I’ve just been looking at my charts and here’s what I’ve seen:
This week has produced a nice pinbar at the top of a wave, now this may become a swing high. The way price rose up to the high and was rejected by the commercials makes me think of this as a strong resistance, so I’ve placed a line on it so that I can monitor price action when it returns in the future.
I’ve also marked support at 1.5942 to check price action there, which coincides with 62% fib retracement!
My plan now is to monitor price as I think it will probably go lower early on and retrace towards the week’s high. If we have a rise up and down without taking the low @ 1.5820 we may still be on for my elliot 3rd wave upwards. However if this level is taken out, my elliot wave is nullified.
It’s been a while now since I last posted as I’ve been working on other things, one of which has been to set up my live trading account. I am now live with a starting balance of £3,000 (actually £2,943.57 due to a few small losses, getting used to live trading now and not waiting for correct set-ups :38:).
My plan is to only trade E/U and G/U daily TF using weekly and monthly TF for market analysis.
I will only risk 1% of account balance per trade.
Basically I will be swing trading both trend and sometimes counter trend swings using price action and all the jumbled up information I have accumulated in my head.
Following my starting to go live, I am currently flat and will stay so until the new year.
Looking at the D1 TF below I am calling the last high as my elliot wave 1 top(but this may become higher yet!). Now if you remember, price must not go below the purple line on the chart if this is to stand. I have marked a yellow box where I will monitor price action but a lot of the time price retraces deeply into wave 1, but never goes below it’s low. If price does go below this level, I will have to re-assess my elliot wave count. As you can see, price has only retraced less than 50% of the previous up wave which seems likely there is more to come. We’ll have to wait and see what happens. Either way I will be looking for price to burst through the roof of the range next year as the trend is up.
From the weekly, we have a long term low put in place (lower red line) and a higher low formed around the 89% retracement of the up wave (red up arrow), indicating the trend is up.
Looking at the daily tf I have marked the retracement area between 62 and 78% where I will be monitoring price for a reversal. This is a retracement of the new up wave and it contrasts with my GU analysis, which is why I am unsure of my elliot wave count on GU.
That’s all for now.
I wish everyone who celebrates Christmas a happy one and a happy holiday time for all who don’t. I will resume after the holidays.
Happy New Year everybody, hope you are all well and rested after the holidays.
Well my market analysis didn’t quite work out as I previously had anticipated. I have re-analysed GU (attached)
COT seems to be at quite an extreme position with commercials net short with price now sporting a whopping pin bar at a significant support/resistance level, coinciding with a 79% retracement of a larger previous wave on the weekly. All good enough for me to place a short below today’s pin bar with 1% risk. This also fits in with my revised elliott wave analysis.
Just to update on trade. Was taken in last night @ 1.6220, half off @ 1.6187 33 pips still holding @ 1.6108 112 pips. Still looks like bears have control, will see what tomorrow brings.
From my trade above, I have some issues with my trading psychology:
1 Lack of confidence in my trades.
2 My squeaky backside!!
My lack of confidence meant I took profit at 33 pips, wise to do so, you may say. But this meant I had a pitiful lot size doing most of the work, resulting in a small win. The large SL was to blame for my risk to be within 1% of account balance and 91 pips was far too much.
If I had placed my sell stop as ICT would have done at the sweet spot of 1.6254 with a 30 pip SL @ 1.6284 my Lot size would have been 1 (more than twice what it was).
As price was being sold massively as witnessed previously by the buying climax resulting in the huge pin bar, the SL would not have triggered.
My squeaky backside comes from the early tp @ 33 pips. This is a normal tp1 for ICT students, but since I was working on the daily TF, it was too early.
Note to self: "Try for better entries and better tp’s.
No trade for me last week. Here is my review for this week.
It seems the commercials were responsible for pushing price up last week, looking at my elliott wave weekly below, there seems to be more upside to come before the push down at least to take out the highs of Jan.
Let’s see what happens, at least then I may get an entry!
GU seems to have been lifted by EU lat week as it seems to have already started it’s downward leg of the elliott wave to complete the retracement as shown below. Again, waiting to see an entry.
I must say this thread is becoming boring, apart from showing a picture of dancing penguins or something, I can only think of adding other currency pairs. Your thoughts?
Anyhow here’s the cot data and weekly chart. As you can see EU has made little movement last week, I’m still waiting for it to take out the highs before plunging the depths like GU.
Now, unlike it’s twisted sister EU, GU has made good progress downwards. Alas there were no entry points for me, so it’s another week on the sub’s bench. I’m waiting patiently for a retrace, so’s I can join the party.
EU has finally made it up to my elliott wave reversal level, perhaps next week will show some reversal patterns, but I’m keeping an open mind about that looking at the COT data and the fact of an inverted H&S showing on the weekly, price has already broken the neckline! If the end of rally line of 1.3894 is broken, that’s the end of my elliott wave attempts.
I got my retrace last week, but because I don’t tend to trade Friday afternoon’s, seems like I’ve missed the boat downwards… Darnit! I suppose I’ll have to see if I can jump aboard a pull-back to broken support level now acting as resistance on the H4. Seems like more downside to come next week.
Long pending order @ break of yesterday’s high (1.34750).
Reasoning: Upwards general trend, pull back and price now looking to re-join main up trend.
Target: Initially 1.3650 being the open of the bearish candle after the high.
This trade is purely a trial based on Mastergunner’s thread and what I have read on the subject of The Adam Theory.
