dennis you clearly have a depth of knowledge from expierence ive only been trading a year or so and after making some nice money last week i got bitten at the beggining of this week and have just sat and watched the markets
im in the uk we are basically just getting going in terms of daily deaths yesterday saw 563 in a day we are expecting 1000+ yet GBP is doing alright and i dont know why could you please educate me haha
This remembers many quotes from books about traders: that moment where ideas and fundamentals tell you something ans the price other. Well… those were some of the moment that Jesse Livermore lost money, so the price is really the king.
I’m with you, although it seems that Asia in general is set to rebound (China recovering while west world is burning in chaos), the charts are telling a different story. NZD, AUD are not recovering and are preparing for new lows.
I’ll not argue and will keep following the trend.
Up day for stocks and the currencies followed
between a worldwide pandemic and the Fed printing Trillions of worthless fiat money, the markets are just confused. I still think we have not seen the lows in stocks, no one believes China’s death claims, best to limit your trading in times like this
2 Likes
thankyou for the reply
im just going to sit back and observe for now then wait for the waves to calm.
Just wait a few days and you will see how the USD will weaken very much because there are a lot of coronavirus cases and a lot of people are unemployed, so later only buy EURUSD, GBPUSD and sell USDJPY, USDCAD and others 
If it was so easy… Just open 1 lot on each of these pairs and get to five figures then my friend.
I think USD is not up to simplifications. Many bad situations made actually dollar strengthen.
What do you think Dennis. You saw history more than us, how does the dollar react in this environment?
During the Global Financial Crisis, the dollar index went to the roof. In March 2009, when Down Jones reached the lowest level (6,400 !!), the dollar was on it’s highest valuations in years. Then in the next year it lost most of its value.
For a trend-following system, I would wait for this second part and then trade the weakness of the dollar. So far the crisis has just begun, so better wait.
Hi, Denis,
Your Strong/week analyzes are very good. I would like to do some backtesting with your SW analyzes. Maybe you could share your accumulated SW Excel history if that is not too much to ask.
Thank you in advance.
USD is still ( with JPY) a safe haven currency, during bad or uncertain times people tend to hoard Dollars and Yen, betting against the Dollar is betting against strength and is not what this thread is all about
2 Likes
Welcome to the thread, I do not share my excel sheets except for the screen shots. I would not put to much into back testing, markets are always changing and what worked 5 years ago my not work today
again, Welcome
2 Likes
Just a quick question, is there a reason the JPY is your dominant currency and not the US Dollar?
Yen is dominant in every currency pair, you can;t say that with USD. But you could use any currency as your dominant it will just require an extra math step, I like to keep it simple
AUD/JPY
CADJPY
CHFJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY
NZDJPY
USDJPY
1 Like
our newest Top SW trade pretty well sums up the whole market, we had the panic selloff, followed by a hope rally, and this past week was a return to reality
2 Likes
The rollercoaster ride continues, just as the market looks to be rolling over DOW opens up 1000 points and risk on currencies NZD and AUD are leading the way
Currencies are pulling back from extreme levels, stocks were up big today as the US prepares for what is likely to be the worst week yet for COVID19 deaths. They say the market is forward-looking and it seems to be telling us there is light at the end of this tunnel
In Presidents Trumps news conference today he said he will request congress to pass a 2 trillion infrastructure bill, that is the type of thing that could have markets back to all-time highs by Christmas, time will tell
4 Likes
The markets are sweating on the Infrastructure Bill being passed and passed soon, otherwise we will see the US Indexes (and Global) fall off a cliff… US Banks cannot generate much more credit.
The fatalities will hopefully peak sometime in April, early-mid May… over next 60 days the death rate in the US (and Globally) will be so shocking… it will rattle the Markets with negative results…
The aftershocks to world economies from lockdowns, systemic unemployment, financial annihilation and staggering loss of life will change the world as we know it… there is now no going back to normal…
It no longer exists…
3 Likes
I am sure the people of Hiroshima thought so, their economy was completely destroyed along with all their businesses and homes, Our homes and business are still standing and the same government that rebuilt Japan is now committed to bringing America back, Now there will be long term ramifications of all the debt but in the short term I see a repeat of the 1920’s
Hiroshima today
3 Likes
markets continue to contract, we see 1 and 8 are now less than 2% apart, stocks had a reversal, tomorrow should tell us how currencies will react
1 Like
How do you determine where you place the line?
what line, need more info to answer your question
1 Like