NOW LOOK J.!!!
Are you TRYING to give everyone ‘heart failure’ here??? LOL!!!
I am not QUITE sure that I understand what you’re saying. ARE YOU SAYING that IN SPITE of our new ‘DX fix’ there are STILL HUMUNGOUS losses as per your backtesting??? IF SO: I PERSONALLY DON’T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT IT!!! (OK: only ‘kidding around’)!!! But PLEASE DO explain a bit further.
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
Well:
I don’t know about anyone else BUT:
I have been waiting for TWO MONTHS now for GBP/JPY to ‘give a signal’ AND if it closes where it is in the next two hours: WE HAVE A SIGNAL!!!
GLORY DAYS!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokers-ON-STEROIDS.net)!!!
Edit:
And THAT’S NOT ALL!!! EUR/GBP (short DMS signal)!!!
Edit:
GBP/BGN (another personal favourite)!!!
Have a look at this picture. GBP/USD around February this year. For some reason my platform has lost most of the date stamps.
Brown lines indicate short trades and blue lines long trades. The pink line is the stop when in trade. A trade is opened in the beginning of a line and closed in the end. There is a thin head before the trades showing the stop order.
If the tail of a short trade points up (or down for a long trade), it means a losing trade.
I’m using here ADX(7) and DX(7). Stop orders are placed at a distance of 0.2*ATR from the candle.
Please tell me that I have done something wrong here!
J.
DMS_indicator_GBPUSD.zip (23.3 KB)
Dale: Can’t GBPJPY wait a week or two until I get my account set up? I’m really worried that I’m missing all the good signals, and I’ll be waiting another month for action like this. 
J: I hope, like Dale, that your backtesting is not failing even with this new system. I can’t believe that this system doesn’t work, considering that it comes from Wilder himself, and he must’ve made wads of cash using this very methodology (plus, I think we really have improved it)!
Let’s all just ‘hold our thumbs’ and hope for the best… I know today is no indicator of future longterm success, but I can’t argue with the numbers.
Happy Pips,
Cody
what an absolutely incredible and patient man you are ---- women must love you !
mp
btw, whats happening — should i run out and do something other than a dance in the streets in congolenese loincloth complete with medicine pole ?
[QUOTE=dpaterso;83843]Well:
I have been waiting for TWO MONTHS now for GBP/JPY to ‘give a signal’ AND if it closes where it is in the next two hours: WE HAVE A SIGNAL!!!
nice work J
But how about ADX 14 and DX 14 are they having the same results???
i do really hope (like u and all of us) u r wrong!!!
Regards,
Akram
All,
I posted before that I would take 20 trades using DMS(13) with a mix of ELder, Wilder and my own methodology. I just thought I would post an update here.
Closed Postions:
XAG/USD: 0.5% profit. Moved to SL to lock in profits and it was hit. May look to re-enter)
AUD/USD: 1% profit. Price hit profit objective at 0.7200. May look to re-enter.
Open Positions:
NZDUSD: Showing small profit but looking for further upside
EUR/JPY: Showing small profit Almost hit profit target but now trending sideways.
USD/JPY: Just entered. Showing small profit at present.
Other pairs are being monitored for an entry but orders not hit at time of writing.
My money management is conservative at the moment as I consider this as system testing. I am only tracking about 20 pairs as well due to time constraints and work etc. More news to follow.
over and out for now
Good (Wednesday) morning everyone!!!
J.:
I shall take a ‘squiz’ at GBP/USD for those dates and ‘manually’ or ‘visually’ backtest and see what I come up with (using ADX(14) and DX(14)).
Before I do so though I wanted to post this (because it’s been ‘worrying the hell out of me’. That said: WE SHOULD ALL KNOW BETTER i.e. the answers are ALWAYS in ‘the book’):
First:
When the DX ‘levels out’ or ‘goes flat’:
This is known as an ‘inside day’!!! (Page 36)!!!
Here is a brief explanation:
I’ve checked some charts and the (our) formula is 100% correct as well.
Edit:
SORRY: I forgot to mention WHY this is important to us!!!
When the DX ‘flattens’ out you have two FINE choices:
If you want to give the trade some more ‘room’ to see if it’s going to continue on in your favor:
If you’re short then your protective stop gets placed above the high of the PRECEDING bar and if you’re long then your protective stop gets placed below the low of the PRECEDING bar (you know: the ‘a couple of ticks’ ‘business’)!!! This done because as I understand it: after an ‘inside day’ price could go either way i.e. either above the high of the preceding bar or below the low of the preceding bar. Also: I’ve checked this ‘phenomenon’ on the Dow (so far only) and INDEED: MOST TIMES when there is an ‘inside day’ at the end of a trend then price turns the next day and goes in the opposite direction. Whether or not this is reliable enough on its own to TRADE I’m not sure (although I do know that there are many trading systems on this very site that are based on the ‘inside day’ formation).
If you DO NOT want to give the trade some more ‘room’ and simply want to take as much profit from the trade as possible and close out:
If you’re short then your protective stop gets placed above the high of the CURRENT bar and if you’re long then your protective stop gets placed below the low of the CURRENT bar (you again know: the ‘a couple of ticks’ ‘business’)!!!
(And I’m ALMOST sure that I don’t have to mention that NOTHING is valid until a CLOSE)!!!
Second:
STRAIGHT FROM THE BOOK!!!
(Page 40)!!!
If you all want to know EXACTLY what the DX is showing us:
‘The DX will decrease as the price tops out and starts down, and it will increase again as the price continues on down.’ or (translated) ‘The DX will decrease as the price bottoms out and starts up, and it will increase again as the price continues on up.’!!!
Nice huh!!!
Now as for the rest of you (us):
DO NOT PANIC!!!
We are NOT going to have 100% ‘winners’!!! It’s JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN and it would be one ‘hell of a stretch’ for me to believe that if trading 44 pairs and who knows how many CFD’s and commodities they’re ALL going to be ‘losers’ at the same time!!! I currently have 18 positions open and 4 of them are ‘losers’ (so OBVIOUSLY the other 14 are ‘winners’) and the NETT results puts me ‘up’ (on this account) by 23% on the month. So I don’t really care if the DMS lets me down on few trades as long as the NETT result is a profit. All I’m saying is that I myself am guilty of ‘obsessing’ on one or two pairs when backtesting. I don’t believe this is a fair ‘sample’. And you also have to ask yourself what you would do if, say, you’d doubled your account balance by the middle of the month??? System or no system: would you not say to yourself ‘hey: I’m doing as well if not better than Jim Rogers’ so ‘screw it’ I’m taking my 100% and coming back next month!!! See my point???
Have a WONDERFUL day!!!
(Oh and Cody: it appears that GBP/JPY MAY INDEED ‘wait for you’)!!! (I emailed Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling and asked them to ‘mess about’ with the GBP until you’re ready)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
Gentlemen,
Well, things have turned down since yesterday (though we’re still nicely in profit), but it is again one of those times where I say to myself “Real money, I would’ve taken all my profit yesterday!” Then again, until we’ve fully set up the account, might as well see how the systems work themselves out, eh? I think my personal lesson is “trust your feelings; if you’re up a ridicuous amount in a day, cash out and wait to see if you can reenter tomorrow.” Would’ve worked darn good this time. 
Still, as Dale says, the majority of our pairs are in profit, we’re still up 10% or so, and thats nothing to beat ourselves up about.
Happy Pips,
Cody
Hello Guys,
good morning everyone well not that good but hey not bad as well!!!
I am still up with in 13% .I do have 12 positions right now where i can see 4 of them in losses and the rest are showing profit.Prices moved allot with in the European session and that doesn’t mean that we should panic over here.
For the inside day that dale mentioned i think it is something good to know will help us allot .Thanks my old China!!
Regards,
Akram
hello dale,
i can see something now on Delta Platform it is not actually moving i mean the price and positions are not moving do u have the same problem??? or it is only me???
Regards,
Akram
ok they r working right now properly
Akram
Akram:
But how about ADX 14 and DX 14 are they having the same results???
It seems that actually there may not be that much difference between the parameters 7 or 14. It has happened now recently more than twice that I’ve leaned towards either of them, then I add one missing part to the calculations, and the other parameter starts then look to better. I’d say now that select either of them as your lucky number and use that.
Dale:
We are NOT going to have 100% ‘winners’!!! It’s JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN and it would be one ‘hell of a stretch’ for me to believe that if trading 44 pairs and who knows how many CFD’s and commodities they’re ALL going to be ‘losers’ at the same time!!!
True, but I remember too well the VSC1 system. I had some 10-12 positions open based on splendid signals, and they turned against me, badly, every single one of them. I remember thinking at the time of entry that, well, there is some risk in this now, but it just isn’t possible that they all would fail. But they did, and worse than I could have imagined. I jumped out of the trades maybe a bit late, I should have done that earlied but nevertheless, could have performed also even worse. It’s the 100% losers why I’m maybe a bit overcautious now.
Cody:
Well, things have turned down since yesterday (though we’re still nicely in profit), but it is again one of those times where I say to myself “Real money, I would’ve taken all my profit yesterday!” Then again, until we’ve fully set up the account, might as well see how the systems work themselves out, eh? I think my personal lesson is “trust your feelings; if you’re up a ridicuous amount in a day, cash out and wait to see if you can reenter tomorrow.” Would’ve worked darn good this time.
Once you are working with real money, you’ll find out that it is much more difficult than that, and I’d say that’s because the greed and fear factors have been multiplied then. I’m maybe not the best person to give any advice here, but this could be a great excercise to learn taking the profit with fake money as well.
[B]Everyone:[/B]
This is a challenge for all of you that are trading with some version of DMS: look very closely at the chart that I posted yesterday and find at least one problem or possibility for improvement in placing the trades therein!
Great rewards available! Safety cushions for not running full speed against a brick wall!
I will give this indicator for all interested once it is ready for distribution (a beta version could be that very soon, even for this excercise, please let me know if you are interested in having it), but before that I think everyone’s help would be extremely valuable here. After all, we are working on something that should work for the best of everyone, and my interpretation of all of this is not necessarily a good one (I was going to say “the best one”, but beware the last pip syndrome!).
Best Regards,
J.
Hello,
I’m surprised!!! LOL!!! I thought this thread would be FULL of panic stricken ‘Wilder traders’!!! That said: before expecting any sympathy from me then I think that you should know that I’m LONG ON OIL!!!
Anyway:
J.:
I’ve attached a chart of GBP/USD showing roughly the same time period as yours. I’ve NOT gone through the individual trades as yet but I just wanted to point out that there is indeed a big difference between ADX(7) and ADX(14) when it comes to the ADX Oscillator indicating a trading range (which I deem to exist ONLY when ADX is below BOTH +DI and -DI i.e the THICK-EST lines not the THICK-ER lines). All I’m saying is that if you were using ADX(14) back then: there are a lot of trades around that time where you should NOT have been using the DMS AT ALL. As far as I can tell though: the VALID DMS trades that WERE done around that time were INDEED all losers (well one was a small profit) but I’m still busy ‘trading’ as I would have done using the DMS back then (knowing what I know now). Once done I’ll obviously post.
I now have many losing positions. If it were not for Oil I’d still be in a VERY small profit. That said: some of the profitable positions are still showing nice gains. Now I find myself wondering if THIS is not a viable strategy: on the PROFITABLE positions I will have the opportunity to place a protective stop because the DX will probably close ‘flat’ and, in most cases, this stop will in effect be locking in profits. Now on most of the losing positions: the DX will also probably close ‘flat’ or it has fallen. The question: is it viable to ONLY place protective stops as per our new DX ‘rules’ IF the execution of such stop order will result in a profit but if the position is currently a ‘loser’ you simply let the DMS ‘run it’s course’??? ASIDE from the fact that I HATE taking losses: there is, believe it or not, a good and LOGICAL reason why I’m ‘toying’ with this idea and asking this question!!! Take Oil for example. ‘Popular belief’ is that Oil will trade in a range of between $40 and $60 for a time to come. So the chances are that if I hold on to the position it will eventually turn to a profit the proviso of course being that if I get a DMS signal to SAR then I would be forced to take it. I think AGAIN about ‘The Extreme Point Rule’ as well. Using Oil again as an example: if I DO get a signal to SAR (short) the chances are good that as per ‘The Extreme Point Rule’ the SAR order will NOT get executed and the price will turn again in my favor. I know this may SOUND like ‘wishful thinking’ (and I suppose it is)!!! LOL!!! That said: the DMS (especially using ADX(14)) DOES NEED ‘room to move’ and I’m just a bit concerned here that with this new DX ‘rule’ we’re ‘interfering’ just a LITTLE BIT too much i.e. we’re sort of ‘clipping its wings’!!!
J.??? Thoughts???
Now I KNOW why things have ‘turned on us’ i.e. stocks are down today after a six day rally.
BUT I ALSO know that Obama is giving a speech tomorrow:
And I ALSO know that if investors ‘like what they hear’: the Dow can ‘turn on a dime’. SO: better to do NOTHING for now (tonight)???
Food for thought!!!
Anyway, for what it’s worth: I closed out GBP/USD at a profit today!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
gbpusdadxodx.zip (71.1 KB)
Now further to my previous post above: another observation.
It’s very apparent (to me anyway) that whenever the DX is approaching ZERO i.e. very very low then a day or two later the price seems to turn very rapidly in the direction as indicated by ADX / the ADX Oscillator. Could this in ITSELF be a ‘trading system’??? Also: the downturn in the DX on the ‘losers’ to which I were referring in my previous post would, in some instances, cause the DX to be ALMOST ZERO so is there a point in placing the protective stops on these positions???
Again: just thoughts.
SOMEWHERE in all of this is the ‘one size fits all’ solution. We just need to recognise it is all!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
Hallo Dale,
hallo J and all you others. Always following with GREAT interest. You might not beleive, but I’m approaching the head from the tail, so soon I hope to be able to interact a bit more constructively.
Just a small thing: Dale, it’s just me having some browser/computer problems or you forgot to attach the promised chart? It’d be nice for following the discussion!
Bye
Fabio
Edit:
SOMEWHERE in all of this is the ‘one size fits all’ solution. We just need to recognise it is all!!!
Are you really sure that such stuff exists? Well, looking the thread with an “historical perspective” it does not immediately seem to be the case. And also the “old wise man”: “In all the years I have spent developing and analyzing technical trading methods, I have yet to see any [I]one[/I] that is [B]consistently[/B] profitable [B]in all markets[/B]” (p. 8)…
Hey Fabio.
Sorry about the chart (I DID INDEED forget to attach it)!!! Anyway: it’s there now. Thanks for pointing that out (it’s not LIKE me to forget something like that)!!!
I know that not all systems will work in all markets. What we’ve ‘uncovered’ is a potential flaw in a system EVEN WHEN it’s being used in the CORRECT market conditions (as per ADX anyway).
Regards,
Dale (forexbrokersonline.net).
Gentlemen,
And I thought things were bad this morning! I go away for my faculty orientation today, and I come back to this. Sigh. Well, as Dale says, the Obama speach might turn things around very quickly. It’s funny, if you look at most of these recent signal trades, they have all done the same exact thing: fast steady increases for the past few days, and then, today, they plummet like a rock. Ah well, I trust this system, so I have to believe that they will turn back to profit.
Last month: After less than a week, I had astronomical gains (50, 60%?), and they all went away in a day. Then I spent the rest of the month earning them back the hard way.
This month: After less than a week, I had astronomical gains (20, 30%?), and they all went away in a day… Guess what I’ll spend the rest of the month doing?
I guess my point is this: these systems work, and though the markets can yank us around a bit, have confidence. Let us watch and wait.
Happy Pips,
Cody
Good morning,
I think, Dale, that your notes are quite relevant. I dropped out considering ADX being below the DI lines a while ago, when it seemed that possible wrong alerts could be taken care by these new rules. I need to reconsider that. I’ve also noticed some potential patterns in DX behaviour that need more studying. And I’m now pretty sure that the inside day has importance when analysing DX. The “one size fits all” requirement includes, as far as I see it, the ability to say when to trade with a method and when not. I hope to find a solution for that that satisfies myself. The study will continue.
All, when reading my scribbles, please remember that I’m in a search for a system that would make it possible to let the computer trade. This leaves less room for human judgement, except in the form of generally commanding the computer to follow or stop following a pair. It is a bit challenging to program common sense or knowledge of general fundaments like Obama’s speech. All this means that a computer may not perform as well in the same situation as a human could, and you should filter my backtesting results with that in mind.
Cody, be happy that you had the gains first, before they went away. Don’t forget that the opposite order is also possible in this business, not necessarily because of a system, but because of psychology…
J.
Good (Thursday) morning everyone!!!
Well: NOT so good of course!!!
If it’s any consolation Cody: I’m just as dissapointed as you my man!!!
If nothing else though: EVEN in these ‘trying times’ there is a lesson to be learned!!! EVERYONE that’s trading just think what WOULD be happening without our money management rules!!!
That said: no this does not feel good at all!!!
J.:
Thanks for your post and insight ONCE AGAIN!!!
Now you know what: last night I took ‘the book’ to bed again to see if we’ere STILL not missing something. Now while I find NOTHING that is ‘amiss’ with what we’re doing there is a statement that I saw in ‘the book’ some time ago that’s also been ‘bugging’ me for a time now and, as a matter of fact, I seem to remember posting about it a while back on ‘the thread’ as well. WHY a period of 14??? Or 7??? Or any other figure that somebody at some or the other point in time has decided on??? I mean: why not 2 or 365??? WHY ALWAYS 14??? A period of 14 seems to be the most ‘popular’ for most indicators (not only Wilder’s). WHY??? Now the ONLY PLACE I’ve EVER SEEN an explanation for this is in ‘the book’ on page 32: ‘We use 14 days because that is an average half-cycle period’. Well as much as I hate to question ‘the old man’: SAYS WHO??? BASED ON WHAT??? HALF-CYCLE PERIOD OF WHAT??? The ONLY thing that I can find that ‘justifies’ the number 14 is the fact that the earth moves around the sun every 27.something days (rounds to 28 days). (Don’t laugh: ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ is BASED on the movements of the earth, the moon, and the sun, although at the time of his writing ‘New Concepts’ he’d not even THOUGHT about nor NEARD of ‘The Delta Phenomenon’). So I started thinking of other ‘possibilites’. On average there are 22 working days in a month. Would 11 therefore not be a better period setting??? On the EUR/USD chart: between 2007-01-01 and 2007-12-31 there are 259 daily bars. Divide 259 by 12 (months) and you get 21.58 (rounds to 22). Divide that by 2 and we get 11!!! Do you see what I’m getting at here??? Now J.: you are the only person who has the ability to acurately backtest so how about trying a period of 11 (or 10 or 12) and see if that changes anything. It certainly appears to have made a slight difference in profitability based on the same time period as we’ve’ been checking for GBP/USD.
I’m NOT saying that this is THE answer but it’s ‘food for thought’ anyway.
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).