it was a bit surprising today to see the USD jump back up, that did not help my EURUSD trade, we still have a very tight consolidation with a logjam in the middle
Both EUR and NZD are getting stronger, and the spread between the two is tightening , that is not what we want to see in a SW Trade
Yen makes all the way down to the 8th spot for just the second time this year and the first since January, Yen is still strongest year to date so donāt be surprised if Yen weakness is short lived
Pullback in EURNZD is running out of steam, might be time to look for an entry on long EURNZD
It is amazing how a surge in prices at the end of the day can make quite a difference in the values and even the ratings.
You did yours just before the end of the trading day, I did mine just after the close.
Hi guys,
Is it just me or have the easy pips we were winning with SW dried up in the last two months?
I believe that is not the methodās fault. I think the markets have just slowed down. Traders rely on volatility to profit after all.
Not saying itās the methods fault at all. Itās been a while since the spreads consistently exceeded 2%. A lot of consolidation lately. Patience is required during these times.
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Long term SW Trade NZDUSD* is back on top and looks ready to move lover, EURNZD may still prove to be a winning trade
A surge in the commodity currencies, we clearly are back into a risk on market, Do you follow the FANG stocks ( if not we need to talk) Amazon, Fakebook, and Google at all-time highs
Please tell us more. I havenāt traded stocks since 1986! I donāt like the theoretical unlimited downside, unlike currencies.
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Hey D, wat up. I had this idea floated to me like 3 days ago. It goes like this. One of the ways to hedge against a down market (DOW, NAS, etc) is Long MXN by shorting EUR/MXN. Iām not recommending, thought you might get a kick out of it. Kinda seems like the same as being long the Bolivar. I am still Short Yap Rai, and expecting YUUUUUUUGE profits.
The Ever Off Topic _bob VIPER
the problem is these correlations just donāt work like they did 10 years ago, a central bank can change monetary policy and blow up your trade. It use to be go long USD in a down stock market, and short USD in a up market but quantitative easing has blown that trade to pieces. anyway be careful those central banks are not our friends
If you had simply invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 back in 1986, held, never sold, and reinvested your dividends. Your account would be worth $215,800 today. and you can improve on this by investing 50% of your money in the top growth stocks, today that would be the FANG stocks
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We ended the week right where we started, Top SW Trade EURNZD is back in the Positive, Just your normal summertime low volitility market, this is why most Pro Traders take a vacation this time of year
Hi Dennis, thank you for sharing your analysis with us. As i can see you are using the SMA200 in the D1 chart as well as the 34SMA. Do you prefer using SMAĀ“s for all your Fx pairs? IĀ“m already long time looking for the right combination of MAĀ“s but iĀ“m still not sure which one makes the most sense.
Best Regards, Markus
Hi Markus
I like to keep my trading and analysis simple, Simple moving averages are the most common used so that is what I use. The 200 sma on the Daily, 4hr and 1hr chart have proven to be the most reliable for Forex chart technical analysis, That 34 sma you see on my daily chart is a proxy for the 200 sma on the 4hr chart.
hope this helps
Dennis
Ok thanks a lot Dennis. Do you prefere to enter the trade from bouncing off the 200SMA in H4?
a bounce off the the 200 ma in Daily, 4hr and 1hr chart s can make for a good entry point
EURUSD outlook
In the short term ( for me short term means daily charts) EURUSD is range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1850 and on Friday we had a bullish pinbar following a pullback that could send prices higher this week, But looking at the weekly chart below, we could be looking at a long term Head and Shoulder top, when you see one of these H&S form over a year+ they tend to be very powerful.
So how to play it, if you are long now following Fridayās pinbar stay long, we could see a 300 pips move higher, I will be looking for the right shoulder to form in the 1.2000 to 1.2100, if we get there that would be a good place to take profits on any long position, nothing says have to get all the way to 1.2000 so protect yourself, at that point You could take a small short position understanding that until we break the neckline near 1.1500 this trade is not a confirmed H&S, Breaking that neckline would be the place to short if not already in
Hello Dennis,
Please double-check your percentage for NZD/JPY for Friday, July 13.
Presently, you show it as -0.05%
As I calculate it, the percentage should be -0.16% (rounded).
Here are my inputs to your formula ā Price = 75.92, and SMA200 = 76.04
Your platform might show slightly different prices from mine, but the difference between your calculated percentage and mine should not be as large as it is.