doesn’t mean I’m productive.
I just came across this:
They’re busy, but they aren’t productive. Being productive is less about always having something to do, and more about making sure that what you’re doing is propelling you toward a goal. Busy people stay busy for the sake of it. Productive people work with purpose and intent.
Thank you very much!
Right. I get mixed up because I ignore my basic strategy. If I’m not sure which direction price will continue, look at the most recent signal I WOULD have traded and just follow that. After that, just WAIT for a good entry.
But you’re right. Perhaps because I have so much time between trades, I get tempted to jump in. I feel like I’m missing something, when I’m really not.
Less is more!
My goal is to be less busy, not busier! haha So, moving to a lower TF would be the opposite direction I want to go in. I don’t want to occupy my mind. I prefer to trade D1 and just be patient. But I have to teach myself more patience.
Contradictory signals is what I’m studying now. I get so jumpy around contradictory signals because I’m so panicky and scared of missing the swing.
@Worker_Bee What kind of emotions did you feel whenever you saw contradictory signals? Confusion? Anger? Excitement?
For me, it feels like plain old confusion. And that’s the point. In my mind it is, anyway. It’s big institutions trying to confuse little institutions. It might not even be true, but that’s the game in my mind. Someone is in there trying to create confusion to shake out others and create liquidity. All I have to do is wait for the right entry, manage my risk, and let the probability game play out.
And if I don’t see an entry, there’s no need to panic and force myself to jump in. I just have to wait. Some kind of signal WILL come.
hahaha For me, there should only be but so many losses in a row. It’s all according to plan.
Well, confusion at the start, then after a few seconds anger, followed by sadness that i will never be able to predict the markets and be a profitable trader without spending hours in front of charts for one single trade.
I want to explain this a little more. In the past i tried to find a sign in price or in indicators which could have told me what was going to happen. Bounce or continuation. Just like you. You are searching for signs. But maybe you have to accept that there are no signs. In hindsight yes, there are plenty of signs, but live? No sir.
Then i tried to follow the trend. But which trend? There are plenty of trends in different timeframes. I started to accept that markets are random. At support in an uptrend, price can tank and stop you out just to rise without a pullback after that.
Now i just trade what i see. Price is oscillating at support? Hm, i wonder what it will do next? If it breaks down i go short here, if it breaks up i go long here. If it fakes me out, well then i loose, thats the game. And sometimes when price tanks i have a short winner before it continues in trend direction again. And sometimes a new trend starts. Everything is just random and sometimes really ridiculous.
I dont go back anymore and try to find a sign which could have told me what exactly was going to happen.
@dushimes, your tenacious drive towards being a successful trader is noteworthy. I just want to make a small suggestion. Support and Resistance has been wrongly taught in almost all forex educational sources. The concept of S&R should not be used in a vacuum.
What I mean is that support and resistance should have momentum behind it. That momentum is trend. Identify a trend. Once a trend is confirmed look for the nearest support (if it is an uptrend) or the nearest resistance (if it is a downtrend). If you don’t get an entry you scratch the trade and wait for another opportunity. I think you may have to adopt lower timeframes like the 4-hour chart in addition to the daily chart you use. If you already know this or have been doing this and still not profitable then you have more practice ahead of you to master the concept.
Yup…I can relate, for sure. haha.
But for me and my strategy, there ARE signs! My biggest problem is taking those trades despite the fear. I also have another problem of not waiting long enough and confusing non-signals for signals.
Ok, yeah. You got me here. There is some ridiculous randomness in the market. But there are clues for favourable times to get in. And that’s the rub.
Thanks for the suggestion!!
Heights by great men, reached and kept were not attained by sudden flight.
But they, while their companions slept, toiled upward in the night.
I’ve said this many times before, but I keep noticing it.
Whenever I review charts, everything looks so easy. About 80% of the charts look super easy. The remaining 20% would require a second look.
It’s so easy that it leaves me curious. ¨Damn bro. Why didn’t you catch that?¨
The main difference between completed charts and live charts is the patience. Perhaps, my lack of patience makes me anxious, and I look for clues that aren’t there.
When reviewing charts, there’s no patience involved. The sign is immediately available, and the exit signal is immediately available as well. Live, however, you’re forced to be patient.
I have to try to adhere more to my routine when I’m preparing old charts. I draw my S/R lines, then I…yup…WAIT.
I must keep in mind that not trading IS a position!!
I’m still collecting samples of setups. Basically, I’m collecting approximately 20 screenshots for both bull and bear setups. Different types of retracements, reversals, price pushing S/R, etc.
I made a list, and I’m just working my way down the list. I missed a beautiful entry last week. Basically, price was near resistance, then bounced. I doubted it and was waiting for price to get CLOSER to resistance. Now, price is going down, down, down. I’m thinking to myself, ¨what’s wrong with me?¨
It’s happened so many times.
I was watching Book of Boba Fett.
And The Armorer said: Persistence without insight will lead to the same outcome.
This got me thinking. I have a bit more patience now, and I’ve been studying charts more. But I’m still missing some trades that I want.
Perhaps it’s time for me to go back to following just a few pairs. I’m talking about maybe two or three. No more than five. But, maybe less. To be honest, I think two will be a good start.
With my remaining trading time, I can continue to study charts and practice speed trading. This time, though, when I prepare my speed charts, I’m going to add arrows on the chart to show me when I miss a trade.
So, if I doubt a signal and don’t take it, there will be a correction arrow to show me that I should have taken it. Hopefully, this will help me align my thinking with my strategy.
