Trend Following All Markets With Unlimited Upside And Limited Dowside

Rayner,

So do mean by “another breakout setup” one of a different peroidicity or another one of the same?

A trader could put on a piece with a break of a four week range and then another with the break of a ten week range. Thus, he is scaling in with breakouts of ranges of different periodicity.

Or, a trader could put on a piece with the break of a four week price range and then once the stop has been groomed to some level of profit, put on another piece at a later break of the four week price range.

Which do you do?

-Adrian


Enter at tripple cross and large bar. Enter at top of candle and stop loss at bottom of candle.
Enter 1% at 81.504
Enter 1% at 84.516
Enter 1% at 88.865
Enter 1% at 93.706
Stop loss hit at 91.926 close all positions.
Entry 1 1042 pips
Entry 2 740 pips
Entry 3 300 pips
Entry 4 -170 pips
Total of 1912 pips

Scotty,

How did you select these entry levels?

-Adrian

Price action. I use a combo of price action and moving averages. I wait for price action signal than the blue am crosses the green and I enter on the next candle and the stop is placed at candle low or high. Than I usually let it run and exit when the blue ma crosses the red or my trailing stop is hit.

logged on my old account, gosh

fartist

Hey Adrian,

I usually enter on the 4 hour, so i would wait for another setup on that time frame. If i go down into a lower time frame, i would be scaling in too fast and aggressively, not that it’s not possible.

I usually enter on pullbacks or breakout so i will wait for these setups on the 4 hour time frame. I would need to be up at least 3R before considering any scale ins.

Rayner

Rayner,

OK Got it. Cool. I am doing the other concept. For example:


I shorted EUR/JPY on Jan 12th on the first pip below the low of the 9th which was a new break below the 40 week MDMA. Then, I wanted to put on another piece with the break below the 52 week price range on the 23rd, but I didn’t have it in my risk budget. After the price rose above that level on the 11th, 12th, and 13th of February, I had the risk budget open to put a new order to short another piece at that same level. That order was filled on the 16th of February.

If you pan back and look at the 52 week price range:


You can see that the break of the 52 week range toward a new direction was significant at least because it was only the third of such breaks in a decade. What I would like to do is to let the stop on one of these two pieces follow the 4 week high until the ten week high passes below that 52 week range break and then follow the ten week high until it is taken out at a profit. Then, the other piece can sit at break even until the 20 week high passes below it and then it can follow the 20 week high until it is taken out at a profit. At least for now, shorting this pair has positive rollover, so sitting through sideways periods can also be profitable.

Have you thought about this sort of multiple periodicity approach to scaling in and out?

-Adrian

No not at all never come across it to be honest.

Hey Adrian,

yes i’ve actually thought of it. But i’m usually more aggressive when my trades are deep in the money and thus i will implement such scale ins on a lower time frame.

I usually enter off the 4hour charts, however let’s say i’m up 10R on a trade, i wouldn’t mind going down to the 1 hour or even 15mins for setups. At the same time i will risk lesser than 1R on these trades to keep my risk management in check.

But to even consider drilling down to a different time frame, my first criteria is always to be very much in the money first.

Rayner

Aside the Euro smash that’s going on, sugar may be interesting to watch as well…

Price is approaching multi year lows and there will be traders, institutions & corporations trying to get long near it.

But what happens if price trades further down triggering their stops?


Rayner

Rayner ,
I see you risk Risk ® = 2 * ATR . How much reward you target ? is it 2R , 3R …or what ?

Hi Rayner!
I want to start following the trends and your thread is awesome. Thanks for sharing it.
Which moving averages do you use? Fast MA 5 slow 20? Fast 10 slow 100? Or which?
My medium trade is daily and I’d like to enter long when fast MA cross over the slow one and viceversa and always waiting for entering the next candle (the next day).
Thank you in advance.

Hi Godzilla,

I don’t have a fixed reward. It could 1 to 2 or 1 to 50 i honestly don’t know what the market will give.

I simply take what the markets offer.

Rayner

Hi oscard,

Thank you for your interest and kind words!

I use 20 & 50 EMA but i don’t use crossover for entries. If price test the 20 & 50 repeatedly, that’s where i will look to enter my trades.

Rayner

NFP has rattle the markets last week, but at the same time it presents great trading opportunities! This week I will be covering Eurusd, Gold, 10 year treasury and much more.

I hope you have enjoyed this week’s market analysis. As always, comments are welcomed and encouraged. Cheers!

Rayner

Rayner, suppose you entered on a uptrend and on 50 EMA test …say you find after your entry it started rising then it falls below 50 EMA and stop you out . …Now ,would you re-enter again if it starts rising again and goes past 50 EMA towards upside ?

hi Rayner, thanks for starting this thread & taking the time to do the videos, blogs etc, seems a good & appealing way to trade.

what do you think of this set-up?
GBPAUD - it seems to be in line with the long & medium term direction, entering on a pullback on the 4h…

Weekly


Daily


4h - entry on Stochastic Hook + rejection pin


does that look like a reasonable set-up to you? (Before we get into trade management etc…)

cheers

Hi godzilla,

That’s a good question. Yes i would re-enter again, but likely by trading a breakout instead.

What i usually do is to have a buy stop at the recent high and get long on it once more, that’s if i still like the trend and in terms of relative strength it’s one of the strongest markets.

Rayner

Hi Kechel,

thank you for your feedback, glad you liked it.

Yes i agree GBPAUD is still overall in an uptrend. But in terms of relative strength, it’s not the strongest currency pairs i would trade.

I’m looking at eurusd, gold and gbpusd right now… they’re much trendier.

Rayner

Another pair i’m looking at… USDDKK


For those with huge USD exposure, you may want to reduce risk on subsequent USD trades.

Rayner