One thing I struggle with is potentially profitable trading vs strategic trading.
Meaning that there are tons of profitable trades that aren’t strategic. I’m looking at charts and I think about the random candles that I could have traded and made some money.
Those trades aren’t really strategic. In my mind, I can stretch an aspect of my strategy to justify it, but trading such candles aren’t profitable long-term.
It’s almost random. ´Oh, if I had sold on that candle, I could have made money.´ Then those thought enter my mind the next time I see the same candle. You think it ever ends well? At that moment, I think it’s a good idea. The next day after I get stopped out I realize it wasn’t a good idea after all.
I’m trying to make money here, but the way to money is focusing on strategy and trading well–not on money.
I’m looking at a chart right now, and I really wanna jump in. But I’d really just be guessing. SOMETHING is gonna happen, and I wanna get a piece of the action.
But that’s not strategic trading. A little voice in my head said I should wait for confirmation first.
Patience, and self-control doesn’t feel very good. It feels frustrating, boring, wimp-like, and I’m gonna miss out on those potential profits.
But this is exactly what I was talking about before.
This is one of those moments. Sure, I could miss out on a nice move, or price might push my SL a little. Without confirmation, I don’t have enough understanding of the situation.
This when I start wanting to go back to bed. haha
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I know the story, but I wanted read it anyway. haha It’s a great story that never gets old.
Thanks!
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I didn’t realize it before but I think I’m overexposed with CHF. I have three CHF crosses I’m trading.
I think two may be best…
I’m looking at some candles that look tempting, but they’re not favorable signals. I don’t wanna keep taking trades that I feel like I’m guessing.
Sure, price could start trending after this candle, but I have to be willing to wait for the most favorable conditions.
I’m trying to turn over a new leaf. So, I have to be willing to do things that I wasn’t doing before.
I’m practicing charts, yet again. I procrastinate it a lot. Mostly because I’m doing it for the sake of doing it. I’m not even sure how much difference it makes anymore.
It’s better than NOT studying charts.
A problem I have perhaps is overthinking.
I just looked at a chart, and I would have expected price to break support, but it actually gives an UNEXPECTED bullish sign. Then price proceeds bullish.
If this were a live trade, I could see myself being in disbelief. I would say the market is trying to fake me out, and I would stay bearish, then watch my profits dwindle. The sign is clear. There’s a signal as well as confirmation. The timing is unexpected.
This is a problem. I’m trying to teach myself to hold and not close because I’m getting nervous.
I’m getting confused between what I’m seeing, and what my EMOTIONS want me to see. How can I tell the difference? How do you know if what you’re seeing is real or an illusion?
This is something I have to think about.
The market will ALWAYS do unexpected things at unexpected times. I must be ready for the unexpected, and not be so strongly attached to my view of the market at the time. Sure, it’s bearish, but I can’t hold so tightly to that view that I deny any new information.
Another thought…if I focus on sign + confirmation, or clue + confirmation as I sometimes call it, then that’s how I tell the difference.
That’s the whole point of a strategy. I may not win every time, but I have to have faith that if I see a clue + confirmation then I should follow it.
If I don’t see it, then I should stay out. Clear sign + confirmation is not an illusion.
If I see just one of them, I know it could be worth paying attention to, but not worth trading.
I just get so scared of losses, it really leaves me confused often…
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Your success is determined by the details. Learn, trade, make conclusions.
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I suppose I wish I could take the guesswork out of trading. But it’s always a guess–to an extent.
No sign is 100%, right? But then there are EDUCATED guesses. It’s the element of guessing that I’m having trouble with, it seems.
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There are signs that I’ve missed that I should have taken a chance on. That’s something for me to think about.
I gotta be willing to take a chance when I see something. If there’s a sign, I shouldn’t assume it’s a trick. There was one trade that was super profitable, but I doubted it.
This is an aspect that I have to embrace: there will always be some element of doubt, but that doesn’t mean I should take the trade.
Sometimes, I forget to recognize what I’ve done correctly. I have a trade running now that I entered during a pullback. It’s the kind of trade that I find challenging because it’s a retracement with only one sign–there is no confirmation.
Also, there was some random walking going on in one chart, and I WANTED to go long, but I told myself the conditions were not favourable. Of course, my FOMO told me to go long and there was a little battle in my head.
In the end, I chose to stay out. And yup…the next candle was bearish. I did the right thing by staying out.
There are some improvements along the way. Patience, young padawan.
Do you have different scenarios for different market behavior?
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Yes. And unfortuntately the most profitable strategy is the riskiest, and the safer one requires more patience.
ok, maybe from the other side, let’s say you have long transaction, but the market didn’t move as expected, do you have scenario what to do? exit earlier? sell part your transaction?
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I ALWAYS use a stoploss.
If I expect price to go long, but price shows to be still bearish, there I will look for a bearish sign, meaning that price will continue to push bearish…or I’ll have to wait for a bullish sign.
Basically, I have to observe and be patient. I also have to think about if I missed a reversal sign (which has happened). If trend has reversed and I missed it, then I’ll have to close right away.
But if I suspect it’s just a pullback, then I’ll hold.
do you use any indicator?
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I don’t use indicators. My strategy is based on price action. I no longer have any interest in indicators.
In another thread we were talking about a strategy working all the time or not.
Well, it seems that I may drop SGD/JPY from my roster. I don’t like how it’s moving lately, in the past two months.
It’s not a good match for my strategy at the moment, and I’ve been trading it poorly.
OR…OR…I can just stop trading it for now and keep an eye on it in case I do see something that looks favourable.
