They do say if you put 10 Economists in a room, you will get 15 opinions.
When speaking to “Traders” - the situation is similar.
Personally, i cannot trade the M5, M15 charts successfully, because my head doesn’t have the faciity to work that way. - I can pick tops and bottoms ok, but have proved several times, I get trades in exacty the WRONG direction, often to the exact pip. Now many years after my first trade, I am getting better at it, but would still lose chunks of money most days.
Some people are suited to “Day trading”, some are not - but you are in the best position to know what charts and periods you are comfortable with.
I do recommend that you DO try it when you happen to have a day off though. Either in Demo, or just by writing your bets down on a piece fo paper to start with.
That EURUSB chart is quite useful though and it is one that I use. However, if you move to the daily and look back into last year, what I see is that last week we had a double top and last November we had a double bottom with a retest of the August Lows. (In my view double bottoms and tops don’t have to be exact)
I do recognise that there is a case to be made for drawing a trend channel, sloping upwards for the current period.
My opinion is that we may retest the “double bottom” I just mentioned. That is 400 pips away and allows you to use a stop-loss of 150 Pips or so . Now on micro lots, that would give you a maximum risk of say $15 for a potential reward of $40. [NOTE - I am NOT advising this as a bet, although I am currently trading it on GBPUSD (Demo only) and have been criticised for doing so. ]
Anyway, that bet will cost me around 2-4 pips - whereas if you take 4 bets a day on “INtra-day” and lose 2, win 2 making a profit or loss of 6 pips on each, you will lose 5-8 pips in “Spread” - you have traded 50% but have lost the equivalent of a whole bet just in “Spreads”. This repeats every day. - You need to be much more successful on “day trades” - just to stand still, whereas on longer timeframes your spread costs are much less.
AS a person who works full time, I think your opinion that you should “Swing” are correct.
Your chart may or may not be correct. It is important to understand that your opinion is your opinion. That is what will make you money or cost you money. There is no valid reason for people to say your chart is wrong. The best they can do is present an alternative for consideration.
Last November, I was looking at that USD chart and expecting it to make a double bottom. If you look back - EVERYONE here was saying it had made a “Head and SHoulders” and was a definite down-bet !
Sometimes it is very scary to defy all that opinion and take the “Contrarian -bet” You will be surprised how hard it is and how easy it is to just “Agree” with what all the others are saying. So easy … But remember 95% or more of people expressing these opinions are desined to lose money and many will blow up their accounts comppletely.
SO why do what they do ?
The most important thing I can say to you is YOU decide, You Bet your own opinions. Treat “Consensus” with a huge amount of suspicion.
Be careful mate - you are here asking for “Approval” of your opinion - You don’t need that ! Have your own opinions and trade them. There IS NO “right way” which everyone agrees with because by definition any “waY” whaich we all aprove of, is just plain WRONG !
Not very encouraging maybe - But you’re not here for approval, you’re here to learn how to take money off us !
