Two points to make about this article.
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Kudlow is a shill and the 2Y10Y is important
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The 3m10Y just went inverted.
There are so many setups that have formed this week. I have posted some analysis on a number of these setups. We will get things started with analysis of the US Dollar Index.
DXY / US DOLLAR - Bullish Setup - Inside Bar Pin Bar Fake Out
SILVER / SI / SLV - Bearish Pin Bar
NZDUSD - Bearish Pin Bar Setup within Pennant
AUDUSD - Bearish Pin Bar Setup
XLE - Bearish Inside Bar Pin Bar Fake Out
EURUSD - (Bearish) Inside Bar / Pin Bar Fake-Out
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USDPLN - (Bullish) Inside Bar / Pin Bar Fake-Out within Triangle
SPY / ES - (Bearish) 2 Bar Reversal
Alright folks. I offered 8 trade ideas this weekend. All 8 are in the green as of today.
- Long DXY
- Short AUDUSD
- Short NZDUSD
- Short EURUSD
- Long USDPLN
- Short Silver
- Short XLE
- Short SPY
I had a pending buy order in GBUCAD but it unfortunately was never triggered. Good analysis, but just couldnât get the fill I wanted.
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If there was even any doubt, candlestick/price action trading is king.
Amen to that lol
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I just ordered this beast. Iâve never spent this much on a computer, but it is going to be a pretty sweet rig.
With the new 18 core i9, I bet it can do some mean multi-threaded back-testing.
Thatâs an awesome rig, Krugman. Congrats!
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DXY really taking off now. Was there ever any doubt?
I found out today how professional the TradingView team is. Needless to say I wonât be posting analysis from TV anymore. Iâm not sure what the best alternative is, maybe ToS charts?
Sorry to hear you got banned, Krug.
To be fair, pointing fingers and saying âeveryone else does itâ doesnât seem like a proper excuse. And Iâm not trying to justify the modâs actions. From your side of the story it does seem like heâs a twat.
Anyway, I bet you can grow and prosper without TV. Stick to your guns and hustle on.
It wasnât a case of pointing fingers. The point of that comment was to say that whatever rules this mod is applying to me, he is not applying to anyone else. In which case he is at best a very poor mod, and at worst is purposefully using his mod powers to silence select people. The house rule is that you cannot dump charts in a chatroom without comments or that are off topic. I posted a DXY chart in a precious metals chat room and my post included comments, and it was immediately removed. Others were posting charts with commentary and not being moderated, which is how it should be since that is not breaking the âHouse Rulesâ. But what makes it worse is that there were people spamming commentless charts and this same mod was doing nothing. I messaged him and said âhey, if you are going to be deleting my posts which I believe were not breaking house rules, you should definitely be deleting these spammer posts which are clearly breaking house rulesâ. I was banned shortly after saying that.
Letâs for argument sake say that my post violated house rules (trust me, it didnât), then there needs to be a consistent application of those rules. Otherwise this is just a case of a mod weaponizing the house rules against whoever he feels like. Then the second issue is how the mod acted when I privately questioned his modding behavior, which was basically like a 12 year old. That is just pathetic childish behavior for a website that charges more than a lot of other truly professional finance websites.
My ban was temporary and my account is already unlocked, but I wonât be going back, just on the principal of the thing. I reported the mod to TV support and it has been crickets, not a single response back. I have already tested out publishing charts using ThinkorSwim. Itâs not as nice as TV but it gets the job done, so I think I will be using ToS going forward.
I have closed out 4 positions today, all winners. I now have just 1 trade still open. I updated my study and also added some new metrics to help analyze my overall performance. The first thing to note is my extremely high profit factor. That is simply due to the fact that I have only taken a single loss of 0.3x, and the rest are winners. The next thing to note is that my winners are achieving an average RR of 1.4x. My average loss, which right now is just a single loss, is -0.3x. My win rate stands at 90%. Another thing to note is my profit curves ultra high R^2. That means that up to this point my profit curve is very linear without a lot of random variance. For someone not trading with milk money, this is important to me.
What does all of this mean? For starters I will state the obvious which is that one only needs a 1:1 RR with a 50% win rate to break even. Nobody wants to do all of this work to simply break even, but even that is a better outcome than most traders will ever achieve. With my 1.2 RR and 90% win rate, if I maintain anything even remotely close to that in the long run, I should see long term profits. The next point I want to make is that it would now take 12 consecutive losses at maximum loss for me to just break even. I hope I donât see that, but since 2013, I have certainly had half-a-dozen or so loss streaks before, so I am never going to discount the possibility.
Realistically speaking, I am going to start accruing more losses over time and expect some of these numbers to worsen. My long term goals are a PF above 3, r^2 above 0.8, win rate above 50%, and positive RR above 2. I am exceeding everywhere except in the positive RR category. While I can only take what the market gives me, I do know there have been a number of occasions over these 10 trades where I entered prematurely and exited prematurely. I would likely have a RR above 2 if I would have been more strict on my entries and exits. I have been working on my mechanics and rule set to hopefully improve this numbers. This candlestick study is also there to help me figure out the best mechanics for my trading style.
I would like to add some more metrics to my study. If anyone has any suggestions I would love to hear them.
I would also like to run these metrics on each 10 trade chunk. So at 100 trades I would have 10 groups of trades, each with their own metrics. The goal there would be to see how things of progressing/regressing over time.
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