Trading Systems in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Welles Wilder

I’m soo pissed! I kept getting an error on Delta so I tried to uninstall. It denied me access saying I’m not the administrator which I am. So I click/drag deleted it in the recycle bin. Now I have to uninstall the program that is no longer on my computer in order to reinstall! :mad: $#%@!!!

P.S. Yeah I contacted Delta, waiting for an Email from the IT department.

Whooa!!! Slow down.

First: what was the error???

Second: download and install a (free) utility called CCleaner (link below) and run it (ensure that ALL the options are ‘ticked’). This will remove the currently invalid entry from your registry which will allow you to re-install the software. I’ve used this utility for years now (on my and my clients workstations) and I assure you it’s virus and spyware free.

CCleaner - Home

By the way: more and more often I’m finding that my clients are having trouble when installing the latest version of Delta Trading and then my indicators. The problem that keeps recurring is the fact that they either get errors on the charts OR cannot see the charts at all. The fix for this is to ENSURE that you have used Microsoft Windows Update to update your Windows Operating System. Do not use the ‘Express’ update option but rather use the ‘Custom’ update option and then select ‘Recommended Updates’ and MAKE SURE that ALL updates that relate to the Microsoft Windows .NET Framework (for ALL VERSIONS) are selected and installed. DON’T bother downloading the Microsoft .NET Framework installation software from Delta’s website i.e. it does NOT fix the problem.

Ok, I ran CCleaner, did the windows update. Did it a few more times to make sure I got everything. Made sure I checked all the boxes on CCleaner. And STILL got the error. The box poped up saying “Fatal Error : Installation ended prematurely because of an error” and thats it, no more info on the error.

Hmmmm…

Sorry I can’t help you there then. The only other suggestion that I can make is to uninstall the system YET AGAIN, THEN go and delete the '\Program Files\Deltastock folder MANUALLY, THEN run CCleaner (your workstation should at least be a bit quicker now anyway), download the software from Deltastock AGAIN and then reinstall and see what happens. If that does not work then let’s hope Delta themselves has an answer for you!!! (You could also try downloading the earlier version of the software from their site to see if you have the same problem).

The problem isn’t with the program itself. I can’t install it is the problem. Since you have to uninstall before you can reinstall, I’m kinda screwed. It isn’t on my computer. Which sucks cause I was planning on spending all day going over charts and setups. I’m gonna just make a bunch of data discs for all the stuff I’ve got down loaded on here and then reinstall windows.

P.S. what screwed me is that I manually deleted it.

I have ordered the book. Ill have it on Wed. I am looking forward to it.

Dale, when you are talking about trading the SI with stops (instead of stop and reverses) I think I understand but I just want to make sure.

First you have to figure out how many pips= one point change in the ASI. I did this by finding the difference between the close on friday and the close on thursday, and then finding the difference in ASI values.

So, close on friday for eur/jpy= 159.24 close on thurs= 159.83
159.83-159.24= 59 pips

ASI on friday= 40 ASI on thursday= 54
54-40= 14

So 59/14= 4.214 This means for every 4.214 pips change, eur/jpy’s ASI goes up or down by one point, seem correct so far? So if I am going 60 points against my most favorable ASI (which was friday) then I take the close on friday and add to this 60*4.214 and get my stop. This makes sense to me, but instead of using the close to calculate the stop from, should I use the high or low of the day?

As you might of guessed (or seen from the markets today) my three SI trades (gbp/jpy, eur/jpy, chf/jpy all short) are now all in the red, but the ASI for today will not go 60 points against for any of them, so that means I am still going to be in the trades. I hope the big gains against the JPY were just corrections and that the downtrends will resume…

Also, I think I am ready to switch over to Delta, but I had a few questions about them…

Is the minimum balance still $500 for a mini forex account? 200:1 leverage?

Also, what is the smallest lot size you can buy with a mini account? The one thing I like about Oanda is that you can buy any amount (3000, 5000, 7500, etc.) of a pair and seeing how if I only open an account with $500 and I have to trade mini lots (10,000) I will never be able to have more than one or two trades open based on the money management strategies.

Hi Nick,

You’ve got what I was saying exactly. Only thing is: I’m not sure WHICH price you would use (I would hazard an educated guess and say it would be the closing price). When I did this I actually sat here and wrote down the price and then the corresponding ASI value and did this a couple of times for for a couple of changes in price until I had enough points of reference to work out the equivalent ASI change per point / pip movement (Obviously I was able to do this because my ASI updates in realtime). Put it this way: you’ve got the concept and if you DO find a mathematical way to do this that checks out then please let us all know how you did it!!! You need to get the exact price at which the ASI will have ‘gone back on itself’ by 60 points and that’s your stop. In other words: the MOMENT that price is hit the position is closed and you TP.

Regarding Delta:

Correct: $500 minimum (well it’s actually $100 minimum but then you’re really wasting your time and after the admin charges and loss on exchange rates if any when depositing and postage and stuff like that you’re probably better off demo trading). Also: YOU set the lot size anything from 1 000 units per lot upward in increments of 1 000 (there is no maximum lot size (unless you trade using L2) or account size at all i.e. I only found this out today). So a ‘mini’ or ‘micro’ lot I would imagine is the equivalent of 1 000 units i.e. that’s the smallest lot size possible. Leverage is 200:1 (0.5% margin) by default and I personally would recommend this but only because my money management rules have been adjusted or ‘fine tuned’ for 200:1 leverage and they work well. Using my money managment rules would allow you anything from eight to twelve lots open at any one time depending on the exchange rates i.e. the margin cost of one lot of 1 000 units of GBP/??? is obviously greater than the margin cost of one lot of 1 000 units of USD/???.

Hi
Im confused about the parabolic time/price system with ADX.

When should i enter a trade?

Shoud the ADX and DI+ have to be above 20 at the time when the parabolic sar changes direction (for long) or can i take a trade when ADX/DI+ eventually reaches 20-25? (psar showing long for a while)?

When should i close a trade?.

When the parabolic sar changes direction or when the DI+/DI- cross over?

Just wondering - do you use any filters on top of these indicators? (just curious)

Thankyou

Hello,

OK: first and foremost Parabolic SAR is a trend following indicator. If ADX/ADXR is greater than 20 to 25 then the instrument has directional movement and COULD be deemed as trending. Therefore your assumption is pretty much correct i.e. you enter when you get the first Parabolic SAR signal (dot) AND ADX/ADXR is greater than 20 to 25 AND ABOVE +DI and -DI. As you SHOULD already know Wilder says that you can use ADX as a filter i.e. if +DI has crossed above -DI then only take long trades and if +DI has crossed below -DI then only take short trades. Wilder ALSO says that the moment that ADX drops below +DI AND -DI then it’s time to stop trading a trend following system. What I conclude from this is the following: EVEN IF you’re in a ‘valid’ Parabolic Time/Price System Trade the time to exit is when ADX/ADXR drops below 20 and / or ADX drops below +DI AND -DI EVEN IF your Parabolic Time/Price System trade APPEARS to have ‘more to go’ and this I think is where a lot of people make a mistake (myself included especially last year) i.e. even although with the Parabolic Time/Price System you’re supposed to ‘stay in’ until you get a signal to stop and reverse there is little point in doing this if ADX/ADXR drops below 20 and / or ADX drops below BOTH +DI and -DI because the moment the instrument starts trading in a range i.e. ADX/ADXR is below 20 and / or ADX has dropped below +DI AND -DI then the trade is not going to go anywhere and, what’s more, there is an even greater likelihood that the previous trend is going to reverse and this is where a lot of money is lost with the Parabolic Time/Price System. Also: I would not use a crossing of +DI and -DI to exit a Parabolic Time/Price System trade IF I WAS ALREADY IN a trade. The reason I say this is because you’re now talking about the DMI System and if you read nicely Wilder actually says to NOT stop and reverse EVEN IF the indexes stay contrary to your position (the ‘extreme point rule’). In other words: I’d be more likely to exit a Parabolic Time/Price System trade if the price penetrates the ‘extreme point’ than I would be to exit a Parabolic Time/Price System trade because +DI and -DI have crossed again.

Look: every day more and more I’m finding that a certain amount of ‘judgement’ IS in fact required as to when to TP (with ALL of these systems). As I’ve mentioned before: ‘the profits are in the exits’. I mean think about it: if your margin cost for a position is $100 and the position is now showing a $500 profit then that’s ‘extreme’ and the chances are that it’s NOT going to get any better!!! TP and move on to another (good) trade. I’ve found that since I been trading these systems I’m finding is ‘easier’ to TP. Now as strange as that may sound I’ve figured this: BECAUSE you have LOADS of entry signals you’re not quite as inclined to ‘hold on’ to a trade ‘until death’ because you know that you have LOADS of other entries / trades available to you. While this is NOT following the system ‘to the letter’ I know (at least not when it comes to taking profit) it IS nevertheless profitable (whether or not MORE so if you followed each trade through I know not. Just always bear in mind that sometimes there IS a loss on a stop and reverse). As I have ALSO said before (seems like our ‘nobody reads the entire thread’ ‘phenomenon’ is ‘creeping back in’ the longer the thread gets AGAIN): you WILL find conflicting information in ‘the book’ e.g. the Parabolic Time/Price System is an ‘always in’ system i.e. ‘stay in no matter what until you get a signal to stop and reverse’ AND it’s a trend following system BUT in the section on ADX you’re told to STOP trading a trend following system when ADX drops below BOTH +DI and -DI. See what I mean??? A little bit of thought IS (unfortuantely) required!!!

As far as additional filters are concerned MACD ‘appears’ to be ‘favourite’ with this system (if you want to know more about filters that have been tried with this system then please refer to this thread: 301 Moved Permanently).

Please note: to anyone following this thread and is not working from / with ‘the book’: this is NOT going to become a discussion on Parabolic SAR. Please refer to the thread noted above. To be honest: I doubt very much that there is ANYTHING ELSE that could be discussed about Parabolic SAR or the Parabolic Time/Price System that has NOT already been discussed in the thread noted above. If you come up with ‘something new’ then feel free to post but DO NOT post UNTIL you’ve read the thread noted above because I KNOW what’s in that thread and if you post something on this thread asking a question that I KNOW has already been asked AND ANSWERED on the thread noted above I WILL track your IP address and hunt you down and subject you to the most EXCRUTIATING PAIN JUST before I kill you!!!

(And NO: I’m NOT in a good mood today!!! I’m tired and AUD/NZD is feeding me ‘bucket loads’ of ‘patience and restraint’)!!!

Hey Dale, sent you a PM about delta… I’m about ready to switch over but I had a few questions.

Dale, do you only trade the systems on a dialy time frame? - since everything in the book is shown in daily time frame

Good morning all!

I’m back. Ended up just reinstalling windows. I was due for a little maintenance anyway. I’m just glad It happened now and not when I’ve got $$ on the line.

I lost all my charts, stupid disk didn’t work that I copied them too. But I’ve recreated them and am just getting back into things.

Dale, I been trying to find your post where you explain how you calculate the Trailing Sar. To save me the head ache could you show the calculation again?
Also Since I’m going off charts atm I was wondering if you would recommend staying away from certain pairs, only trading certain pairs, or should I just look at all 44 still? I’m getting better with Excel so I can usually do a chart in about 5-10 min now.

Going on Vacation this weekend but I’ll bring my computer and work on charts/trades a few hours a day. I can’t stay away for a half a trading week :smiley: .

P.S. Learn from my mistake. If you’re uninstalling Deltastock don’t do so manually. Make sure you use the uninstall feature and THEN reinstall.

Hi folks,

balaji3003:

Yup: only the daily timeframes AGAIN!!! (I say ‘AGAIN’ because I’ve tested and ‘raved about’ the shorter timeframes and the like from time to time but I always come back to the daily timeframe in the end). With ALL of Wilder’s trading systems (as with most) the DAILY close is ALL important (although I WILL admit that this DOES apply more to stocks than forex). Also (to state the obvious): far less ‘whipsaws’ with any of the systems on the daily timeframe.

Randon:

Well done!!! Proud of ya’!!!

Trailing Index SAR for forex (summary as requested):

Calculate the ASI EXACTLY as per the book. Each pair though will have a ‘Quote Price Factor’ or ‘QPF’.

I calculate the QPF as follows (based on the spread):

Let’s say the spread is 3 pips or 0.0003 (EUR/USD) then the QPF is 0.0001.
Let’s say the spread is 500 pips or 0.0500 (GBP/ZAR) then the QPF if 0.0100.
Let’ say the spread is 15 pips or 0.0015 (AUD/NZD) the QPF is 0.0010.

(I hope you can see the ‘correlation’ between the spread and the QPF i.e. for want of a better explanation it’s the first ‘significant’ digit of the spread that’s being used and the QPF is always a ‘1’).

NOW: you divide the ASI that you’ve calculated as per ‘normal’ by the QPF. The Trailing Index SAR is then plus or minus 60 to or from the result.

That’s it.

I had the book for two days now and haven’t read it yet. Ill read it today for sure :slight_smile:

I like how it is nice a big, makes the ch arts a lot better. Best charts I have seen in any book…

Hello,

Congratulations!!! Enjoy!!! Depending on your level of experience and expertise though it MAY take a little bit more than ‘one read’. Also: I find that even now, when I have the need to refer to ‘the book’ for something or the other, I’ll pick up something new or it will ‘spark’ some or the other new idea. As I told you: we’re all here to help if you’ve done the ‘preliminary legwork’. Welcome aboard and may this journey be as successful for you as it has been for me thus far!!! (By the way: how’s those charts??? Is that dedication or what??? I wonder just how many of us would have stuck it out this far if we had to draw charts by hand and only got weekly updates every Monday morning)!!!

To everyone else:

Looks like I’m going to get a ‘reprieve’ on AUD/NZD at last. If I breakeven (or make a profit) I’m not sure if I’ll ‘deserve a medal’ for holding out or if I ALREADY deserve a ‘kick in the ar*e’ for for not stopping and reversing as per the SI System when I should have!!! (I suspect it’s the latter)!!!

Oy!!!

What’s up with the market???

New Zealand released ‘shockingly good news’ early this morning and AUD/NZD STILL continues it’s ‘route march’ up. Figures coming out of the USA are WAY better than expected and yet the USD is weakening!!! If THAT is not enough the NZD is gaining against the USD!!! Gold and Oil continue to rise!!! Even the Dow is taking a bit of a light ‘spanking’!!!

(These things are behaving as ‘irrational’ and as ‘erratic’ as I will be behaving later today i.e. I missed my Thursday night ‘drinking spree’ so I’m ‘climbing in tonght’ i.e. I’m running out of week)!!!

Dale,
How long do you trade per day?

If you trade the daily, where the charts get a new bar once every day (at a certain time) - do you only trade a few hrs a day? - i mean place new trades and update/close existing ones as soon as the new bar appears & leave the computer and forget everything till the next day?

BAD (Saturday) morning all!!!

WOW: I’m definitely getting too old drink!!!

balaji3003:

I trade practically ALL day EVERY day (and if I can stay awake ALL night EVERY night)!!!

Seriously:

I’d put it to you like this:

I would say that my ‘main’ trades i.e. ‘proper system trades’ i.e. trades based purely on the PTPS, the VS, the RTS, the DMS, and the SIS, are set up and / or maintained at 00h00 (midnight). Those trades take me about an hour, hour and a half, to set up and / or maintain i.e. I have to go through each instrument / pair and note the ADX and ADXR values and then update a spreasheet that I use to track these values and then ‘choose’ my new trades from there and, as previosly stated, maintain my existing open trades. After getting a bit of sleep then I’ll sit here during the day and take some ‘opportunistic trades’ mainly based on the RTS or my ‘pivot version’ thereof and I get quite a few of these each day i.e. they’re normally not open for longer than a few hours before their TP target is hit.

Hokay:

EVEN with my SPECTACULAR hangover the ‘creative juices’ are STILL able to flow!!!

YET AGAIN I propose YET ANOTHER two levels to be added to the RTS.

Why?

Because seeing that we’ve all pretty much agreed that stopping and reversing at HBOP or LBOP is NOT a good idea and we’ve also pretty much agreed to SELL at HBOP and BUY at LBOP if theyre hit we DO need SOME sort of stop wouldn’t you agree i.e. if the instrument / pair does IN FACT start trending after penetrating either HBOP or LBOP (I’ve not seem it happen YET but there is always a first time and you HAVE to have a way of saying ‘enough’ and get out).

SO:

The new levels I am calling HSTOP and LSTOP and here are their respective formulae:

HSTOP = ( 3 * ( ( H + L + C ) / 3 ) ) - ( 3 * L ) + H
LSTOP = ( 3 * ( ( H + L + C ) / 3 ) ) - ( 3 * H ) + L

In other words:

If you’ve bought or sold at ANY ONE of the RTS levels (whether you’ve waited for a penetration of the levels and used a stop order or just placed a limit order at the close is irrelevant and up to you) then these new levels can be used for your stop loss values. Chances of these levels / stop loss values getting hit are ‘slim’ at best but they’re there JUST IN CASE!!! (By the way: these new levels i.e. HSTOP and LSTOP are equivalent to Pivot Points / Levels R4 and S4 respectively).

I can tell you THIS much:

Using the RTS with my new S2 and B2 levels mentioned previously has enabled me to ALMOST be able to take a huge ‘knock’ on AUD/NZD and STILL be on target for the month so if I DON’T have to take a ‘knock’ of AUD/NZD at any point then I’m doing FANTASTICALLY!!!

Oh and lastly (by the way):

SO MUCH for Stochastics!!! Take a good long HARD look at AUD/NZD!!! Stochastics has been in overbought territory since the very START of the long uptrend!!! Go as far back as you like and look and see and you’ll find EXACTLY the same thing when the pair has been trending either up OR down!!! (Funny enough someone on this very website actually made a good point at some time back: BUY when Stochastics are in overbought territory and SELL when Stochastics are in oversold territory and you’ll probably stand a better chance of making a profit. At the time of my reading his post I thought he was ‘daft’ but go figure)!!! (I can’t remember who the member was at this time).

Anyway: NEEDLESS to say ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING NOT ‘Wilder’ or a ‘derivation’ thereof is now PERMANENTLY ‘banned’ from MY charts!!!