I note that I appear to be the only person awake and working this morning!!!
I see that AUD/USD is up today. Possible SIS entry to go long coming up??? Enter with SIS and track with VSTOPS???
That’s a good one Dale.
Ok, thanks a lot for your posts and the latest batch of indicators. I like the adition of this VHF indicator and can see where it has merit. I had notoced before that just by looking at the candle chart I can visually see the range and have been tempted to ignore the number that ADX/ADXR is telling me. However, I think we all like a definitive number to tell us if we are trending or ranging one way or another.
Another thing that I like to do is check the angle or slope of the LRC and tend to shy away from pairs where the LRC is at a steep angle. Comments?
I know I discussed with Dale before about taking a RT entry then that pair breaks out of the range and effectively landing me in the sh*t. Well, that has happened with AUD/JPY last week where I am still long and looing for it to hit S1. Even if it does, I will take a loss on this trade.
I have added the new ADX_smoothed to the charts now. I have a question though… Is this the one that is decribed in the book by wilder? Which one should be used, in your opinion? I see now that the ADX values are a lot lower than when using the previous ADX indicator. I really think we need to get this right if we are going to use it for the DMS and for determining a trending or ranging market.
Thanks to all who have posted their monthly reports. I wish you all, and myself, the best of luck for the month ahead. I really realy hope that we can all reach the levels that we aim for. Keep the faith.
Best Regards
Boca
Ok all, one more thing.
Dale just posted his " the way he works etc" in his last few posts and this lead me to an idea I’d been thinking about for a while.
I think I am going to post the way that I trade the RTS on the thread and put it out there for open comment. The reason that I am doing this is that I think we can say that all of us are trading modified versions of the systems in the book so I think it would be good for us all to pick and take ideas off one another and see what each other are doing.
I shall post the method I use for RTS later today… Feel free to shoot me down:D, but in all honesty, I am open to any suggestions or comments that you all may have.
Cheers
Boca
Y’ello!!!
Nice to see you around!!!
Go for it!!! That’s the purpose of the thread!!!
I’ve decided to post these ‘inane’ posts though to demonstrate what I take into account on a daily basis (all day). In other words: it’s a ‘big picture’ I’m trying to take into account and I’m using as many resources as are available to me to do this.
Removed orders for USD/TRY and GBP/NOK and GBP/BGN.
Moves down at present have too much strength behind them so I’d rather try to get them at a better price i.e. a lower RTS level later today or tomorrow.
Stocks still tumbling so now looking to buy Wachovia (WB) and Keycorp (KEY) at their next lowest Fibonacci level. Have bought Washington Mutual (WM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) at market. Will track all of these trades (entered at market and / or those ‘on order’) with the VSTOPS once again from the date of entry. Motorola and Cigna Corp (bought last week) now in good profits (Motorola over 100% of cost of position).
It seems that the thread is getting new wind under the wings, great! I today opened all the VS positions I selected yesterday except USD/SEK, which seemed to have too strong resistance. In addition, the limit of one of the RTS trades (GBP/USD) has been hit - and that trade seems to be going against me quickly right now.
Yes, ADX_smoothed does the calculations in the Wilder way. We haven’t been able to define unambiguously, which one of them is better. When I did some backtesting a while ago, it seemed that the unsmoothed one gave better results for most of the pairs, but then there were also pairs for which the smoothed one was better. When I have been putting the pairs in order, I’ve been using the unsmoothed one only, because it has seemed to me that those values are much more comparable. I don’t have any harder evidence for that, it’s just a hunch.
Dale:
You’ll notice that IN NO INSTANCE will I just buy or sell on a ‘whim’. I’m looking at all the ‘outside factors’ (fundamentals???) that may influence my trading BUT I’ll only place orders or take trades based on our trading systems with those ‘outside factors’ as a ‘GUIDE to direction’.
Not a surprise, but this is now much more clearer. This may be one missing link that separates good trading from bad. I wonder how much impact this will have on my trades, as I’m working at office hours, and when making trading decisions, among others placing RTS limit orders, I have only a limited amount of fundamental information available. Whatever happens during the day may then turn the trades against me. I hope that these systems are stronger than the fundamentals, otherwise I may be in trouble.
J.
Motorola hit the TP I’d set (and then continued on rallying WAY UP)!!! Just one of those things. Will now have to wait for the (inevitable) retractment before buying again. Also TP on UAL.
Removed orders for GBP/NOK and GBP/BGN as previously stated. Good call. Will get at a better price later tonight or tomorrow. If not: to bad.
Probably missed additional buy on USD/RUB and USD/TRY now so will just have to be satisfied with current potential profit. Watching for move to the downside tomorrow IF the Fed does not hike rates.
???/ZAR pairs still on the ‘radar’.
Got an idea: how about combining the following with TBPS? I.e., select only those TBPS trades for which the mentioned entry criteria hold, but set TP and SL as by TBPS.
I was able to find the following trades for today:
GBP/CAD Short (still open)
EUR/CAD Short (SL)
EUR/CHF Short (still open)
CAD/CHF Long (SL, initially AC almost 0)
CHF/BGN Long (still open)
Well, doesn’t show too good…
Good (Tuesday) morning!!!
kaalilaatikko:
Not sure why or what you’re saying about my VSTOPS/AC ‘system’??? Anyway: as soon as a find a trade based on this that ‘tickles my fancy’ I’ll let you know, take it, and show you what I mean. In the meantime: feel free to give me an example of WHY you say (I ASSUME that you’re saying) it’s ‘not good’!!!
Anyway: on with the next trading day.
Been through the usual routine of visiting websites, checking open positions, checking for potential trades today, etc. etc. etc. I note that the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, FTSE, and DAX Futures are up indicating a higher open initially. Asia and Australia are down at the moment and will probably close there shortly. Not down by much though. The markets will probably be a little quiet today in anticipation of the Fed rate meeting later today. I note that Oil, Gold, and Silver are down right now. MOST commodities are down today. And ALL this before my first cup of coffee!!!
Hello again,
Further to my previous post regarding my VS/VSTOPS/AC ‘system’:
Watch these pairs for now (I’ll post more as I find them):
GBP/ZAR
EUR/ZAR
USD/ZAR
AC has turned green today below the zero line. You MUST wait for the close, however, to ENSURE that AC ‘closed green’. If so: place an order ‘a couple of ticks’ above the high of today’s bar. If the order gets executed tomorrow then use the VS/VSTOPS ‘looking to go short’ using tomorrow’s date.
Don’t get me wrong:
This is not for the ‘feinthearted’ or ‘undercapitalised’ or ‘impatient’ but it is profitable.
Oh,
I forgot to post this:
This is just a word of advice:
DO NOT get ‘caught up’ with TOO much analysis or TOO many indicators.
I find now (today) that I’m starting to get TOO ‘caught up’ with trying different things and they’re interfering with my concentration.
‘Draw the line’ somewhere and JUST TRADE.
I’m not trying to stifle creativity here by any means BUT I DO KNOW from past and bitter experience that this can do more harm than good.
Right now I’m finding myself leaning toward using ONLY the following systems (in order of preference):
VS/VSTOPS.
SIS.
RTS (using the ‘VHFDeltaModified’ indicator for confirmation).
AC for confirmations (depending on my ‘mood’).
That’s it.
You’ll note that the DMS is now missing from this list. The main reason is that I’m no longer ‘comfortable’ (at this point in time anyway) with either the ‘smoothed’ OR the ‘unsmoothed’ ADX/ADXR. The TBPS has never really ‘featured’ with me so I need say no more about it right now. Parabolic SAR does not ‘suit my personality’ so that’s the reason it gets no mention here either.
You read the wording correctly, but sorry if I caused misleading interpretation. I was talking about my idea of combining your system with TBPS, and the results for that were not very promising based on that small sample, 40% SLs, no TPs so far, while TBPS should yield only 20% losses to be profitable. Actually those 2 losses were caused by relatively drastic price changes, so that may also distort the result.
So I am not suspecting this system at all in the original form you suggested. On the contrary, I hope to get benefit from it.
Though I’m not using TBPS right now, I’ve not lost hope in finding an ingredient that would elevate its value enough to be usable. The reason is the clearness of its TP/SL rules, which I think would suit my daily routines perfectly.
I added this AC check to my earlier implemented TBPS dump, and for today morning (with my shifted daily candles) the list contained only EUR/CHF after dropping off a couple of other news-victim-candidate or otherwise trending pairs. (And I’m also ignoring those exotic pairs that do not trade the full day, as I cannot place the orders when their market open.) That trade still open.
I today got my first signal for SIS (GBP/CHF), but my stop order hasn’t executed. I think here could be another small step to success I’ve (hopefully) learned from this thread: using stop and limit orders correctly instead of market orders. I think that a while ago I might have placed a market order here after seeing the signal, but the price has now started going against the signal.
Other actions today for me: I have now 7 positions open, of which 3 are on profit, 2 at BE and 2 at loss (one of which I shouldn’t have opened at all in the first place). I have never seen my trades open this well. Compared to yesterday its only 1% profit (with tightened MM), but the direction is right. I managed to do my morning routines in one hour, including collecting the data and signals for all of the systems (VS, RTS, SIS, DMS, TBPS/AC + CSI/ADX rank), checking some news, checking open trades, selecting the new trades and placing the orders. I would be very happy if all days would be like this one.
J.
You mean my new system where I won’t trade unless I get same directional order from RTS, SIS, DMS and VS simultaneously won’t work? Have to admit that’d be one heckuva trade 
I’ve looked at SIS again, and I’m seeing that there are many times that a SIS entry goes in step with a DMS entry. Need to do further corroboration, but it appears to me so far that when these two hit at same time, it appears to be a high probability of going your way. Will try to look at it further in next few days and see if I can make any correlation to that.
Have a look at the attached picture as well!!! I took a snapshot of GBP/ZAR only, but all of these 3 pairs look the same right now with respect to these indicators:
Both smoothed and unsmoothed ADX are above 30 and rising. +DI and -DI have a huge gap but now turning to close the gap in favor of a long trade.
RSI has been very low, but started heading up, leaving the oversold area. I read this an early signal for buying.
Then the AC.
And finally, ASI is about to cross contrary the trailing index SAR.
VHF is not included in the picture, but it is favourable as well.
I have never before seen this kind of a bunch of indicators shouting BUY at the same time! I’ll wait for the close, and if these still hold, the only question is how much is “a couple of ticks” for these pairs.
J.
GBPZAR050808.bmp (130 KB)
Hello,
Well:
You’ve all heard the saying: ‘Many a true word spoken in jest’???
This is just a word of advice:
DO NOT get ‘caught up’ with TOO much analysis or TOO many indicators.
I find now (today) that I’m starting to get TOO ‘caught up’ with trying different things and they’re interfering with my concentration.
AUD/NZD gave a SIS signal to go short a few days ago and GUESS WHAT??? I MISSED IT!!! The darn thing has dropped in the region of 200 pips or so since that signal which would have got my position to at LEAST break even by this time RIGHT NOW!!!
Two lessons here:
[I]1 - DO NOT get ‘caught up’ with TOO much analysis or TOO many indicators.[/I]
2 - Although it WAS VERY tempting to just ‘jump in short’ but I did not and in SPITE of the fact that I (and a few of my clients when they read this) would LOVE to give me a ‘hefty kick in the ba*ls’ I did not just ‘jump in short’ which is the RIGHT AND ONLY WAY!!! Yes: I MAY have to wait for another turn up and only THEN short the position again but SO BE IT!!!
Regarding the ???/ZAR pairs and the ‘confluence’ of all the indicators:
Again:
[I]DO NOT get ‘caught up’ with TOO much analysis or TOO many indicators.[/I]
This is EXACTLY what happened with AUD/NZD in the first place!!! I’m not saying that you’re NOT right. All I’m saying is that it’s DEFINITELY NO guarantee. When I first shorted AUD/NZD (on the 2 MAY 2008 let us NOT forget) it did not matter WHAT indicator I ‘threw’ at the chart (and believe me I ‘threw the lot’ at it at the time) there was NOTHING but NOTHING telling to me NOT go short the pair OTHER THAN THE SIS and the VS/VSTOPS. JUST BE CAREFUL is all I’m saying.
You need to try to look at the ‘big picture’ as well (although this MAY sound contradictory to my statement above but it’s different from being ‘caught up’ in the ‘mechanics’ of trading): Gold has gone down considerably and I ‘perceive’ a triple bottom forming on the Gold chart. What this could VERY possibly mean is that Gold may break from Oil (Gold and Oil sometimes have a positive correlation and sometimes not) and turn. That could very well send ALL the AUD/??? pairs ‘into orbit’. Also: the down move on all the AUD/??? pairs right now has been ‘real strong’ and normally when that happens there is at least SOME sort of short term correction (at very least) or a total change of direction in the trend.
Edit:
Sorry:
I forgot to add that my ‘couple of ticks above or below the high or the low’ on the ???/ZAR pairs is 0.5x the spread (input into the TrailingIndexSAROrder indicator).
Everyone, take note as of the writing on this the AO for USD/ZAR and EURZAR is still green, but the GBPZAR is now red again. So make sure you do your own due diligence prior to placing any entries for this evening.
Edit: Whoops, I was looking at AO instead of AC. AC is green for all these, so its all systems go for long ???/ZAR. Best of luck.
I have been wrestling with myself a couple of hours now whether I should TP the two AUD/* positions I have open by VS when there is a turn to be anticipated. I opened these positions before the latest news that kicked AUD, and there is no signal telling me to close them now. VSTOP is still below BE. And I remembered that I’ve been doing the same hesitation just a few days ago when staring at the price of one pair sinking against me, and my intelligent correction movements were not that intelligent after all.
My conclusion: VS has been told to be one of those systems that should be in long term mostly immune to news etc. temporary changes, so I decided not to be too jumpy, and will keep my positions right now. I’ve been jumpy before, and it has never meant nothing but harm. Besides, this is the first time news has been in my favour. As a side effect, I feel that this thinking is giving me extra calmness here.
About */ZAR: I view the message of the indicators like this:
- The pairs are trending.
- It is possible that there is a signal for VSTOPS/AC or SIS or both for them tomorrow.
I also looked at gold and latest news. Oil is speculated in being a longer downtrend now. I don’t have the talent to make water-tight conclusions from all this, but I’m now inclining in opening one or two of the ZAR trades tomorrow, provided that the signals are there.
J.
J - I believe it was a Kenny Rogers song that says “You’ve got to know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em, know when to walk away and know when to run.”
So while I’m sure that doesn’t help you at all, it is a bit of useless trivia that someone (probably Dale) will enjoy.
As for your dilemma, I had similar positions and I have closed mine out for over 3% gain each. While I know VS didn’t say “fold’em”, I’m not sure I have the patience nor the guts to hold onto them.
My personal advice to you is “pick a profit target you’re comfortable with, and if you’ve exceeded that set a SL and let it run from there.” I’m personally of the opinion that locking in a decent profit (6% between two positions in two days) is better than kicking yourself later on. Of course I’d probably label myself a little on the conservative side when it comes to trading, risk, etc. So the challenge is the answer is different for everyone, so you have to find what fits your “trading style”.
While this doesn’t answer your question directly, it shows you a little bit of my “trading style”, which hopefully can help you form yours.
Best of luck in whatever you decide.
Craig
Good (Wednesday) morning everyone!!!
And: what goes up must come down (and what goes DOWN must come up)!!!
After yesterday’s Fed interest rate decision (or LACK thereof) the NYSE rallied ‘like nobody’s business’. So did the USD. Now strange as this may seem i.e. it should NOT have rallied unless there was in fact a rate hike BUT what has not been touched on in any of these forums is this: 99% of the time the rate hike (or not) is already priced in by the time of the meeting. What IS important is the ‘rhetoric’ that follows. After the rate meetings you will always find that minutes of the meetings are made public and it is from these minutes that traders can see just how many of the parties involved were ‘for’ the decision and just how many were ‘against’ the decision. This gives traders insight as to what will happen at the NEXT meeting and the moves in the currency are largely based on THIS information as opposed to the actual decision (which as I’ve said is normally always already priced in). For THIS reason: stocks rallied yesterday (low interest rates / stocks up) and the USD did as well FOR A TIME. However: the Fed has signalled (from the minutes) that it is in no particular hurry to hike rates any time soon so look at the USD this morning!!! Back to square one!!! (As you ALL know though: I’d STILL NEVER short the USD)!!!
Something else VERY interesting:
Anyone notice how AUD/NZD stopped about 5 pips from closing below the VS SAR??? Anyone notice how TODAY it’s turned and going up again??? Anyone notice how Gold has turned and is on it’s way up today??? THIS my 'dear friend’s is WHY you NEVER just ‘jump in’ when things ‘look like’ they’re going your way!!! (I’m not trying to give myself a ‘pat on the back’ here: I’m doing my best to re-iterate certain points that I believe contribute to failure). Of course: ALL of these things could turn AGAIN today OR NOT. They of course need to be watched but no matter WHAT happens: you only act on signals from the systems. And EVEN IF you’re a TOTAL IDIOT and miss some very important signals it does not matter. YOU WAIT!!!
As far as taking profit early when not signalled to do so is concerned:
I have to tell you that I do it as well for better or for worse. I did it yesterday on stocks and of course could have kicked myself during the rally!!! OK: admittedly I’m taking profit and closing positions early because I’d like to transfer my personal account balance to my main trading account as you all know so this IS the main reason for doing this. Would I have held on to those positions until signalled to TP by the VSTOPS??? Well I probably would have held on longer but still taken profit on most of them. Why? Because you have to understand this: ‘the market’ does not have a will of it’s own. Prices go up and down BECAUSE of people like you and me. In other words: behind every trade their is a ‘human factor’. People tend to forget that behind even the BIGGEST of trades (made by the likes of the Morgan Stanley traders for example) there is a human behind that trade. So: what trader is NOT going to take profit when the profit ‘on the table’ is ‘stellar’??? What trader is NOT going to take ‘decent’ profit, then sit back and wait for the pullback (which ALWAYS comes eventually), and then get in again for more profit??? Do you see where I’m going with this??? And THIS my dear friends is the reason why prices don’t just keep going in one direction or another ‘forever and a day’. THIS is the REASON we have prices going up and down on a daily basis. So what am I saying here??? ‘Profit is profit’ and by taking a ‘decent’ profit when it’s there for the taking even when not signalled to do so by the systems is nothing to be frowned upon. I’ve noted this before (and again it’s not a DIRECT quote but it DOES go something along these lines): ‘Entries are a dime-a-dozen but profits are in the exits’. (A ‘rough’ quote from John F. Carter). Of couse today I’m HAPPY with the profits that I took yesterday EVEN ALTHOUGH they were taken early. It means the account is ‘up’ 4% so far for the month (4% in three trading days). It means that any new trades I make are based on a bigger account balance and therefore the lot sizes and potential profits of any new trades are greater. It means that I can now wait for a retraction, buy the same stocks again at a better price, and make another 4% in three trading days. GET THE PICTURE???
I know that the above is a very difficult concept to grasp. When do you ‘get out’??? There is NO definitive answer but I do believe that you will eventually get a ‘feel’ for this. And I DO KNOW: if you read all of my posts you may feel like you’re being ‘pulled in one direction’ and then ‘pulled in another direction’. Sometimes I’m saying ‘stick to the systems no matter what’ and other times I’m saying (for example) ‘ignore the systems and take profit early’. The point is this: there IS no ‘magic buller’ or ‘hard and fast answer’ or ‘rule carved on stone’. You have to adapt with the market and do what the market wants you to do at the time. Sometimes: holding on will put you in good stead. Sometimes NOT holding on will accomplish more. And if you read some of my very early posts on this thread you’ll see that although at the time I was saying that you ‘just have to follow these systems blindy’ and ignore everything else around you it is only since I started posting these messages this month (the idea being to give you insight into what I do all day and how I realise my gains) that I have realised JUST HOW FAR OFF that advice is i.e. only NOW have I MYSELF started to realise JUST HOW MUCH I ACTUALLY DO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT on a daily (even hourly) basis to confirm my trades. All I can say to you is this: HANG IN THERE. It’s a VERY difficult business to master but if you stick at it long enough: ‘all the pennies will eventually drop’ (pennies STILL drop on a daily basis for me and I imagine will STILL be dropping right up until the time I’m ‘pushing daisies’) so do not get discouraged. Remember that you are trying to ‘pick up on’ and learn to trade and make money in one of the most difficult professions in the world and you’re competing against other traders who were BORN into this business (and EVEN THEY after a LIFETIME of trading STILL MAKE BIG MISTAKES)!!!
Now:
As of typing this post I see nothing that ‘catches my fancy’ as far as entries go but will continue to post as and when something actually DOES ‘catch my fancy’. Let it be noted that I DO have long orders placed for all the ???/ZAR pairs so if they’re executed we’re all in together.
‘In’ EUR/ZAR. Using the VSTOPS will ‘track’ the trade ‘looking to go short’ with constants of 2/3.1 and today’s date.