Trading Systems in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Welles Wilder

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
947

Hi Guys,

I’m still here with 4 positions open at the moment that are going up and down like a yo-yo. Even though I only took a 1% margin on each it does get ‘exciting’ when it races towards the negative.

On the positive side though I’ve resisted the temptation to click the mouse when they are showing a little profit. Whatever the outcome this is going to be character building.

As an aside I was browsing through Forex Factory’s forum when I came across a Basic Breakout System by Effilang. It uses a variation of a multiplier on ATR which is where the similarity to Volatility system ends, but one interesting point (that has been mentioned here before also) is that Effi only takes trades that retrace first before returning to the entry point.

Anyway I’m going back to watch my open positions. I’m hoping its gonna be like a Rocky film, where our hero takes a beating and gets knocked down before coming back with the knockout punch.

Derek.

948

Good (Wednesday) morning everyone!!!

Hey ‘Father Ted’:

Pleased to hear things are going alright with you!!!

Now interestingly enough: I was thinking about exactly the same thing as you mentioned (although I have not seen the thread that you mention). It is QUITE POSSIBLY a solution to not have the positions go against you at first for a while. I suppose, of course, it’s like anything though: ‘you win some and you lose some’. Take a look at GBP/NOK right now for example. You’d STILL be waiting for that retractment!!! I can absolutely KICK myself for taking profit early on THAT trade I’ll tell you!!! Anyway: maybe it would be a good idea to go through all the pairs where we HAD signals and placed orders that were executed and see how many times there is a retractment and how many times price just goes straight up or straight down. If price almost always retraces after the first signal then I’d say it’d be better to wait for the retractment and miss the odd trade here and there.

kaalilaatikko:

I was wondering the same thing myself (‘where is everybody’)?

I think that whatever positions that you have open are going to be alright to be honest. It looks like this ‘AIG and WAMU thing’ were short lived (although in THIS market: WHO KNOWS). Anyway: I think the long GBP and EUR positions are going to pay off now (assuming that these ‘market girations’ are over now, at least for a while). Take a look at Derek’s post and my comment above and see what you think.

949

Hey, I just had a ‘brainwave’!!!

See what you think of this:

Our entries at the moment are based on a close contrary to the VSC(1) SAR right? But if your entry order gets executed and the price then retraces you, of course, carry that loss for a while. Right? Right!

But NOW:

What is you placed an ‘Enron’ order when you get a close contrary to the SAME VSC(1) as above. If the ‘Enron’ order gets executed you simply wait for a new signal on the same basis as the original entry.

Take a look at GBP/USD right now.

Our entry signal was generated on 2008-09-12 and the entry order was executed on 2008-09-15 and the position is in a loss at the moment BUT at no point since the order was executed have we had a close contrary the the same VSC(1) SAR that gave us our original entry so we’re still ‘good to go’.

NOW take a look at something like AUD/CHF.

Our entry signal was generated on 2008-09-11 and the entry order was executed on 2008-09-12. After that the price has turned BADLY against us but has not closed contrary to the VSC(3.1) which we’re using to keep us in the trade. HOWEVER: if we DO get a close contrary to the VSC(3.1) just look at the HUGE loss we’re going to carry before we ‘Un-Enron’ the position again. What I am saying NOW is this: on 2008-09-15 we had a close contrary to our original VSC(1) SAR. If we had placed an ‘Enron’ order below the low of THAT bar at the time: the position would be ‘Enron’d’ now BUT the loss that we would be carrying now would be minimal. We would now be waiting for a close contrary to our original VSC(1) SAR to ‘Un-Enron’ the position again. The point is this: if this price continues on down we’ve lost nothing and the loss that we’d currently be carrying would be a whole LOT less than what it would be IF we waited for a close contary to the VSC(3.1). Makes sense?

Now of course the reason that this COULD work is because at Delta you can ‘dispose’ of ‘partial lots’ without closing the position and realising the loss. This would not work at GCI (for example) because you don’t have this option i.e. you’d either have to take the loss or open a perfect ‘hedge’ and when you closed the hedge you’d take a loss anyway.

Of course: you may end up paying the spread a few times but I reckon that this amount would be nowhere NEAR the amount of loss that you’d carry with you if the position had to be ‘Enron’d’ upon a close contrary to the VSC(3.1).

I suppose IN SHORT: you enter upon a close contrary to the VSC(1) SAR as we have been doing but you ‘Enron’ upon a close contrary to the SAME VSC(1) SAR but in the opposite direction.

The basic idea is to limit the amount of loss (and therfore useable margin) that you carry if price goes against your position for a time.

Thoughts?

950

You know: I’ve been thinking some more since reading ‘Father Ted’s’ (Derek’s) post.

It actually reminded of something that I said on my old thread (the ‘Parabolic SAR - that’s all!!!’ thread). It was something along the lines of NOT taking a Parabolic SAR trade upon the INITAL signal but waiting for the first pullback CLOSE and only THEN taking the trade.

THEN I started thinking about something ELSE:

What is the MAJOR problem and ‘number 1 confidence killer’ in this business??? It’s taking a loss right??? Then it ‘dawned’ on me: if you ONLY EVER trade in ONE direction let’s say ‘long only’ (using ANY SYSTEM but I had Parabolic SAR in mind here) and you use my ‘Enron’ ‘system’ then how can you lose??? In other words: you’re NEVER closing out a position at a loss because you’re going to ‘Enron’ the position at the same place as you would normally be stopped out by Parabolic SAR and you’re going to ‘Un-Enron’ the position on the next Parabolic SAR signal in the direction of your orignal trade and so on and so forth!!! Obviously you’ll TP as per Parabolic SAR IF you’re going to in fact be taking profit upon that order being executed. In other words: you just keep ‘Enronning’ a Parabolic SAR position UNTIL it will close at a profit. The logic behind this is that NOTHING trades in a range forever and NOTHING goes STRAIGHT UP or STRAIGHT DOWN forever either.

What do you think of THAT???

Edit:

As a matter of fact:

If you wanted to just stay in the trade ‘until the cows come home’ for bigger profits you’d NEVER TP i.e. you’d just keep ‘Enronning’ EVEN IF you’re already in a profit of the position (which is exactly the same thing as ‘booking profit’). That way every time you then ‘Un-Enron’ the position thereafter you’ll just be adding to the profit. Basically all you’re doing here is ‘short covering’ when the trade goes against you.

951

Ok, ok, ok: I’ve got it!!!

(Ignore my previous posts today i.e. I’m not happy with them. They’re ‘drivel’. I tend to ‘waffle’ when I’m trying to get my thoughts together and that’s the result)!!!

HOWEVER:

Here’s the ‘plan’:

You trade with 2 instances of the VSC(1) on the chart. The first is for entry, and the second is the same one as you’d be using to TP (and is tracked from the date on which you got your entry signal). If you get a close contrary to the SAR of the second VSC(1) you place an order to ‘Enron’ the position. If this ‘Enron’ order is executed you then wait for another signal to ‘Un-Enron’ the position from the first (entry) VSC(1) which will continue to track the price that is now going against you. Note that you are NOT stopping and reversing ONLY ‘Enronning’ so don’t go and back test trading with the VSC(1) ‘both ways’ and tell me that you’re going to lose money. I have NO doubt that if you DID trade PURELY with the VSC(1) ‘both ways’ and stopped and reversed on every signal you’d lose money. This works because at Delta (and I don’t know of another broker to be honest) you can ‘dump’ ‘partial positions’ as it were.

Take a look at USD/NOK as an example. We’re in short now and the position is going against us. Using this ‘method’ the ‘Enron’ order would have been executed two days ago and the loss on the position would be WAY smaller than it is now. Eventually you’ll get to a point where you get another signal to go short at which point you’ll ‘Un-Enron’ the position. This serves two purposes: for one it limits the losses that we (I) carry for days on end and it frees up margin to take other (profitable) trades. Once these trades are closed out then obviously you can ‘Un-Enron’ with a bigger position.

952

While I’m all for a good plan, why not just plan to go long before something is going to make its run up, and go short before it gets ready to drop. Then the only problem you have is when to take profits. Boy, if only it were that easy, huh? :smiley:

I guess discussing the “Enron system applications” does fit when we’re facing a US financial system meltdown of epic proportions. Unfortunately, I don’t think many systems are giving “great” trades these days, as we’re all “trading the news” with the major headlines coming out of the US lately. Hopefully that storm will blow over sooner rather than later so we can return to this “normal markets” that Dale speaks so highly of :eek:

And to think 10-15 years from now I’ll be telling my kids I remember when…<insert great financial meltdown story here>. Wow, that makes me feel old!

953

Good (Thursday and HOPEFULLY ‘payday’) morning!!!

While I’m all for a good plan, why not just plan to go long before something is going to make its run up, and go short before it gets ready to drop.

Not quite the same thing I’m afraid!!!

Besides: everybody should be smiling about now given what’s happened with the positions that were opened on Sunday!!!

And let me tell you something ELSE for nothing: you think YOU’VE got a tough trading environment!!! Try trading the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, and DAX as a ‘long only shop’ in this environment!!!

Anyway: have a lovely day!!!

954

Good (Thursday) afteroon everyone.

Well:I’m sure that everyone has heard about and is keenly watching the ‘girations’ on Wall Street of late (and wondering how it’s affecting their investments). In keeping with my policy of transparency, and always posting ‘the good and the bad’, I find it prudent (albeit with a very heavy and embarrased heart) to disclose how this has affected my trading and accounts (both managed and my own accounts).

I have had to realise losses on some stocks. Here is my ‘obituary list’ (Delta has also suspended them from trading by the way):

Lehman Brothers
Washington Mutual (not a word Craig Dorry, not a word)!!!
AIG
Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae

The losses on the above represent 16% of my entire porfolio.

This is, however, NOT to say that these losses are not being covered by other positions. What it DOES mean of course is that my gains so far this month have been severely punished (although so far there is STILL a small overall profit).

Now: I have analysed those trades and each of them was done ‘by the book’ i.e. as per the VSC(1) ‘system’. The movement in those stocks were so ‘violent’ that by the time I was able to place ‘Enron’ orders the damage had already been done. I held on to them to see what would happen but, as I said, Delta has now suspended them from trading and, to be honest, I suppose they’ll just continue to ‘do nothing’ until they’re finally removed from the bourses.

Am I to blame? Yes but not for NOT following our trading systems. Yes because I suppose I should have known better than to invest in financials at this time (although on the other hand I had made some serious profits on these same stocks before this happened). Having said THAT though: people (who I would have just ASSUMED were ‘in the know’ have lost BILLIONS of dollars on these very same stocks). Of course: the stocks of the firms in my ‘obtiuary list’ were, once, blue chip stocks so who knew. A few weeks back I’d have got the same response from someone had I’d told them that Microsoft was ‘going under’ as I would have got had I been talking about Lehman Brothers or Morgan Stanley!!!

Sorry everyone: I know this may be a dissapointment to you all (obviously not so much for my clients because their returns are guaranteed) (although my guarantor is a lacking a little color in his cheeks at the moment). Believe me when I tell you that you can be no MORE dissapointed than I am. As you know: I’ve not actually realised a loss for well over three for four months now and these losses have broken that record in ‘spectacular fashion’. No matter that my capital and (past) gains is intact it still ‘knocks you’ psychologically I can tell you. But: I’ve been at this long enough now to know that as quickly as you can lose: as quickly you can get back on top IF YOU JUST KEEP YOUR HEAD!!! Yes: it takes a bit of ‘personal convincing’ but it’s got to be done.

Needless to say: that was my total exposure to financial stocks!!! Unlike Wall Street there are no other ‘skeletons in my closet’!!!

Again let me reiterate at this point: NONE of these losses are due to ‘the old mans’ trading systems (or our derivations thereof). As a matter of fact: left to my own devices WITHOUT these systems the losses would have been FAR FAR worse I can assure you.

So there you have it. I just felt that it needed to me made ‘public’ because I’d hate for my clients to have to play the ‘guessing game’ as Wall Street and the Fed has people like me doing on a daily basis due to lack of disclosure!!! The fact of the matter is: I’m a bit dissapointed in the Fed (for what it’s worth) i.e. they have been very ‘selective’ in who they provide assistance to and who they do not.

(As I type this I’ve just heard that AIG has been replaced by Kraft in the Dow. Freddie and Fannie were remove last Monday from the S&P 500).

We may be seeing history in the making but it is a sad day when Wall Street firms that were ‘institutions’ like Lehman and Merrill dissapear from the Manhattan skyline!!! (I was hoping they’d offer me a JOB there one day)!!!

955

Now you know (further to my post above):

It’s time that even I start agreeing with the pessimists!!! A few weeks ago there were a few that were saying that the Dow would get to down to as low as 10 000 before we saw a bottom in the market. At the time I laughed because I thought that there was NO WAY that the Fed would allow the US markets to go this way. Well: I’ve now taken a step back and tried to ‘see the bigger picture’ again and tried to fathom out where these ideas were coming from and here is what I NOW TOO see happening:

I now ‘call the bottoms’ here:

Dow: 9 992
Nasdaq 100 (Futures): 1 487
S&P 500 (Futures): 1 076
DAX: 5 511

The above is taken from the monthly chart of the indices. In the case of the Dow and the DAX this is a the value of LBOP. In the case of the Nasdaq 100 (Futures) the value is LSTOP3. In the case of the S&P 500 (Futures) the value is LSTOP1. Why the difference: because they always follow each other and the Dow has two levels to go to LBOP. The Nasdaq 100 (Futures) has ALREADY hit this months LBOP level. The S&P 500 (Futures) is trading through B2 as I type this post. (Of course as you know those are also Pivot Levels so ‘take your pick’)!!!

Now these seem like extreme movements but with the way that the Dow has been moving of late: these levels could be reached over a period of two or three days!!!

This DOES affect forex traders because of the correlation between these indices and the GBP and EUR (not to mention that if these drops occur then the price of Gold and Silver will ‘go through the roof’ which has ALREADY started to happen).

Let’s see what happens.

Of course (if I’m right): a $25 position of Dow (Futures) will nett you $4 000 per contract WHEN the Dow gets to 14 000 (and this time it will go WAY past that).

An addition:

Applying ‘the old mans’ ‘Delta Phenomenon’ here: I predict we’ll reach these bottoms on or just before 14 October 2008!!! (See chart attached). At that point you could probably ‘bet the farm’ on these indices and GBP/JPY (as long as ‘betting the farm’ does not violate your money management rules)!!!

Edit:

LOL!!! For what it’s worth: I’ve just heard on Bloomberg that Goldman Sachs are calling the S&P’s bottom at 1 070!!!

dowdeltachart.zip (69.5 KB)

956

Hello all,

Haven’t posted here in months, but I have most certainly been keeping well versed with the happenings of the thread! (Sometimes here checking for posts 3 or 4 times daily!!!)

My account is being opened with Delta as we speak, and I should be up and trading this week, or early next!

The state of the markets right now is quite intimidating, and I have absolutely no problem taking a backseat to the professionals (DALE!) who have the experience to tackle these tough times. I can limit my exposure and participate (on a MUCH smaller scale) but also learn at the same time! (losing a couple bucks here and there) Everyone can make money in a bull market, but it is times like these that separate the men from the boys!!! (for lack of a better phrase)

I have been trading demo for months and thought I would post a rather exciting VSC(1)entry I recently took on Gold. I have attached a picture which I am sure the regulars here were ‘all over’ this week, but for those new to the thread, innocent bystanders, or just passers by, check this out!

Entries like these feel like a Golf game… Out of the 90 or so shots I take in a round, 80-85 are absolutely terrible and sometimes require large amounts of anger to be taken out on objects in my golf bag…! 5-10 of those shots make me feel like I should be on TSN wearing a Green Jacket. Although I would hope an experienced trader would have a much better ‘handicap’ than I do, textbook entries like this one that are 100% successful are HUGE confidence boosters.

And yes, as Dale always says, its not over until the ‘fat lady sings.’ But with this trade, you would be hard pressed not to turn a profit. Even a 19 handicapper like me can do it!!! LOL…

Regards,
M.

OIL VSC1 entry.jpg700×442 42.5 KB

957

Well ‘sirkeen’: you’ve certainly got it!!! That’s for sure!!! (Why do you think I was not looking for something high to jump off of)!!!

I really do believe that this VSC(1) ‘thing’ is ‘the ticket’. As I said in a previous post though: I tend to carry MUCH bigger losses than necessary until they turn to profit. From what I’m seeing of late: if a trade closes contrary to the second VSC(1) (as in my post regarding this) it’s going to go against you and you don’t have to wait for a close contrary to a VSC(3.1) to make sure!!! But other than that: I believe it’s a good system and the fact that it is normally ‘verified’ by a SIS entry makes me even more sure that we’re on the right track here.

But WELL DONE!!! I’m only sorry your (own) live trading account was not yet open.

Just one thing that I must mention to everyone (which I suppose is very obvious until you lose sight of it and it ‘catches you in the tail’ when you least expect it):

With things like Silver and Gold and stocks (ESPECIALLY Silver and ‘cheap stocks’):

Be careful to not get ‘lulled’ into thinking that JUST BECAUSE you’re opening a position based on your money management rules (the 1.875% or whatever percentage you’re using rule) that you can ‘go’ for a greater number of units. In other words: let’s say that you bought a stock at $50.00. You’d only be able to buy ‘so much’ and not be violating your money management rules. However: let’s say that you bought a stock at $1.00. While STILL not violating your money management rules (you’d THINK) you can buy a WHOLE lot more units of that stock. So what happens? The dollar amount per point movement on the cheaper stock could be say $10 per point movement whereas the dollar amount per point movement in the more expensive stock may only be $1. And Silver is a ‘classic trap’ for this (more than anything) i.e. because Silver is so ‘cheap’ per lot the tendency (I know because I’ve done this before) is to ‘load up’ on lots because (foolishly) you’re thinking that because you’re not violating your money management rules there is no problem. This is great if the trade is going in your favour but believe me when I say that if it goes against you it can, and will, takes YEARS off of your life!!!

Basically the above comes down to what’s been discussed before i.e. the ‘weighting’ of forex pairs. Now I’m still not convinced that this necessary for forex pairs but it SURE DOES apply to gold, silver, and (cheap) stocks!!!

958

Good (Friday) morning.

Ohhhh man!!! Have I just realised the ‘gravity’ of what I posted above. This is a MAJOR problem with our money management rules (as they stand)!!! Well: at least when it comes to Silver, Gold, and CFD’s (Stocks)!!! And it’s ALL got to do with ‘weighting’ of the instruments as mentioned in my previous post above!!!

Here’s what I’m talking about:

Let’s assume that EUR/USD is our ‘benchmark’.

Let’s also assume that we’re talking about an account with a $10 000 balance for the purposes of this excercise.

Let’s also assume that we’re going to be using 1.875% of our account balance as the maximum margin used on a single position as per our money management rules (as they stand now).

Now check this out:

1.875% of $10 000 is $187 (remember we round down).

As I type: the closest you’re going to get to this figure because of the current EUR/USD exchange rate is $178.06 which is 25 lots of 1 000 units which, obviously, equates to 25 000 units. Now with EUR/USD: 10 000 units equates to $1 profit or loss per pip movement. So on this lot size: the profit or loss per pip movement would be $2.50. No problem so far and acceptable and, in my opinion, 'fit’s with ‘the old man’s’ Capital Management (or should I say our derivative thereof).

BUT NOW:

Let’s take Silver.

As per our money management rules (as they stand): we’d be able to buy 1 538 units of Silver (at this time) and not (supposedly) be violating our money management rules right??? But HERE’S THE CATCH: THIS lot size on Silver equates to $15.38 profit or loss PER CENT MOVEMENT IN SILVER which is WAY ‘over the top’ for a $10 000 account!!! Actually: we should only be buying 250 lots of Silver for the profit or loss to be ‘on a par’ with EUR/USD as in the example above EVEN ALTOUGH this would represent a margin cost of FAR less than 1.875% of our money mangement rules (as they stand)!!! And do NOT fool yourself by saying: ‘Yes BUT EUR/USD moves FAR more in a day than Silver does’!!! BELIEVE me: $15.38 profit or loss per cent movement in Silver can, and will, ‘take you out’ if the trade goes against you!!!

The same applies to stocks (ESPECIALLY the ‘cheap’ ones). Basically: 100 units is equivalent to $1 profit or loss per pip movement. If you’re buying a CFD (stock) at $2.05 (which is where AIG, Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, and others ‘landed up’) you’d have been able to buy 913 units which equates to $9.13 profit or loss per point movement in that stock!!! BELIEVE ME: it’s DANGEROUS!!!

Oh well: YOU LIVE AND LEARN!!!

959

Ok well:

Here’s the formulae to work all of this out:

For ???/USD pairs it’s real easy:

A single lot of 10 000 units will equal a $1 USD profit or loss per pip movement.

If you REALLY need to see how THAT one works:

EUR/USD:

10 000 * 0.0001 = $1 USD per pip movement.

For ???/JPY pairs e.g. EUR/JPY:

10 000 * 0.01 = 100 [B]JPY[/B] per pip movement.

So here you have to take the JPY per pip movement and divide it by the USD/JPY exchange rate. The equation would therefore look like this now:

10 000 * 0.01 = 100 [B]JPY[/B] / 107.62 (USD/JPY exchange rate) = $0.93 USD per pip movement.

But BE CAREFUL:

If you’re going to ‘weight’ forex pairs you ALSO have to take the ‘normal’ movement of a forex pair into account.

For example:

GBP/ZAR:

10 000 * 0.0001 = 1 [B]ZAR[/B] BUT 1 ZAR (at the moment) equals $8.08 USD!!! That is why this pair ‘pays out’ so handsomely (or can result in huge losses given the same lot size)!!!

The calculation for the above is :

10 000 * 0.0001 = 1 ZAR / 8.08 (USD/ZAR exchange rate) = $0.1238 USD.

Now $0.1238 USD looks ‘minimal’ BUT REMEMBER: THIS pair, on average, moves in excess of 500 pips per day (so far, today, it’s moved 2 824 pips and that means that so far, today, you’ve either MADE $349.61 USD on a 10 000 unit lot or you’ve lost the same SO FAR today)!!! THERE is the difference.

For Silver and Gold and CFD’s it’s (also) easy:

100 units of ANY of the above will equal a $1 USD profit or loss per pip movement.

Hope this helps.

(Also: PLEASE check my calculations here i.e. I THINK I am right and have double checked them but HEY let’s face the fact that I’ve been KNOWN to make mistakes)!!!

960

Arrrgh!

Somebody else please take profit first! I SOOOO want to close out now - never before has my account shown such good profits over so short a time - but I don’t want to miss out what could be even better!

I’m off to find someone else’s nails to bite - I’ve none left.

961

Hey ‘Father Ted’,

I envy you!!! I’ve had a habismal week!!! Not that I’m NOT making money but, to be honest, my stock losses have taken somewhat of a toll on my psyche!!! For the very first time, in a very long time, I’m actually GLAD it’s Friday. It’ll give me some time to ‘regroup the neurons’!!!

And listen: remember that profit is in the exits!!!

By the way: I was just going over my ‘Delta Phenomenon’ chart of the Dow. It seems my drawing was a little out. It does not affect where ‘the proverbial bottom’ is called though. Oddly enough: on a day like this, when stocks are rallying as if there has never been such a thing as a short sale, it’s REAL hard to even THINK that the Dow getting to 10 000 is even a REMOTE possiblity. We shall see though. We shall see. So far: Wilder has been ‘on the mark’ every time: not to the exact price and not to the exact day but I’m happy with a margin of error of 100 points on the Dow either way!!! We shall see!!!

As you may all have gathered I’m not my usual ‘chirpy’ self and this is making me a ‘dull boy’!!! I know how you feel ‘Father Ted’ (about not wanting to miss out on even greater profits). I’m REAL mad about the way things have turned out this week. Why did Bernanke, Paulson, Cox & Co. take the line they did with Freddie and Fannie, and then hang Lehman out to dry, and then take the line that they did with AIG again??? Had they done back THEN EXACTLY what they did last night I’d be smiling all the way to the bank right now (and I know of quite a few BILLIONAIRES that would also be a lot happier right now)!!! I mean: they took over Freddie and Fannie (effectively wiping out the price of the common stock), they then let Lehman fail (with obvious results), and then did the same thing with AIG as they did with Freddie and Fannie!!! TODAY all of a sudden: we have NOT only a ban on ‘naked’ short selling BUT A TOTAL BAN on short selling on 700 or so stocks (financials) and, as if THAT were not enough, NOW all of a sudden they’re prepared to take all the ‘toxic debt’ off of the books of whatever financial institutions need it. I’m not quite sure who the bigger rogues are right now: the short sellers or the Fed or the SEC!!! Possibly all three???

Anyway: of course I want to hit someone or break something but, as I have learned, it’s just something that you have to somehow deal with and accept. Nobody (other than you guys and dolls) will understand what I’m talking about or feeling so there is no use in complaining!!!

Yeh I know: at first I blamed myself, now I blame them (when I see stocks ‘taking off’ again). Who is next I wonder!!!

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!

dowdeltacorrection.zip (49 KB)

962

I did it - closed out.

I just passed my monthly target (12.3% - gives double in 6 months) for the FIRST TIME EVER! I know it pales against Dale’s usual return and that possibly if I’d held in there I’d get much bigger numbers next week, but JUST ONCE I wanted to savour the feeling of having achieved my Forex goal. In fact I don’t think I’ll trade any more this month because Murphy’s law is bound to get me.

Dale - I know Wall Street let you down this week and that can’t feel good but THANK YOU - I really was ready to give this up some time ago, but between introducing me to Welles-Wilder and more importantly general encouragement here and specific on YM I am tonight a happy camper! There will be a glass or 2 of Black Bush raised in your honour tonight.:D:D:D:D

963

Hello, Derek! Am I the first chicken here today? I have closed all of my open positions that were on profit in the course of this evening. I have to calm my nerves now by stabilising my account and the positions, which have miraculously recovered today so that I’m again on small profit.

The volatility will supposedly be high on everything in the near future, so I’ll have good time on the weekend to consider reopening at least some of them at better price again next week. And there are new signals emerging, see e.g. GBP/NOK short.

What a week! I guess this is not completely over yet, but deducing by the rising daily post count indicator, we are again heading towards better times.

J.

964

WELL WELL DONE!!!

You won’t be sorry. There is ALWAYS another trade. ALWAYS!!!

But do yourself a favour:

DO CONTINUE to follow those same trades through until their (our) conclusion. It MAY make you feel better about taking profit when you did!!! On the OTHER hand: if it does NOT, however, and the trade continues on ‘in your favor’, it builds confidence in the systems and their exits. It does NOT mean that you’ll never take profit early again BUT it WILL give you the ‘faith’ to hold on ‘just that little bit longer’ until eventually you have enough faith in the systems to just let them ‘do their thing’ and let the trades run their course. This is something that takes time (and, as I have said before, even I take profit early sometimes, usually when the profits are just ‘way too good’ which is where I reckon you were so, for what it’s worth, nothing wrong there)!!!

965

Good (Saturday) morning all.

Hey ‘Father Ted’:

Maybe you WILL end up ‘kicking yourself’!!! I heard on the radio here this morning that our ruling party wants our current president to resign early. How well this type of ‘action’ is going to do down with the international community I do not know. If it does NOT go down too well then, of course, this should send the ZAR into ‘free fall’ against the USD, EUR, and the GBP (in which case, of course, you’d be looking a MAJOR gains). That’s the funny thing you know: it does not matter HOW good a trading system you have it cannot ‘predict’ fundamentals unfortunately. Under ‘normal’ trading conditions your trading system should ‘follow the market’ no problem but when it comes to ‘extraordinary events’ (the likes of the Wall Street ‘issues’ this past week and now this) then all ‘logic’ and ‘technicals’ ‘go flying out of the window’.

Oh and by the way: NOW the SEC is revising it’s short selling rules again. You know what: they’re really starting to remind me of a trader who cannot follow a system and jumps from one foot to the next or from one system to the next without having strategy and we ALL know where THAT gets a person!!! So now??? This should be another intersesting week!!!

966

Hi Dale,

You may be right - I’m already doing the couldawouldashoulda dance and I don’t even know which way the market is going to move yet! In fact just looking back over the daily charts you really can see how news driven they are at the moment. I suppose its usually one of the benefits of trading at least daily bars that you dont get whipsawed out by news, but the events are so huge and they just keep coming.

I think its just tough times for heads of state now (assuming its over the financial crisis with South Africa as well). We have the same here with the ruling Labour party starting to bicker among themselves trying to get their own leader Prime Minister Brown out. George W. was just lucky he is already due to leave and the new campaigning teams are all out selling hope to eager listeners (will voters never learn - if a politician’s lips are moving…)

Anyway I’ve decided to just watch for the rest of the month to see if the news starts to slow and the markets begin to pick up the pieces. I’m sure there’s probably money to made for those who are brave enough but please take care, especially with your money management.

All the best.

Derek.