I didn’t even think to check any indexes. Very good point.
I probably need to study more macroeconomics, but the ATH in 1989 is not technically the same ATH in 2024, right?
Hitting 39,000 isn’t the same because the currency isn’t the same. In 1989 USD/JPY was 12.59 (as per google).
35 years later it’s 158. That’s gotta mean something. But what?
Even though the economy is strong, the currency is growing weaker.
Then again, does any of that even matter? Japan is a first world country, and they’re very rich (despite their debt). Everything goes up and goes down, then goes back up again.
JPY is down, perhaps we should watch for its rebound!
It’s so hot, it gets hard to think. Instead of giving up on studying, I take cold showers to cool off. The cold showers are very helpful.
Practice is just so-so. Retracements are hurting me. So, I’m taking a moment to stop and collect some samples for comparison. I have trouble finding the right time to jump in, and perhaps doing a comparison of some samples can be helpful.
Japan’s biggest challenge is an aging population and low birth rates, which make it difficult to replace the labor force.
How Japan deals with its birth rate hitting a record low.
With birth rates dropping in Japan, a company there has announced it is stopping production of diapers for babies — as demand is not as high anymore. Instead, it’s refocusing on the growing market: diapers for adults.
I think that depends on your timeframe perspective. I would argue for day trading or sniping, this is irrelevant. Personally, where I have historically taken positions on Forex, it has been for months, not minutes. So my mindset is biased towards monthly or yearly objectives. As I said for short term I would be looking for an opportunity to short, but in the longer term (eg the rest of 2014) I expect the carry trade to continue robustly and that would cause me to go long. Now for how much of my portfolio, and with deciding my stop loss for such an opportunity, that is another thing. When I have moved home (hopefully within a month) I will be far more settled in mind to devote some more time to my medium term Forex planning, and may just revise my previous participation in that opportunity. For now, I am happily (or unhappily depending on my mood) stuck with a 2024 crypto trading plan with 80%+ of my crypto funds assigned to BTC, ETH and SOL, and am patiently waiting the talked-about “new summer of crypto” for this 4 year cycle. I doubt I will make any changes until after the UK election 4Jul24 (ironic), and perhaps not until after the US Nov24 election either.
It’s the psychology, not the relative value. It’s like everyone talks about silver getting to its 1980 peak of $50 an ounce, which it did in 2011, and is now about 60% of that value. With inflation taken into account, it’s fair to say today’s equivalent would be more like $500 an ounce, not $50. But almost the entire class of commentators (silver bugs or the opposite) always talk about the famous 1980 $50 an ounce. I know it is wrong from a mathematical and value perspective, but some of these “known levels” become self-fulfilling prophecies, like Fibonacci series indicators.
RIght, right. I didn’t necessarily mean from a trading perspective. I just meant from a position trading/macroeconomics perspective. I get curious how these things play out.
Believe me, I have no interest in dumping 20% of my liquidity into JPY. Although, that wouldn’t be such a bad idea a year from now. (when it starts bottoming out–no this is not a prediction!)
In cases like Japan, robots are certainly needed. This eliminates the need to flood the country with millions of immigrants who aren’t familiar with the Japanese culture.
Could be, but supplementing a nation’s population with robots sounds like a recipe for disaster. How do they expect to increase tax revenue with increased bots?
Is the government gonna tax robots at McDonalds?
In the video above, there’s an estimate that Japan’s population will be down 30% in about 10 years, if Japan continues as is.
JPY 1-month treasury notes are yielding 0.2%. What the hell are they thinking? They have high debt, a dwindling population, and strict immigration policies.
That’s like if your boat was flooding, and instead of a bucket to scoop out water, I gave you a fork.
I read about a traveling investor who went to Japan around 2000. His observation was that Japan, while having an ¨overseas reputation as an efficient entrepreneurial power, is strangled by inflexibility and overregulation, to the point where the creativity and innovation that made the country great is rapidly evaporating.¨
I’m a big fan of Japan. I wanna see the country and the people do better. But the people at the helm are idiots. From what I’ve been told, the people’s salaries haven’t increased in 30 years. That’s wild.
This is why I didn’t respond to your question about what should be done to fix Japan’s economy, you can see I don’t have a clue, I exacerbated the problem.
Japan’s population decline is the fastest I have ever seen.
It’s not as if I’m in a position of influence over Japan’s economy, anyway. It’s just fun to speculate, though.
But I know what you mean about flooding the country with immigrants. Japan’s culture is quite different from western culture. Meaning, it’s easier to adapt to Mexican or French culture than to Japan’s.
Too many immigrants would dilute Japanese culture. So, on second thought, you are right. I was wrong. Massive immigration isn’t their best solution. Imagine 2 million immigrants from Southeast Asian coming to Japan, and none of them can read Japanese.
Think of what would happen to Japan’s culture long-term.
So, I guess the best solution is to get their Japanese citizens to start pumping out some…units.
From trading at around 210 Zimbabwean dollars to $1 at the beginning of March [2022], it is now [in 2022] trading at 400 to $1 and black market dealers are selling it for $450.
Can you imagine needing a fistful of money to buy a loaf of bread?
How about 90% unemployment? That’s right: 90%.
Managing a country this poorly is harder than doing it right. You’d think a teenager was running the country.
As of 2024, the Zimbabwe dollar is trading at 30,000 against the greenback. Its value is almost 0.
This is what happens under military governments. The leader knows how to successfully overthrow a government, but not how to run it.
The Central Bank has decided to adopt the gold standard. I say it’s a smart move. Unless the President squanders the country’s reserves, somehow.
Here’s a recent article about the switch to the gold standard.
If any country needed a reset button, it’s Zimbabwe.
I’ve been practicing charts for a few days. Sometimes, I do well, and I understand what’s happening in the charts.
But sometimes, price will continue when I thought it was reversing. I wanna understand the charts better–not just guess. Some of them leave me completely baffled. I’d like to say I know why, but I really don’t.
I’m gonna take a step back, collect samples, and see what clues I can find. I feel frustrated to pause my practice and do this kind of analysis. But, it’s really important. The ego has to chill.
It’s also scary because, what if I don’t find anything helpful? I don’t know what that would mean for me.
I’ve noticed that when trying to understand what strategic rule applies to a chart, I get frustrated and just my brain spits out some generic, vague rule.
It’s as if my brain rage quits or something, and gives me some nonsense rule in hope that I’ll accept it as valid and just move on.
This time, I have to do better analysis. We’ll see if I come up with anything, or if that generic rule has some validity afterall.
That could be a possibility because often we make things way more complicated than they need to be.
Your task is stick to the plan, if the market moves against you, it doesn’t mean your strategy is bad. Trading is imbalance between profit and loss. Sometimes your transactions will be lose even all signs show excellent entry point, sometimes the market show moves where you could achieve excellent profit but you were not in the market, you have to accept it. Bear in mind, the market evolving and it is hard to adapt discretionary method to new environment.
