Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

CADCHF a month ago was our Top Trade to the long side, now it is our Top Trade on the short side, it only gave us 96 pips on the long side, maybe it will do better this time but be careful as the market is still in zigzag mode

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so the 200 MA is from H4, my i ask what time frame you look for an entry?

Hi Dennis - Nice analysis as ever, many thanks.

As I’ve mentioned in the past I do a rough and ready visual strong/weak analysis of the 8 major currencies based on their chart 50EMA slopes. I don’t say my shallow approach is better than yours, in fact it normally tallies closely on a day to day basis.

But recently, I am getting differing results as to the S/W pair, and this could be significant. What it suggests to me is that the market has gone out of its normal modes of behaviour. What I mean is that hardly any pairs are making daily price moves in the direction of their underlying trends. That score was only 41% last week and 39% the week before. So far this week it has been only 29%. I am severely limiting my usual trend-following trading right now.

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Several trending pairs have reversed, as seen in today’s newest SW pair …

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Thankyou brother

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What happened with USDCAD?
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Spikes as Bank of Canada (BoC) Tapers QE

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Yesterday the market zigged today it zags, NZD and Gold are rising together if that means anything

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It was just bait for the whales :whale:

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So was today a zig or a zag, I have lost track , in any case, I am sitting on the sideline until this market makes up its mind

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A lot of contradiction in this table, swiss and US opposite ends, EUR and GBP on opposite ends but the commdolls are together in the middle.

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Exactly. Currently, a market not to be trusted…

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Three unusual things stand out for me in long-term forex analysis right now.

Firstly, I’m getting different results from Dennis’s methods when I look at 50EMA slopes. The point s not which is right and which is wrong - normally the two approaches agree. So what I’m saying is the divergence is significant and a signal for caution.

Secondly, most pairs are moving counter their long-term trends. This has been the pattern for several weeks.

Thirdly, I see sibling currencies moving in opposite directions. So CAD is extremely bullish, scoring 7-0, while USD scores 0-7. AUD is down at 3-4, while NZD is 6-1. CHF is 2-5, while EUR is 5-2.

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Correction, misread my own spreadsheet - the forex charts showing with-trend price movement over the prior 2 weeks was 41% and 39% respectively, the week just finished it was again 41%.

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CHF held on to #1 all week but it is not making us any money as CHFUSD and CHFGBP are barely in the green and CHFCAD is still negative

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Strong day across the board for Yen pairs , but looking at AUDJPY, we have seen strong days before but where is the follow-through

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Finally, some follow-through today, EURJPY is breaking out

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Same story, Top Trade USDCHF is still moving sideways

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What do you mean zig zag?

one day up, next day down,