I think I remember that way back up in your journal you mentioned that you wanted to figure this out for yourself and didn’t want others making suggestions. I deeply respect that and I’m trying not to “interfere” even though your journal is on my regular reading list!
But I thought I might add a few catalysts here that might stimulate your thinking?
Given that the only price facts we have are 1) what has happened before, and 2) what is happening right now, how can one ever establish at the start of a new move whether it will end up as a “longer swing” or a “shorter swing”? For example, many quote that an uptrend is identified by higher highs and higher lows - but you don’t know that until a series of highs and lows have actually been achieved!
In other words,at the start of any move, they all look the same. I don’t think you can divide moves into shorter or longer categories except retrospectively.
But is there even any need to try to?
So that leads to the next question: How do you decide that a new move is forming? But before that I think one needs to have a clear definition of what, and how, one is looking to trade. Am I looking for new trends from a consoliation period? reversals from an existing trend? a ranging market? etc.
I think one needs to identify oneself as much as (if not more than!) the market structure one is looking at. What kind of trader am I? what timeframes am I working? what instruments generally reflect my interests and aims?
For example, I trade off the 4-hour chart because that suits my character and the timezone where I live. I trade with a move and not against, Therefore I want a market that moves well, and far when it does! So I trade the SP500 almost exclusively. I look at other markets out of interest but not to trade. I only need one market if I can trade it well and consistently! I take all my signals from the 4-hour chart and only then do I drop to the same chart on a 1-hour time frame to seek confirmation and timing. This 1-hour confirmation applies to both entries and possible premature exits. So I basically look at the charts 5 times per day: morning, midday, mid-afternoon (after US data releases) mid-evening and close. This suits me but may not suit other trading styles at all! Which is why one must be clear what one is trying to achieve and how.
I see this personal trading style analysis as a critical first step in this business. If one does not have a clear and concrete (and simple!) profile of what kind of trading one wants to do, how can one decide what to look for in the charts?
Only then, in my opinion, can one decide what to look for in the charts. What do I need to see that indicates when my kind of move is starting/continuing/ending - which matches the kind of trading I am looking for?
I actually found it useful in earlier times to write it all down. I actually produced a pdf file of my trading style, complete with examples and explanations, as though it was for another audience. It had to be clear and workable!! .I still edit and re-read that file regularly.
I think what I am saying here is pretty much what you mentioned above. That the issues are not so much in the charts as they are in the person. It is we that make it complex, not the price, which, afterall, just goes up and down!
Once one knows who one is and what type of trading one wants to do, then one can define what signs, signals, indicators, etc one needs to work three decisions: where to get in, which way, and where to get out.
That sounds easy, but it is not. Oh, how many times I have got the direction right and lost money - and got the direction wrong and still made money!!!
Personally, I think the greatest effort needs to be made on the choice of exit style and levels. What type of move are we anticipating? what is the right risk exposure? what type of stoploss, fixed or trailing? previous S/R levels? etc, etc.
I am a very simple guy and I know I simply cannot do all that analysis for multiple products, hence why I specialise in one. But each trader needs to define which, and how many, instruments to follow - and follow to the extent that it/they are in your genes!
Sometimes it might feel like its going back to the beginnings, but it is not: Define your trader profile and style, select one instrument, define what you need to see in order to base decisions, and decide which tools are going to provide that. Then work it, refine it, and apply all the experience that you have gained so far - and then, backed by a growing confidence and familiarity, add other products to your portfolio
I think many traders fail to realise that unless, and until, they build confidence in the consistency of their trading approach/system, via its documented success, they will never get to trade with sufficiently large position size to make it all worthwhile - a tried and tested system with appropriate risk control, and the patience and discipline to stick to it. Without that, one is just trading a house of cards which eventually doesn’t stand the emotional strain that accompanies the uncertainty and grows along with position size until…
Just some personal thoughts, just to stimulate some questioning - I’ll delete this post if you feel it is getting in the way…just say so!