what;s a 2% spread rule?
Take the #1 currency minus the #8 currency.
So for 18-Jul, that would be 1.42 - (-1.33) = 2.75%
Thus, GBPNZD has a difference of 2.75% in the “short” direction. This is greater than 2%; therefore, it is a candidate for a trade. It doesn’t necessarily mean the trend will keep going, but it’s a candidate.
I think of it more that you can exclude anything < 2% because there isn’t a lot of strength on the move.
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Top Trade GBPNZD* held the top spot for the week hitting a low on Wednesday followed by two days of consolidation, nothing to suggest it could not go lower. The rest of the market seems to be waiting on the US Fed interest rate decision
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Hi Dennis, this is great information and shows on the trading in your charts. Could you give an example of how you calculate the strengths of the currencies versus each other?
it’s in one of his very first posts in this thread
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Top Trade NZDGBP hit another new low but finished with a pretty good reversal, one day is not a trend change but I would look for this to pull back a bit more then we will see how it reacts to overhead resistance
Thank you for posting this.
Are these the same numbers you are looking at for tomorrow? Love following your posts.
Great, thanks I found it and better examples further along; just wanted to understand the workings
Pull back in the GBPNZD* continued today and we see price finding resistance at the 200ma on the 1hr chart
I’m out of this trade, but do you think it would be a good time to get short again in as its hit the 200MA on a one hour chart?
Based upon SW analysis, EUR is taking over the #8 spot, and the difference between NZD and EUR is ~2.07 (reading taken an hour before close, so caveat emptor). GBPNZD is now less than the 2.0% metric, so you may want to consider that before going short.
2.07 for EURNZD is above 2, but looking at the H4 chart of EURNZD, I see it ranging. I’m not sure if NZD is finished tanking and will continue to gain strength, or if this is a real reversal. I personally am going to wait until I see some sort of confirmation.
Just my $0.02.
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GBP is no longer our weakest currency and completely reversed all gains in the GBPNZD* in just two days. But see what happened to this pair back in June, could we have a repeat of that pattern, I am keeping an eye on this one, price is above the 200ma on the 1hr chart, breaking below that 200ma would be a good entry point for another short.
We do have a new Top Trade EURNZD* I will use Wednesday’s closing price as our entry for tracking
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Under the “dumb luck” category:
I squeezed 143 pips out of GBPNZD long.
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Another all-time high for the Nasdaq and breakout move in the lagging Russell 2000, This means that the markets are in full risk-on mode but most of the currency market is in neutral, as evident in our SW rankings where only 0.29% separate #2 through #6
I will take Forex trades when I see a great setup but right now most the action is not in Forex
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Congrats, in this type of market take profits when you can
Agreed. I’ll be looking at other markets.
Hi Dennis,
Would you or anyone else on the forum know any good places to learn about the stock market or bitcoin for free that might have a course or good educational content? Since you won’t be taking trades until you see a great setup.
Cheers Shane
This is what a busted trade looks like, EURNZD gave us false hope with that big red candle off the 200 ma on the 1hr chart but the next two hours would have been painful if you were short and likely would have hit your stop loss. How you handle bad trades is more important than how you handle the winners,
On the plus side 5 of the last 7 trades have been up +200 pips, I will deal with a loser now and then with that kind of win/loss ratio
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