Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

as I noted two days ago Top SW Trade CADJPY was ready to break to new highs, and as we see last two days that is what has happen

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Here is a updated recap of Top SW Trades from June, We had 5 new Top SW Trades, Had you been aggressive and set your take profit target at 300 pips with stop moved to break even once up +150 , you would had made 900 pips on three trade, broke even on one, and lost -150 on one, for a profit of 750 pips. Not too bad!
A more conservative approach would had been a profit target of +150 pips, doing so would had 4 winning trades and one looser, for a total profit of 450 pips, still not too bad

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some consolidation at the top as NZD surges, USD returns to it’s losing ways

Long term Top Strong Weak Trade surges, knocking on door to a 400 pip gain

With so many Top SW Trades raking in the pips it is hard to keep up with them all, so lets start with the newest, USDCAD short, topped +100 pips today, Next AUDJPY, this one went negative -100 pips but now in the positive and that pin bar reversal today looks like a good signal of more to come. Last we have YTD Top SW Trade EURUSD, this one is up +300 pips from my July 12th post.

These trends will not last forever so enjoy them while they last



Hi Denis

I have been reading through your forum and the older one here in BPips. I am interested in the analysis. Can I ask why you chose the JPY for the baseline currency? Thinking about it, I can see it is a non-comdoll, stable politics, militarily neutral and a safe haven when the milkshake hits the fan. And interest rates are eternally near zero. But I am interested to know what are your reasons. I am going to start analysing in this manner to see if I can make it work.

Another question - I guess if the Yen is always zero, and all the others are negative, that is because the Yen is the strongest in the basket right? An then trading long Yen is considered?

Thanks for this info by the way
Geoff

Thanks for this Dennis, it’s a gold mine of opportunity.

I’ve a question myself, which is probably already answered by your recent results.

How do you feel about summer trading? Do you continue as normal? (Looks that way!) I’ve heard a lot about how price can be very erratic due to low volumes etc.

cheers,
Ben

Sorry, running a bit late tonight, I would need a ten minute video to cover all that happen today. Roller coaster ride in US stocks had big effect on currencies, New Top SW Trade AUDCHF as the Swiss continues it’s divergence from the Euro, Market is consolidating so our winning run might me over for the near term.

New Top SW Trade AUDCHF , this is not one I normally trade, for tracking we will use today’s close of 0.7682 as our entry point

before yesterday’s selloff , Top SW Trade NZDUSD hit a new high of +421 pips, it has been a couple of months since my last SW Trade topped +500 pips, maybe after this pullback NZDUSD will be the next

We get a one day pullback and all 7 active Top SW Trades are up today, Oil is trending higher which should keep the CAD near the top of my rankings

Hi Geoff, sorry for delay in responding

I use the Yen as my base because it is always listed last against all other majors which makes it a natural common denominator, USDJPY, EURJPY , GBPJPY, … and so on

Yes the Yen will always be zero in my rankings making any currency in positive stronger then the Yen and any currency showing a negative will be weaker than the Yen

Hi hope this helps

Hi Ben

The rule has always been " sell in May and go away" as months June through September historically under perform with August and September being the worst, But with so much Central Bank interference, and so many “experts” calling for a market crash, normal has been turned upside down, This market ponzi scheme will crash at some point, but will it happen next month or 5 years from now, no one knows

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Here is a recap of my current Top SW Trades, we have been on a great run. 7 Active SW Trades and only one is negative

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Hi Dennis,

Thanks for this amazing thread.

Can you please advise how you decide to take an entry into a trade? Is it as soon as you see a new Strong weak pair or you apply other technical filters or analysis into it?

Sorry, if you have already covered this in some of your posts in this thread.

Hi vaibs,

I am tracking the Top SW Trades, but leaving just how to trade them up to each trader as to their trading plan,

The simplest way is to just take a trade entry after the close of the daily candle that gives us a new SW pair, others might choose to wait for a pullback to support, then go long ( or short) , I have gotten post from people who are taking day trades using my Top SW Trade. Lots of ways to play these, but as long as you are trading with the trend, your odds of a winning trade are better than a coin toss, which is going to profitable in the long run.

I hope this helps and happy trading

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We start the new week with some shuffling among the top three, and EURCHF will be our latest Top SW Trade, this has had a monster 5 day move, how much is left. I also like EURUSD on any pull back

Some words of caution, we have had a new SW trade the last 3 days, if you look back to February we had 5 straight days of new SW trades, 3 of the 5 did not get above 100 pips. When you start seeing new trades pop up every day that is a sign of a market consolidating and we do not always know where the strength and weakness will be when trends resume so be careful, Also the last three SW trades have us short the CHF, If the Swiss was to reverse here that would give you three losing trades. If I were taking all three ( EURCHF, CADCHF & AUDCHF) I would reduce my normal trade size so not to be harmed if we do get a reversal.

Winning at this game is all about managing your risk

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Pull back day for all our Top SW trades, current Top SW Trade EURCHF was not spared but was able to remain in the positive

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After a one day pull back, our Top SW Trade EURCHF answers doubters with a strong up move today

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All Yen pairs are down today, but the 4 most resent Strongest currencies are holding up the best, no reason not to see this down day as a place to look for new entries, only one to be cautious with is CAD, energy looks to be rolling over here and that will not help the CAD

No change in Top SW trade, JPY seems to be on a slow trend back to the Top, CAD weakens as Oil prices pull back

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