Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

Good to know that you have a new daily thread (used to follow you dailyfx - till they closed it down).
Have been following your videos, but those are only weekly. looking forward to the trade-a-long…

Hi Dennis, thanks for the update.

What are your thoughts on USDCHF?

Yes them pulling the plug on dailyfx was sad as we had a great following there, glad you found me

USDCHF is the inverse of the EURUSD, The Euro is stronger then the Swiss Franc on both YTD and SW rankings, so you will see a bigger move in the EURUSD, The Euro also tends to move to extremes, so when the Euro is strong, more times than not the Swiss will be strong but not as strong as the Euro, same for weakness, when the Euro is weak, the Swiss will be weak but less so. Case in point, this year the Euro has had several runs at both #1 and #8, while the Swiss has not been strongest and only weakest for one day this year. It is for this reason I seldom trade the Swiss Franc

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I see, thanks for the insight! Explains why I am also long EUR.

Thanks for the reply, in the meantime I have come to the same conclusion about conservation of momentum :slight_smile: Momentum on CADJPY has run flat, but I’m not in a rush to sell it until it features on the other side of the stong/weak table!

Following the Canadian Bank rate hike price of CADJPY has been consolidating sideways, this looks like a bullish flag, I am looking for this to break higher, but with USD even weaker then Yen, I like CADUSD , both are good trades, we will see which was better in the next week or two

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Not much happening today, Top SW Trade short USDCAD was down as much as -57 pips, which means our trade was up +57 pips

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Top Strong Weak Trade CADJPY has been moving sideways for 8 days now, but I sure like today’s candle, as long as we do not get a daily close below 88.00 I like this to go higher

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Looks like everything was up against the Yen today, Top SW Trade USDCAD inched ahead to +60 pips, we may have to endure a little bit of a pull back before this one gets moving

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Thanks Dennis. Once i’m allowed to post screen shots, i’ll share some trades i’ve been taking.

All the best.

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Top SW Trade AUDJPY has tested our faith by being down as much as -100 pips, but a strong candle today has it back in the profit range, like the song says, " you have to know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em" this one may prove to be a hold yet

as I noted two days ago Top SW Trade CADJPY was ready to break to new highs, and as we see last two days that is what has happen

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Here is a updated recap of Top SW Trades from June, We had 5 new Top SW Trades, Had you been aggressive and set your take profit target at 300 pips with stop moved to break even once up +150 , you would had made 900 pips on three trade, broke even on one, and lost -150 on one, for a profit of 750 pips. Not too bad!
A more conservative approach would had been a profit target of +150 pips, doing so would had 4 winning trades and one looser, for a total profit of 450 pips, still not too bad

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some consolidation at the top as NZD surges, USD returns to it’s losing ways

Long term Top Strong Weak Trade surges, knocking on door to a 400 pip gain

With so many Top SW Trades raking in the pips it is hard to keep up with them all, so lets start with the newest, USDCAD short, topped +100 pips today, Next AUDJPY, this one went negative -100 pips but now in the positive and that pin bar reversal today looks like a good signal of more to come. Last we have YTD Top SW Trade EURUSD, this one is up +300 pips from my July 12th post.

These trends will not last forever so enjoy them while they last



Hi Denis

I have been reading through your forum and the older one here in BPips. I am interested in the analysis. Can I ask why you chose the JPY for the baseline currency? Thinking about it, I can see it is a non-comdoll, stable politics, militarily neutral and a safe haven when the milkshake hits the fan. And interest rates are eternally near zero. But I am interested to know what are your reasons. I am going to start analysing in this manner to see if I can make it work.

Another question - I guess if the Yen is always zero, and all the others are negative, that is because the Yen is the strongest in the basket right? An then trading long Yen is considered?

Thanks for this info by the way
Geoff

Thanks for this Dennis, it’s a gold mine of opportunity.

I’ve a question myself, which is probably already answered by your recent results.

How do you feel about summer trading? Do you continue as normal? (Looks that way!) I’ve heard a lot about how price can be very erratic due to low volumes etc.

cheers,
Ben

Sorry, running a bit late tonight, I would need a ten minute video to cover all that happen today. Roller coaster ride in US stocks had big effect on currencies, New Top SW Trade AUDCHF as the Swiss continues it’s divergence from the Euro, Market is consolidating so our winning run might me over for the near term.

New Top SW Trade AUDCHF , this is not one I normally trade, for tracking we will use today’s close of 0.7682 as our entry point

before yesterday’s selloff , Top SW Trade NZDUSD hit a new high of +421 pips, it has been a couple of months since my last SW Trade topped +500 pips, maybe after this pullback NZDUSD will be the next