Here are my RT trades I’ve placed for the 8th:
Limit Buy USD/CHF at 1.05096
Limit Buy EUR/USD at 1.53246
Limit Sell USD/JPY at 105.337
Limit Buy GBP/USD at 1.94460
Hey Dale, just wanted to let you know I finally got my first two SI entries… they hit their entry prices almost simultaneously.
short CHF/JPY @ 98.95
short EUR/JPY @ 160.50
I also have a stop order set for GBP/JPY to go short as well, but it is still about 60 pips away from being hit. GBP/USD also went 60+ points below it’s highest ASI which would signal a short entry soon but it’s adx rating is below 20 so I am ignoring it this time. The criteria I am using to enter these trades is an ADX rating of at least 25, and I am also looking at the shape of the adx line, and whether or not it is pointing up, and to finish a little bit of a “human factor” as I look at possible support or resistance levels and whether the entry price is above/below these.
EDIT: stop order on gbp/jpy was also just hit… wow it really broke through it fast too. Still very, very early, but here are the profits so far
CHF/JPY +39 pips
EUR/JPY +55 pips
GBP/JPY +31 pips
I’m a bit concerned that I have gotten three signals to go short and all three were JPY crosses, but that’s the way it is I guess, I’m going to follow the rules to a “T” and see what happens.
Hi Randont,
I am also using the RT system to trade instruments low on the ADX/ADXR scale. I’m interested to know why you have chose USDJPY, EURUSD and USDCHF as these are mid table in my ADX/ADXR scale.
I like GBPUSD, EURSEK and USDCAD as these are right at the bottom with values of around 20 or less.
Just interested to know your methods.
Best Regards
Boca
Good (Thursday) morning all!!!
WOW!!! Looks like everyone is now ‘cooking with gas’!!! Well done and I hope the trades all go well for you.
Now I just KNOW that there are people that have been watching the (my) (our) AUD/NZD trade!!! Well: as you’ve no doubt gathered it’s gone ‘pearshaped’ in ‘spectacular style’!!! (Referring to my last post to Randon which nobody has commented on by the way: it’s THIS type of trade that I was talking about i.e. without sound money management I can guarantee that I’d not feel like posting here this morning)!!!
Anyway: I’m interested to get some views on this trade. I’ve been looking for ANY sign that could have / would have alerted me to the fact that this pair was going to go ‘through the roof’ as it did last night. From where I sit: there is not a single indicator, Wilder trading system, or technical reason signalling to NOT have been short on this trade OTHER than the following:
Looking at the last couple of bars the bars were making a higher high every day and had tested the same resistance level above i.e. a pennant was forming and the break is usually to the ‘straight edge’. Correct???
Other than that (which is purely candlestick trading / analysis and chart pattern recognitiion) can anyone see any other reason for this strong rally up (excluding the news data from Australia and New Zealand which IS in fact the cause of this but it’s technical analysis I’m looking for here).
I mean: I’ve thrown every indicator ‘in the book’ (not limited to ‘THE book’) at this chart and aside from the Volatility System there was no reason to NOT be short on this trade OR to NOT violate the Swing Index System and NOT stop and reverse yesterday!!!
It’s just one of those REAL dissapointing trades right now. While I have no doubt that at some point soon it’s going to turn (based on the fact that at some point soon traders are going to want to TP on Oil at these levels and this should pull Gold down with it as I previously stated) I’d like some ‘technical analysis’ from YOU lot!!! (Just to ‘compare notes’ as it were).
And like I said earlier (and I cannot stress this enough): had it not been for what I consider to be my SOUND money management rules I know of at least four other people who would be getting ready to ‘shoot me’ right now!!! Instead: those same people will STILL have cause to celebrate.
Dale, not sure about what signals you are getting from what systems, but with my data using the SI aud/nzd is still a bit away from going short… another 45 points or so on the ASI I believe until today’s spike which obviously will delay it for a while longer.
I did read your reply to randot about money management, and I agree that it is the most important thing in your system, because it doesn’t matter how many pips your system gets if your account is wiped out and you can’t trade. I’m probably on the conservative side too (50:1 margin, 7-8% per trade and no more than 50% total margin).
For interest sake:
Remember that I’ve been saying that for some or the other reason HBOP, LBOP, S1, and R1 are ‘key’ levels (RT System)??? And I’ve also said that I’m not too happy with the fact that a ‘trend mode trade’ is initiated if / when either HBOP or LBOP is penetrated???
Well I’ve just discovered WHY:
Pivot Points!!!
HBOP = R3, LBOP = S3, S1 = R1, and B1 = S1!!!
How about that!!!
And THAT is why initiating a ‘trend mode trade’ if / when either HBOP or LBOP is penetrated does not seem to work too well!!! If you know anything about Pivot Points you’ll know that R3 and S3 are normally referred to as ‘the dead high or dead low of the day’!!!
Thanks Nick for that.
I initially went short on the pair because of a valid SI System signal three days ago but when the SI System gave me a signal to stop and reverse yesterday I ignored the signal thinking it was a false signal that would just end up realising a loss on the stop and reverse for no good reason. I ignored the signal based on the fact that everything ELSE was in place for a good short trade i.e. ADX, Parabolic SAR, RSI, and the fact that there was a ‘plain to see’ resistance line just above (and for good measure I ‘slapped on’ Stochastics, and Bill Williams’ AO and AC). The only sign from what I can see of ‘impending danger’ was the higher lows and the pennant formation and this concerns me deeply for the simple reason that as you know I’m NO candlestick or chart pattern trader!!!
I’m strictly trading the majors for now. It just takes way to long to do more as I’m doing it by hand. Takes me about an hour just to get my charts updated. I spent 4 hours yesterday setting up RT and SI charts, complete excel newb though. Hoping as I get more familiar with excel that will change. I need to find a tutorial on the web, gonna do that when I have more time. I’m also planning on starting a deltastock account soon and then I won’t have to spend as much time on charts and can focus on the instruments more.
Dale, I think oil and gold(to a lesser degree) much more fundamental than most other instruments. Also a HUGE factor imo is the war going on. I wouldnt be suprised to see the price of oil continue to rise till the war is over. Just seems to me that comdolls never work out very well for you, or maybe you’re just sharing the comdoll trades that don’t and keeping the succesfull ones secret. I think making a list of you top instruments with the most losses and then stay away from them might help?
Cheers,
Randon
Hey Randon,
Thanks for the response and insight.
I would have agreed with you a while back i.e. about staying away from the ‘commdolls’ but I’ve had no problem with any of them of late i.e. many successful trades on a variety of ‘commdoll’ pairs (the ONLY ones I stay away from funnily enough is the ???/ZAR pairs mainly because of the spread). Other than this trade no problems any more with them i.e. it does not matter which system I’ve used I’ve made profits (sometimes small and sometimes big). I was just hoping to find / see something that I missed on this pair is all. The strange thing is that it’s ONLY this pair that’s going ‘topside’ i.e. the AUD is falling steadily right now against ALL other currencies except the NZD (which is yet ANOTHER reason WHY this SHOULD have been ‘the perfect short trade’)!!! I mean last night while all of this was happening I took profit on AUD/USD short (RT System trade)!!! Can you believe that!!! I’m also 100% sure that the RBA will leave rates unchanged tomorrow as well and are pretty much done with their rate hikes too (the AUD is the ‘darling of the carry trade’ at the moment)!!! Look: this is not a ‘train smash’ (maybe that’s how it’s ‘coming across’) i.e. I could TP on all my VS trades right now and take the hit on AUD/NZD and I’ll still be ‘up’ for the month but it will cut my percentage gain to shreds i.e. right now WITHOUT this position my % gain would be 42% for the month so far (if I closed all open trades) but WITH this position taken into account it would only be 18%. That’s a HUGE ‘knock’ if you see what I’m getting at.
Edit:
As far as Oil and ‘the war’ is concerned I don’t disagree with you at all. Having said that: this does NOT mean that a correction in the Oil price cannot occur and let’s face it that right now that’s all I need i.e. if Oil corrects and I get to BE on AUD/NZD then I’m good (making a profit on the position right now is of little or no consequence to me i.e. I’d STILL be up the 42% at BE on this position which is 8% short of my own personal monthly minimum target and it’s only the 8th today)!!!
Good day all,
Yes, the AUDNZD trade is excatly the type of trade that makes money management all the more important. I lost on this one as well as I took it as a PSAR entry.
Looking back now (hindsight is a wonderful thing), perhaps I could of waited for a lower close to confirm, but really there were signs there of a reversal. As to why the price has gone bananas now, well it has broke the Oct/Nov 07 highs so that could be a reason.
I think we can over analyze sometimes… This was a high probabilty trade that didn’t go our way. we move on. Albiet, with less money in our pockets.
Dale, so are you saying that the RT system works best in “range mode” with pairs that have low adx values? Do you think “trend mode” is even worth using at all? It would be perfect if you could have a system or two for the high adx pairs (like SI and VS) and a system for the lower ones that are stuck in a range (like the RT). If you take a look at usd/cad for the past 6 or 7 weeks it appeared (and still does) to be a great candidate for the RT system… look at that nice tight range from .9995 to 1.0270. It’s funny, I never thought I ever wanted to see a graph like that, but now it’s just another way to make some $$$ 
Hey Boca,
we move on. Albiet, with less money in our pockets.
LOL!!!
I just KNOW how difficult it must have been for you to make THAT statement (copper wire???)!!! That’s why it’s all the more appreciated!!!
Nick ‘my man’:
Looks like you need to go do a bit more reading!!!
The RT System is SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED for trading ranges and the prescence of a range being determined by ADX/ADXR being below 20!!! (Same with the TBP System). (See below for a more ‘in depth’ explanation of the concept).
Concerning the RT System ‘Trend Mode’:
The concept of the RT System is that it can be used in both a ranging or a trending market. The system dictates that you start in ‘Reaction Mode’ (in a range bound market as dictated by ADX/ADXR) and switch to ‘Trend Mode’ if a penetration of HBOP or LBOP occurs. The reason that I believe that this is (possibly???) flawed is because as I posted earlier: HBOP is Pivot Level R3 and LBOP is Pivot Level S3 and Pivot Levels R3 and S3 are EXTREME Pivot Levels ALREADY!!! In other words you’re doing the equivalent of ‘jumping in’ at an ALREADY EXTREME Pivot Level / price. I’d ignore the ‘Trend Mode’ if I were you i.e. rather just use it as a stop if you MUST but NOT as a stop and reverse as dictated by the system. Either that or as I have said before: COUNTER trade the HBOP or LBOP levels (this is what’s working FANTASTICALLY for me anyway)!!!
[QUOTE=randont;47799]Good morning!
Welcome back Akram. How’ve you been? You don’t know me but I know you. Well at least I feel like I do after reading all your posts on “Parabolic Sar thats all”. Good to have you back.
So far all my trades with the reaction trend system have been winners! I’m not used to having so many good trades. Something must be wrong!
Hey Randont,
Well i am so galde that someone knows me here apart from Dale and Boca!!!thanks and yes i am back sitting on a nice profit for the oil right now!!that is why i am asking is the new system was calling for a buy signal for the oil 3 days back or not?
Regards,
Akram
Dale ,
I am not really trying to take some words out of your mouth to take actions based on what u will say coz basicly i can’t do that coz i have to understand the system but what i did based on psar and some other indicators i found the candels look so sexy and reminds me with some old wininng trades i did and here it comes!! going like a rocket to the sky!!! that is why i wanted to know about the system u r following if u got the same signal or not.
and please don’t think that i am here to intrupt u guys i am just trying to keep intouch and trying to have some knowlodge so when i read hopfuly i will understand something!!
Regards,
Akram
You’re right Dale, I need to look into the RT a little more. I skimmed over it between classes today, but I haven’t gone into the full details yet. Seems like it’s working great so far for you. I have an exam on monday so I might not have time this weekend to dig deeper into it, but maybe tomorrow afternoon I’ll have an hour or two free. When you say to counter trade the hbop and lbop, do you mean to “trade the bounce” off of these levels? So when the price hits a hbop to sell the bounce and hope for it to go back into the range? I’ll do a little more reading on it tomorrow hopefully and I’ll post tomorrow.
Hello All,
Yes, Dale, The copper wire thing. Never nice to lose money like that eh. Especially for a scotsman:D . But that’s trading isn’t it.
I agree that I like to use the RT system in markets with low ADX/ADXR values and as pointed out by Nick, USDCAD is a prime example. I have not used this in a trending market.
You know, the last few nights I have been re-reading a bit of the book every night, at the same time trying to finish my candlestick book, and the systems are becoming more and more clear. I’m still not entirely clear about a couple of things though. One is the BOSBOS labelling on the RT system and the other is TISAR on the SI system.
I think this BOSBOS labelling is a little bit hit and miss… Lets say I start with GBPUSD, I take a trade, long or short, depending if b1 or S1 is hit…I follow it through as per the system rules as far as exit and reversing etc… then I have a BOS label for that day… for example… If the B1 is hit, then that was B day and I can follow the system from there… Clear??! I thought not, but feel free to comment. This is how I’ve been using it, and only on low ADX/ADXR pairs.
For the SI… i think i need to re-read the thread where Dale discussed the TISAR and the pipfactor… as my TISAR is either too close, or too far away from the price to be worth using at all…Like I said, I need to be more clear on this TISAR set-up as right now I am very hit & miss with this.
ok doke all
over for now
Hi Akram,
Really is good to se you back onboard… I hope you can read the book and we could do with your insights on here.
I’m not sure about oil,as I haven’t really been following that so closley with any system but let me say this about the book…
Generally, the systems are very detailed and can not really be explained by posts/online etc, so even if Dale or somebody else wanted to, it would be a hell of a task to layout each system on here and then deal with all the questions that would follow.
The other thing, there about 5 or 6 systems detailed in the book, so you have to decide which one/s you would like to try out. Which ones fit your style etc.
But what I like most about that book, is that Wilder explains how to use various systems in certain markets, such as TrendBalancePoint or Reaction Systems in ranging markets, or Swing Index/ Directional Movement in Trending markets.
Some of the ideas and insights in there are incredible… Too think how he must of coped in 1970’s with the technology he had at that time, and you really appreciate how much work and how brilliant he must of been.
I tell you, you will not be disppointed if you get your hands on that book… And you are at the perfect time to read it, as the folks on here can try and help you out if there are things that are not clear.
Cheers
Boca
hI Boca,
thanks alot i know the system is not easy for some one to explan over here so that means i have to read it carfully to understand it more and more.But i got the picture from u now .any ways i will keep on reading whatever u guys will write over here coz i think it is helpful to know how people react with these systems.
Best Regards,
Akram
Good morning!
Boca-I think you’re making the BOS more complicated than it needs to be. From my understanding and its worked very well so far 8 trades taken and all 8 for a profit. You need to take the most significant high or low going from today backward. The following system kinda helped me understand this concept better:
PRICE ACTION SYSTEM
Sell:
- First candlestick makes Higher High
- Second candlestick makes Lower High
- Third candlestick breaks low of 2nd candlestick (candlestick that made Lower High)
- Sell when 3rd candlestick breaks low of 2nd candlestick.
- Take profit is personal choice. I like 50-100 pips. Rest i place trailing stop loss
- Stop loss is 20 pips above candle that make Higher High.
Buy
- First candlestick makes Lower Low
- Second candlestick makes Higher Low
- Third candlestick breaks high of 2nd candlestick (candlestick that made Higher Low)
- Buy when 3rd candlestick breaks high of 2nd candlestick.
- Take profit is personal choice. I like 50-100 pips. Rest i place trailing stop loss
- Stop loss is 20 pips under candle that make Lower Low.
Once you have that you basicly stick with it till you have a LBOP/HBOP or something close to being a LBOP/HBOP. It also helps to reread it, always becomes more and more clear that way. I just look for the nearest large candle to today and start there with my B or S(BOS).
As far as SI goes. I’m right there with ya. I’m hoping that I will “get it” as I trade it more and more.
My RT trades:
EUR/USD 3%gain
USD/CHF still in the trade but it’s green
GBP/USD trade still not triggered
USD/JPY trade still not triggered
Total 5 % gain for the week.
Cheers,
Randon
Randont,
Thanks for the reply. I salute your results as well. You are doing a lot better than me at present.
The system you outlined there is different from the RT system. I’m sorry if I am still confused but are you trading the RT or the system you posted?
What I meant regarding the BOSBOS labelling, is that it is not always obvious what is a high or low significant point, so depending on the user, days may be alloctaed differently.
Best Regards
Boca