Hi guys
I have been running a version of the Forex Phantom Daily crossover system for a while now, about 2 months. My account starting balance was $190 and now it is $2000 so it has been very successful 
BUT here is my problem. Seem like every other week I have some big losses. I use a TSL derived from the ATR. My big losses come from crossover of the moving averages and then the price reverses as soon as I enter the trade. Because this is a trend following system my TSL is rather big.
So what I am looking for is some kind of a filter, a conformation to take the trade. I believe this system could be very good if I could get rid of the big losses.
What is the system?
I didn’t find crossing MAs to be great. I don’t find any indicator alone to be great.
Do the losers coincide with following the longer term trend ie weekly up, signal on daily down? That’d be my filter.
As of now I am using the 200 EMA as a trend filter. Trades are taken on the D1 and h12
ok, but do they go the direction of the Weekly trend when the signal is against it. You’re not giving any trades or times, but my guess is the signal is from a retracement
The weekly trend is to far away. When my biggest winners on the h12 is about 300-400 pips it doesn’t make sense to look at the weekly charts. The 200 EMA on the h12 should be enough for the relevant trend
Of course it matters, if weekly is up and your h12 signal is short, it’s only a matter of time until it goes up in a big way. MA are often seen as a signal for trend continuation, so if you get a signal against the long term trend, it’s very possible that it’s about to turn on you
No, the weekly is to far away. One has to look at the trend which is relevant for the timeframe your system is trading. The trend on the 12h is basically the same as on the D1, but just a little bit faster in reversing, usually just one bar. To look at the weekly trend does not make any sense. The trend on the h12 can easily go a 1000-1500 pips against the weekly trend
ok, let me try to show with charts. You’re using EMA(4) and EMA(1) applied to close and trade the cross, correct?
Yes that is correct. And the 200 EMA as a trend filter. The 2 EMA are put on the MACD so they are smoother than standard EMA´s
Yea, I understand. How is the 200 EMA used? That might essentially be doing what I’m saying
Just as a basic filter, above the 200 EMA only take long signals and belove the 200 EMA only go short
Have you got a chart where recently it didn’t work? I have an idea, but want to check out a ‘bad’ trade first. I’d use the 200 EMA differently
My idea would still be long on that, however I’ve backtested some strategies with breakouts and found that very few pairs continue a break out above the high/low of the last 50 days. You could use a Donchian channel to show this. If the candle closes outside a channel, then a reversal is slightly more likely than a continuation. This isn’t true on CADJPY or GBPJPY
Have been trying with the Donchian channel a while back. Did not work for me. The market is to choppy for that
Just like to add this, lookin back 2 months I can see that all my winners come from trading the crossover on the D1 timeframe. My problem with trading the D1 is that their are to few signals. Strange that I didn’t see that all my profit comes from trading the D1 chart 
Did some quick math on the D1 journal over 2 months. Winning percentage was 50%, average winner 184 pips and average looser 64 pip.
So all in all this system is profitable, will of course only trade the D1 timeframe from now on.
Crossovers are rubbish as trend trade entry signals. They are rubblsh on every time frame, on every market, with every combination of MA durations.
Wow what an intellectual comment