Trend Runner

[crottsinabox]

the 4 trades I was in yesterday definitely took a turn against me. I went to bed at 12:00am EST and by the time I woke up they were as follows:

USD/CAD Open [B]LONG[/B] at 12:00PM EST at 1.0334. Went to 1.0392. Moved stop to BE +3, then up 2 more after another 20 pip move. Price came back while sleeping. Stopped out at +5.4 pips.

AUD/USD Open [B]SHORT[/B] .9676 at 12:06PM EST. Moved stop to break even before I went to bed (12:00am EST) Price pulled back as well . Stopped out at break even. +0.1:p

GBP/USD Open [B]SHORT[/B] 1.5037 at 12:02pm EST Never moved far enough to move the 100 pip stop. Watched it a bit more carefully as the next few candles weren’t that strong. Decided to close manually for -44 pips. I dont have a lot of screen time as far as price action and watching what the candles but I am learning. Made the call to close it. Would have went a lot further than -44 pips had I not

USD/CHF Open [B]LONG[/B] .9814 at 12:00pm EST. I went immediately against me haha. But the next candle it started to rally back up so I left it alone. While sleeping it rocketed back down and stopped me out at the full 100 pips. 102 to be exact. I find that a quick move like that might cost an extra pip or two as the broker software is trying to execute the close as fast as possible. No big deal though

I had to re-read the 30 pip rule a few times to get the hang of it so now that I know it I will look for those entries as well. All 4 entries made above were made after candle closed above resistance or below support(opne of next candle of course). Really clear candles and signals as I was just trying to get the hang of the system. At one point I was +80 pips and tempting as it was to close right then I let the trades ride. Overall, I think the system is great and the trades ran exactly how ILZ explained they would run in the possible scenarios. Yes the one trade lost 100 pips but he said it was bound to happen. I just checked my charts again at 12:45pm EST right when I got home from work and didn’t see any entries at the moment but keeping my eyes on a few pairs. I am only trading the pairs ILZ has listed at the moment as well.

AUD/USD super trend red and price below sma but last 2 candles closed had a strong bullish push behind it. will wait to see if it drops back below support (or 30 pip rule) or continues back across sma

EUR/JPY All over the place haha. I see a couple candles with really long wicks and super trend is red and above sma. Maybe my lack of experience isn’t letting me see something but this is no go for me right now

EUR/USD super trend blue but below sma. Price action (either inside up formation or 3 bullish candles) suggests that price may be moving back up. Just my best guess here with my experience. No go for me

GBP/JPY super trend red but price floating around sma. will wait to see what happens the next few candles

GBP/USD Price action again suggest a change in direction. Overall trend is still down but I will wait to see if price comes back closer or breaks back through support.

USD/CHF super trend blue and above sma but once again PA suggest a trend reversal. However, I see a few big wicks so I will wait to see where price goes over the next few candles

USD/CAD again with the PA ugh haha. Overall trend is still up though looking back so it could bounce off one of the previous supports.

Sorry for the long reply. Just trying to get involved in here so I can get my head in the game. The past few weeks it seems like everything I learned is starting to come together as far as screen time,price action, reading candles, indi’s etc…

Please feel free to offer constructive criticism or comment on my trades and analysis.

Peace

[donsls]

Trades @ 9 p.m. EST, 23 May 2013
a/u sell @ .9675
g/u sell @ 1.5081
u/c buy @ 1.0328

Pip difference for all pairs with the next s/r is more than 30

[faltu666]

Hi,

On a/u there is support on daily from Jun2012, that is where the price stopped. Do you take higher tf S&R into consideration?

[donsls]

No, I didn’t look at higher tf. I just stick to the 4H. So far a/u and g/u are in the - and u/c is up by 12 pips (unsecured)

Hi,

On a/u there is support on daily from Jun2012, that is where the price stopped. Do you take higher tf S&R into consideration?

[madhatta]

Just like to say thanks to Ilza, I have read both this thread and the one on FFactory, nice strategy and MM I am going to test. Very good support on both threads from yourself and others which is what new and old traders need.

[gynexx]

hi all,
I have the following idea to protect profits and to minimize losses:

• when I take a trade, I place a TS (trailing stop) = 25 pips;
• if price takes me out in the first 8 hours after entry and I lost, I place a pending order at the same price of entry and after entry the same TS = 25.
  This strategy seems to work, but who can backtests this with a specialized software?

[gynexx]

I forgot,
You may improve these rules.

[emanontrader]

Reading this and saving this page for reference. I look forward to testing this strategy out.

[cheva282]

Hello everybody!!

I have a doubt since this topic started, Im just confussed and need somebody who can explain me (with a picture) how the 30pip re-entry method works?

I have read many times: ''if prices closes the same color of the trade to be taken and is at least 30 pips away from (any?) S&R"

Since Im spanish I dont understand it (sorry :rolleyes: ), please could somebody explain it to me with a picture, I have 90% of the system learnt I just cannot understand how to make this work… Im just waiting for a candle close above/below the S or R line and only if this happens I enter a trade, but this ‘‘30 pips system’’ seems like a way to start trading the re-entrys before, am I correct?

Thanks you all in advance

Esteban

[Poseidonn]

[B]USD news coming up guys - consumer confidence[/B]
Protect whatever trades you have opened.

From what I gather, it is likely that they will be positive for the US dollar, or at least in line with the expectations, but you never know.

Edit: got my alarms wrong :))) consumer confidence is tomorrow…sorry guys…

[mikeylikesit]

[B]USD news coming up guys - consumer confidence[/B]
Protect whatever trades you have opened.

From what I gather, it is likely that they will be positive for the US dollar, or at least in line with the expectations, but you never know.

Edit: got my alarms wrong :))) consumer confidence is tomorrow…sorry guys…

Yes. Bank Holiday today in U.S. Poseidonn, thank you for all your inputs on this thread. Also to others who have assisted in clarifying this strategy.
Ilzalama, thank your for this method. Been trading for about ten years. My path is so similar to yours. I recently “found” a system that is profitable, also a trend folowing system, but alas with backtesting yours is a little better, especially because you trade more pairs; smoother equity curve. Great job!! Those who have not done this so long may not realize how your return is so rare on a live traded account. Thank you and I will be moving over to this system from mine. Hope to contribute in the future.

Mike

[yumyumfx]

Hi Guys,

First of all, thanks a lot ILZ for sharing your system, I’m new here and I believe your experience is really valuable and really helps to structurate the trading (espeaceally your MM system).

Second point, just a warning, backesting the system I’ve found an example where ranging market can pretty much hurt profits (EURUSD - July/AUG 2012) :

So ok, entry a, e and g are probably not valid because too close to the SMA (anybody can confirm ?).
The others ones are valid right ?

Any suggestion on how to better detect this kind of ranging ?
I guess this case should be covered by fundamentals (not sure what happens in August 2012, I guess it was holiday and market tends to range during holidays, even if it doesn’t show up in the cyclopip’s article on summer tendencies (cannot post URL yet :)) . Any suggestion of what technical indicator could be used there ?

Let me know your thoughts and keep pipin’

[mikeylikesit]

@yumyumfx

Hi Guys,

First of all, thanks a lot ILZ for sharing your system, I’m new here and I believe your experience is really valuable and really helps to structurate the trading (espeaceally your MM system).

Second point, just a warning, backesting the system I’ve found an example where ranging market can pretty much hurt profits (EURUSD - July/AUG 2012) :

So ok, entry a, e and g are probably not valid because too close to the SMA (anybody can confirm ?).
The others ones are valid right ?

Any suggestion on how to better detect this kind of ranging ?
I guess this case should be covered by fundamentals (not sure what happens in August 2012, I guess it was holiday and market tends to range during holidays, even if it doesn’t show up in the cyclopip’s article on summer tendencies (cannot post URL yet :)) . Any suggestion of what technical indicator could be used there ?

Let me know your thoughts and keep pipin’

Well August is always crap shoot. August can drive a trader crazy. With a trend catchg system those numrous small losses are expected to be way offset by a good cuaght trend. I would avoid trding at all in August, as hard as it is to resist, and at least 2nd two weeks in December and maybe first week in January. Just too many market drivers on vacation.

[2plus2]

@yumyumfx

Hi Guys,

First of all, thanks a lot ILZ for sharing your system, I’m new here and I believe your experience is really valuable and really helps to structurate the trading (espeaceally your MM system).

Second point, just a warning, backesting the system I’ve found an example where ranging market can pretty much hurt profits (EURUSD - July/AUG 2012) :

So ok, entry a, e and g are probably not valid because too close to the SMA (anybody can confirm ?).
The others ones are valid right ?

Any suggestion on how to better detect this kind of ranging ?
I guess this case should be covered by fundamentals (not sure what happens in August 2012, I guess it was holiday and market tends to range during holidays, even if it doesn’t show up in the cyclopip’s article on summer tendencies (cannot post URL yet :)) . Any suggestion of what technical indicator could be used there ?

Let me know your thoughts and keep pipin’

Found the same problem… several times. The losses are huge in ranging markets. The recovery is so slow with BE+3.
I don’t have a solution yet, to be honest. Maybe ILZ has, but he seemed vanished. Problem is that we are working with a reversed average risk/reward. Losses can be easily 70-100 pips, but average win is typically BE+3/+6. I have to admit that I do not find a win ratio of 85%. Take your example, this is not uncommon (e.g. look at recent events). And please, do not start yelling “just avoid ranging markets!”. Sure, then you end up avoiding big setups, etc. etc.
This is not even considering the fact that ILZ is entering without the break of S&R (his recent words); this amplifies even further the count of losses in ranging markets.
Have someone found a good, or at least reasonable solution??

ILZ: sorry to stress it, but it would be of great help if you could provide a simple table of your mentioned previous trades. This way I/we can understand the effective R/R and various statistics behind that.
Also, some example of trades in ranging market would help us all.
Thanks!

[donsls]

cheva282,
Please see the below screen for an example (USD CAD). You could see that the price is above 200MA and blue line. Price is also above the support (green dots). Looks like a good trade. BUT look at the current price (Marked with A) and the price at the next resistance level (Marked with B). Now calculate the pip difference (B - A). Which is 25. Since the difference is less than 30 pips we don’t take this trade. Hope this helps.

@cheva282

Hello everybody!!

I have a doubt since this topic started, Im just confussed and need somebody who can explain me (with a picture) how the 30pip re-entry method works?

I have read many times: ''if prices closes the same color of the trade to be taken and is at least 30 pips away from (any?) S&R"

Since Im spanish I dont understand it (sorry :rolleyes: ), please could somebody explain it to me with a picture, I have 90% of the system learnt I just cannot understand how to make this work… Im just waiting for a candle close above/below the S or R line and only if this happens I enter a trade, but this ‘‘30 pips system’’ seems like a way to start trading the re-entrys before, am I correct?

Thanks you all in advance

Esteban

[cheva282]

@donsls

cheva282,
Please see the below screen for an example (USD CAD). You could see that the price is above 200MA and blue line. Price is also above the support (green dots). Looks like a good trade. BUT look at the current price (Marked with A) and the price at the next resistance level (Marked with B). Now calculate the pip difference (B - A). Which is 25. Since the difference is less than 30 pips we don’t take this trade. Hope this helps.

Thank you donsls, I understand what you said, but Why you dont take that trade? and also what is the common sense of taking the trade if the were 30 pips window (long in that case) when price didnt even breakout trough the Resistance line (confirmeation of a more reliable long trade)

[Esser]

Thank you donsls, I understand what you said, but Why you dont take that trade? and also what is the common sense of taking the trade if the were 30 pips window (long in that case) when price didnt even breakout trough the Resistance line (confirmeation of a more reliable long trade)

It’s because according to the money management rules, you have to move your SL to BE+3 when your trade is 30 pips in profit So, if there is at least 30 pips to the nearest support/ressistance level, you know that you will be able to at least secure a bit of profit, should price bounce from a certain level.

[cheva282]

It’s because according to the money management rules, you have to move your SL to BE+3 when your trade is 30 pips in profit So, if there is at least 30 pips to the nearest support/ressistance level, you know that you will be able to at least secure a bit of profit, should price bounce from a certain level.

Hi BMW this is not what I was asking, the SL to BE+3 I understood that, This is about the ‘‘other’’ 30 pip rule that ILZ aplies to re-enter a trade. please really carefully

[veyron]

Hi BMW this is not what I was asking, the SL to BE+3 I understood that, This is about the ‘‘other’’ 30 pip rule that ILZ aplies to re-enter a trade. please really carefully

Hi cheva282 (and hi everyone since I am new here).

To me that is directly related. According to the rules, the only way for a trade to be at least BE is for it to first reach a 30 pips profit. Knowing that the next S/R is more than 30 pips away is just a factor that increase the probability of hitting that 30pips profit point (where SL is changed to BE+3) and secure a bit of profit.

If you go long with a resistance that is 20 pips away, the price might just bounce on it and reverse. In that case, you did not reach the 30pips objective, you did not secure any profit and the price action is potentially playing against you now and might be playing against you until it reaches the next support (which should be where your SL is placed). The way I see it is that in that case you might have more chance reaching your SL (at the support level) than reaching the spot where you secure at least a BE+3.

I think that I got that right but someone can probably confirm as I am really new to forex.

[cheva282]

Hi cheva282 (and hi everyone since I am new here).

To me that is directly related. According to the rules, the only way for a trade to be at least BE is for it to first reach a 30 pips profit. Knowing that the next S/R is more than 30 pips away is just a factor that increase the probability of hitting that 30pips profit point (where SL is changed to BE+3) and secure a bit of profit.

If you go long with a resistance that is 20 pips away, the price might just bounce on it and reverse. In that case, you did not reach the 30pips objective, you did not secure any profit and the price action is potentially playing against you now and might be playing against you until it reaches the next support (which should be where your SL is placed). The way I see it is that in that case you might have more chance reaching your SL (at the support level) than reaching the spot where you secure at least a BE+3.

I think that I got that right but someone can probably confirm as I am really new to forex.

Thank you Veyron!! [B]can somebody please CONFIRM this Veyron just said? [/B]just to make sure.