Yen gave some back today, a bounce in over sold Aussie
US stocks had a good day so maybe we get one last rally before summer, that would be good for the AUD
By far USDCAD is our best trend, it all started early January with a final big lunge higher followed by an engulfing candle down. In the last 15 weeks only one up candle and we are starting off week 16 red, from the high this move is already 2000+ pips and I have no idea how much lower it goes
USDCAD weekly chat
another beautiful trend is EURUSD, we have a very strong double bottom and current up trend started last week of November with an engulfing candle coming off support, not as fast moving as the USDCAD but I love that stepping pattern giving us higher highs and higher lows. We are now trying to breakout of the consolidation, a weekly close above 1.1500 should clear the way for price to move higher, that 200 week moving average up near 1.2500 looks like a good first target
price is extended so I need to see a pull back to get long
EURUSD weekly chart
we had some big counter trend moves today, all the comdolls got slammed, moving markets mean new setups.
if you had been in the top Strong Weak trade AUDJPY, you would had scored 200 pips today
we finally get that breakout move and follow it up with a pinbar reversal. This is why I do not buy breakouts and never trade against daily chart pinbars. Price was extended so I am going to let this one pull back and wait for a good price action signal to get long
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I saw this yesterday and should had posted it, when you get this nice stepping pattern lower like we see in the grey box, that is a great looking trend and what we want to see. Then look at the yellow box, we are still trending lower but no longer stepping, instead we start getting a bunch of red doji’s grinding lower. when you see this a pullback is likely to happen soon. If you use indicators this is when you would see price divergence from the indicator. I will watch for these in the future and try to post them before the big reversal hits
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Thanks Dennis!
hi Dennis great material thanks mate.
Tks Dennis for valuable guidance, so we wait for buy entry from H1 Frame , is it correct ?Tks
NZDUSD is not a pair I normally trade but this has a great stepping pattern, since February we have had no less then a dozen chances to buy 50 pips below the 200 ma and sell 100 pips above the 200 ma ( on 1hr chart), we are 60 pips below the 200 ma as I type this so not a bad place to buy, a safer entry might be to wait for a 1hr candle close back above the 200 ma. , this way if price keeps moving lower you don’t get in the trade.
not much happening today, yen pulled back a little, I am a yen buyer but it needs to be on an ideal setup with reasonable risk
You can use any time frame you like, I like buying on pullbacks and the 200 ma on the 1hr chart has worked for me. the chart I posted for NZDUSD is about as good as you can gets. Just make sure your buying the strong and selling the weak. For long term trades taking entries at the 200 ma on the daily chart can keep you in a trade for months.
I noticed that the 1hr chart for USDCAD looks broken, with USD breaking the 200ma. Do you still plan to trade long CAD and wait till it reverses to the 200ma?
I shorted the USDCAD last night as price was hitting the 200 ma on the 4hr chart. It started out okay but has now pulled back. If I get a 4hr candle close above the 200 ma., I will exit and wait for a better setup. Sometimes it takes a couple failed tries before you get an entry that works
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On the day weakness in EUR and CHF, other then that it was a pretty quiet day, US stocks were mostly unchanged
Dear Dennis
I still confused bw H4 and H1 Frame with MA200, in H4 Frame the MA200 over the Price line ( USDCAD) while H1 Frame the MA200 below , so i dont know to choose short or long.
Pls help clarify with thank ( i am quite new )
Regards
Here I am looking at EURUSD on 1hr chart, is 1.1400 where this pullback ends, NFP is due out shortly so this is going to move but which way. Still a coin toss, but if it breaks below 1.1400 there are going to be a lot of stops sitting there so this could move lower quickly but will likely not last
For my own trading I start with Weekly chart, then move to daily, I want to see no conflicts in trend between weekly and daily. I only want to take longs in pairs trading above the 200 ma on daily chart and only short those below the 200 ma.
From there I drop down to the 4hr chart, this is where my Strong Weak ranking comes in and I do not want to be long a weak currency against a strong. My rankings will tell you that or you can just look at a 4hr chart, right now you can see by my rankings EUR is stronger then USD and if you look at the 4hr chart you will see EURUSD is trading above the 200 ma. I would not want to be holding longs if price breaks below the 4hr 200 in this example.
Finally we move to the 1hr chart, I never go lower then this. The 200 ma on the 1hr chart is like an over bought over sold indicator, you can see when price gets a long ways above the 200 ma it always falls back to it, same if it is a long ways below. I have found trading bounces or crosses of the 1hr 200ma a good low risk high reward place to take trades.
This takes practice so keep at it
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NFP just posted and first move is up, lets see if it holds
