Personally, i think the issue is just a question of confidence based on positive results.
I don’t think it is enough just to know that signals, and therefore trades, would be valid. I think you should journal the actual financial results from all signals and see the results.
There is nothing more effective than seeing consistent results emerging from your journal to get your eagerly waiting for the next trade - and keep you focused on the big picture.
Unless and until you actually quantify your trade results you cannot ever be sure whether your work is likely to produce a net profit - and find that confidence?
Hi.
I am going to ask you a series of questions to determine what is wrong with you, your strategy or your plans. As long as you reply, I will keep asking questions until we get to the crux of the matter.
Question 1. Have you determined the scope of the markets you trade in? Is it just Forex pairs, or do you trade other stuff besides?
Thanks. The problem is just me. I know what I have to do. I just have to get myself to do it. I’m working on it step by step. It’s frustrating, but it’s coming along.
That is an interesting question @Mondeoman, I was thinking of the same thing when pondering @dushimes description of his trading strategy, in particular:
If one is looking to trade on longer time frames and profit from the rare, but big, trends to make the main profit and cover the string of small losses, then I would think that indices might be a better market than currencies?
I think @dushimes would do well to take you up on your offer considering you broad and extensive experience of many markets.
I am not good at “mindset” stuff so I won’t comment on that! But I would say that you have a strong persistence and determination as evidenced by the hours that you have put into your studies. And that alone justifies continuing with your work!
I would add one further point. Fear is a terrible distorter in trading and creates so many unnecessary problems. Here is one way of looking at things:
I don’t have any fear in taking positions because I have a 100% success rate! Yep, that is correct, 100% success rate. Every single trade I take is a success. But, of course, they do not all make a profit!
What I mean is that every single trade I take is in accordance with my strategy in both key areas: 1) where to get in, 2) where to get out. I have no idea when entering each individual trade how it will turn out. but I do know that whichever way it goes it will meet my strategy criteria. Therefore, whatever the outcome it was a successful trade.
Its a bit like you buy a new car and you decide to take comprehensive insurance. You don’t want any accidents but you know every time you drive there is a risk. But if and when one occurs, your strategy has you covered, and you continue to enjoy your driving. Isn’t that what we do with trading?
We deliberately take on risk because we know without a position there is no profit. But we build our risk/money management rules to ensure that the risks are covered. So provided we stay within our rules every trade is successful - where does fear come into that?
Good. Does your strategy follow trending forex markets or does it also try to identify and profit from ranging markets? Do you have a technique for confirming whether the pair you are trading is trending up, trending down, or ranging within the timeframe you want to trade?
What sign or signs do you use to determine that a potential trade can be set up?
For a market that is trending up?
For a market that is trending down?
For a market that is ranging?
@dushimes It seems to me that @Mondeoman is offering you a unique opportunity to benefit from his wide experience, almost a private mentorship. And yet it seems from the brevity of your replies to him that you are not interested at all…Do you really see yourself as one of those great men who are “toiling upward in the night while their companions slept”?
So, maybe instead of “toiling upward in the night while the rest of us sleep” might I suggest a more appropriate description could be “going round in circles while your companions are moving on”:
You do not give details of your strategy/strategies, neither do you post examples, and you do not seem to value third party input. That is all OK, of course, it is your thread. I even kind of recall you saying somewhere at the start of your journey that you wanted to achieve success on your own without outside help - and that is also OK, of course. It is just good to know that because forums are public and people generally assume posters wish to talk about the things they post.
I sincerely really hope you get where you want to be, however long it takes
Looking at BabyPips Market Milk page, the indicators for relative strength and weakness are shown below. Which currency pair would you choose to analyze first when doing your daily / weekly / scheduled market analysis looking for trading opportunities?
I appreciate all your help but, I’m not discussing or taking advice on my strategy, because following different advice will pull me in different directions. For the first time in my life, I’m choosing my own path and someone else isn’t choosing it for me.
So, I have my path, and I’m not veering from it.
The psychological part is my real challenge, and I’m open to discussing that.
You are a discretionary trader (not a mechanical/automated system trader) and that means our strategy and our psychological actions/reactions and not mutually exclusive events at all.
Naturally, our basic personal pyschological identity and characteristics do indeed enormously affect our decision-making, and we do need to be familiar with that side of us.
But if the strategy is not entirely clear and leaves too much to our discretionary input, then the strategy itself can create those negative pyschological issues that are causing the problems.
Uncertainty, lack of confidence, reluctance to enter, FOMO, fear of losing, premature closure, etc, etc. are not entirely due to core personal pyschological traits - they are newly-formed from the experiences endured from our trading history - and can be corrected.
For example, it may be that you are experiencing a similar phenomenon to myself with my method. Whenever I look at historical charts, the signals simply leap off the page at me and there is no doubt about them - as the following price action always confirms - BUT - whenever I am faced with the same signal set-up in real-time, without the future price action, the situation looks very different and it takes a great leap of faith to jump into a position.
The issue then becomes “what encourages/discourages taking that leap”? And for me it was simply the historic success/failure experience. That was why journalling was so critical in developing that confidence to take the leaps because it proved numerically and factually that, over time, it worked. It showed a win rate of 75-80% with an R:R of around 1:1-1.5.
It meant that my discretionary element was only concerned with outside factors such as time of day/week, data releases, national holidays, etc and not with whether to trust my signals or not.
So, what am I saying here? That is might be worth focusing on your current signals as they arise and not so intently on the historical charts and see what, if anything, is causing your doubts and/or possible misinterpretations of what you are seeing. It may well be that even a small change, such as waiting for one more completed candle for confirmation, or adding another TF, before entering, can change the outcome - and erase at least some of what you are calling psychological issues? I think it is important to differentiate between personal pyschological traits and pyschological reactions to results?
Just some (last) thoughts for now. But I will still be following your progress here. You are an interesting case study!
No problem my friend. I hope you find your way to overcome your psychological challenge. Did you read any of Van Tharp’s books? He is a trader’s psychologist.
I have read Super Trader and Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom.
And about risk management, I have almost always bought non-fiction books second hand. Amazon has a broad selection, but in the UK I tend to find eBay has some amazingly cheap (or cost effective) second hand books, most of which look like they have never been opened. I don’t go for the absolute cheapeast, but saving range from 50% to 90%. That’s my kind of trade.
