Personally, as we stand - well since the beginning of my thread i have been bullish on both the cable and fiber and i have seen no reason for my bias to change as of yet. As noted by the title, my bias in trading is arrived at by looking at the higher time frames - mainly the daily chart to achieve my bias. My bias on a pair is derived from both market flow and market structure on the higher time frame.
Simply, in a bullish market we should expect to see higher highs and higher lows, inversely, a bearish market will give lower highs and lower lows. So as we have been in a bullish market, i expect to see the market make new higher highs and not break any significant swing lows on the daily chart. For example, the recent Fiber market:
For me, those are the significant swing lows on the daily chart which i would not like to see broken if the bullish market structure is to stay in tact. The week i did no trading because i was unsure of the direction i was waiting to see if a swing low would be broken or if we would stay bullish, and we did. So as we stand, i expect to see 2 things play out - The cable and fiber to take out the previous months highs at 1.3171 on Fiber and 1.631 on Cable, and also the USDx to take out the pocket of stops here:
Thats pretty much it for me personally, i look at market structure and flow on the higher time frame by identifying swing highs and lows to determine which way i think the market would be headed - from that point i only take trades in that direction.
Im still yet to be able to show what i can do and sit and hold onto a trade for many hundreds of pips, but i know i will get one eventually.
Cant say i have much to show for my last 2 months progress on my live account, but i am marginally in the green in the moment so no complaints…
Those recent Daily LH’s (from 17 Sep) on the fibre seem a bit more deep than the HL’s when it comes to the descending-type triangle consolidation the pair finds itself in at the moment. Imo, the 1.3 to 1.305 could offer significant resistance and 1.282 support…? If 1.282 breaks convincingly (not a fadeout but sustained, below 1.28) then switch to bearish MS? (MF at least)
Not ruling anything out at this stage, esp with an EU summit this Thurs.
Thanks for taking the time to reply SandJ, much appreciated. So if your Bias is bullish i take it you wait for the market to present an opportunity to go long? NO counter bias trades.? IOW you wait to get in sync with direction Bias. Its very interesting that i have that same area on USDX marked for 2 reasons 1) 3 Previous swing lows around that level i.e significant support level.
2) if you pull a big from 14/09/2012 to 11/10/2012 you get a nice are of OTE with sweetspot converging with that 79.06 level.
and as you mentioned pocket of stops resting just below that swing point.
Also on daily today we have broken that 79.50 swing low to the downside, if we get a confirmation by a way of lower swing high does that mean that the market structure on daily usdx turned bearish?
Safe trading.
As Aesthetic said, a lower low breaking a significant swing point on the daily would put me in a bearish mind set, til that point, im backing the bulls!
Significant swing low broken by a few pips, the rally up is then confirmed as a longer term Judas as the OTE gives price the start to a long leg down…
In terms of what we have at the moment on the Fiber, i see the 2 significant lows at 1.2803, and 1.2824 as significant swing lows… If the bulls continue to ride this, i expect to not see those lows broken…
Anything is possible really Trint… I do agree that the recent lows set in on the Fiber were very deep, but at the same time, as long as they didnt take out the swing low i was looking at i think we are still poised to go higher…
Im not married to my bullish analysis, if i do see something soon to change my mind, ill be the first to admit all this was wrong and i think we could be going lower… But for now as we stand, i still feel we could be set to run the previous months highs…
You are spot on, i never had much luck counter trend trading - and to be honest a lot of my losses came from trading against the higher time frame bias. Not saying its impossible to do, because of course money can be made both ways, but just saying i personally find it easier to stick to hunting and looking for setups that will get me in sync with the direction i think the higher time frame is poised to go…
Personally, i like the looks of the swing low on the 5/10/2012 on the USDx, to me when that is broken we get a solid bearish market structure… As we stand, im not one for predictions but id say were hunting for at least the 78 level in the USDx…
Had to throw in as this is a place to really share my analysis and thoughts… I cant help but feel it that i could have been in on this up move so far. I had my direction and analysis spot on, but it was a dirty move by SM during the late NY session which saw all the stops be taken out and i didnt get back in on the move the next day (my own fault)…
As of today, i would have been 180+ pips up… Not going to sit here and beat myself up over it - or worse yet, chase it. But just wanted to show, even though i have very little to show in terms of actual results % wise on my account, my strategy does have potential, and eventually i will catch and hold on to a cracker of a trade
Not even sure i will get a trade this week, see what the market has to offer…
Seems like you’re pulling them out the bag though Sanj… about that post earlier, I’ll not post opposing side/counter-trend stuff from now on as it’s your thread and not the subject, it’s also a bit rude…lol.
Glad to see you are back SanJ. I haven’t contributed to your thread yet, but you did help me elevate my trading to the next level when you started this thread. Trading the 1 HR chart is pure gold.
Longer time frames are easier to trade. IMHO the smaller your tiem frame the more stressful trading is. You batlte slippage, broker fees and whipsaws. It’s not the life I would want.
