Triple threat exit strategy

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
422

Trading live on Oanda Fxtrade based on gmt, trading eur/usd, gbp/jpy, aud/usd, results to date (30-july->10-aug) are as follows:

TT: -1194.5 pips

TT w/ base x2: -1336.2

TT w/ RT x2: -1795.3

ITT: +896.7

ITT w/ base x2: +988

ITT w/ RT x2: +1089.2

Another week closed. Im done for the week on tracking. TT had a couple TP that helped bring it out of the red a bit. It’s not looking good so far this month. I have traded manually using sup/dem and entries from ITT to recoup almost all of my drawdown on my live account.

I have to thank you, Pipwoof. Even if TT doesn’t work out, the theory behind the system has dramatically improved my own trading. I’ve gone 10 winning trades straight so far this week. I’ll crunch the numbers on how many pips I was able to drag later.

I have toyed with the backtest results on Oanda mt4, tradersway mt4, and finfx mt4 with both ea’s. The results look promising. Now, if the live results would match, that’d be awesome. I have been trying to stay pretty mechanical with the system and it has shown that the judgment calls go a long way in the end results. I have seen that I would agree with all of the ones you have made Pipwoof. Leaning toward the preservation of capital seems to be best.

423

I would like to mention to those that find the triple exit strategy as the Holy Grail that this is a strategy taken from other forex traders just google: the following and you will see

trading syste, Daily Breakout, trading system, 100 pips daily, trading systemasian breakout…

for God sake we take someones strategy and changing a little bit number become ours?..

pipwoof…sorry, but we should be aware as a community what’s the truth…I don’t think that anyone here disagrees…If anyone want to ask me about serious strategy I 'm open to change ideas…

424

gbp/jpy
8-1, sell 122.20, -30, -30, -30
8-2, sell 121.71, -30, -30, -30
8-3, buy 122.61, -15, -15, -15 *
8-6, sell 122.62, +35, +35, +35
8-7, buy 123.04, -30, -30, -30
8-8, nt
8-9, buy 122.97, -20, -20, -20
8-10, sell 122.37, +35, +10, +10
closed trades: -375 +160 = -215

aud/usd
8-1, sell 1.0474, -25, -25, -25
8-2, sell 10445, -30, -30, -30
8-6, sell 1.0543, -10, -10, -10 *
8-7, buy 1.0593, -45, -45, -45
8-8, sell 1.0531, -20, -20, -20 *
8-9, buy 1.0582, -20, -20, -20*
8-10, sell 1.0551, +25, +25, 0
closed trades: -450 +50 = -400

eur/usd
8-1, buy 1.2330, -30, -30, -30
8-2, buy 1.2336, +35, +35, +10
8-6, sell 1.2371, -5, -5, -5 *
8-7, buy 1.2429, -30, -30, -30
8-8, sell 1.2374, be, be, be *
8-9, sell 1.2324, +45, +20, +20
8-10, sell 1.2265, -10, -10, -10*
closed trades: -225 +165 = -60

gbp/usd
8-1, sell 1.5623, -30, -30, -30
8-2, sell 1.5528, -50, -50, -50
8-6, sell 1.5617, +40, +40, +40
8-7, buy 1.5653, -30, -30, -30
8-8, nt
8-9, buy 1.5677, -25, -25, -25
8-10 sell 1.5603, -25, -25, -25
closed trades: -480 +120 = -360

eur/jpy
8-1, sell 95.74, -30, -30, -30
8-2, buy 96.46, +25, be, be
8-3, buy 96.98, +25, +25, +25
8-6, sell 97.12, +25, +10, +10
8-7, buy 97.69, -45, -45, -45
8-8, sell 96.81, -20, -20, -20 *
8-9, sell 96.55, -20, -20, -20*
8-10, sell 96.30, +30, +30, +5
closed trades: -345 +210 = -135
five pair portfolio august to date: -1,170

  • judgment call affects outcome

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

425

pipwright, i appreciate all the work you’ve done to try to wring something out of this. glad you came out on top. the itt approaches basically fade the method. keep your eye on them and be sure we aren’t in a short-term phase, where tt starts yielding again and itt won’t.

next week i will be trying to find time to review my data history to see if tighter stops or be stops might be helpful for the method. when we hit a rough spot, it is always tempting to change, fit the system to the spot. could be necessary, but we also have to keep in mind that eighteen months is more of a track record than two weeks.

426

I concur. That’s why I am tracking both variations. If we are in a ranging market, I’ll keep entries in mind for ITT. If the market moves, TT will be in play. Im working out details to a hybrid that gets the best of both. Historically, to my experience, this time of year is the most difficult to trade. I am looking to mid September for a change of season in the market. Maybe that’s where we’ll see TT work it’s magic.

427

As many traders as have been, do you think there’s anything that hasn’t been tried before? Most of todays ‘strategies’ are but variations on a past theme. Until they figure out how to polish this crystal ball in my closet, all any trader can do is find a set of rules and methods that help them to be consistently profitable.

I don’t think I’ve ever read a post on this thread about possession. That this is “his” or “her” system. Pipwoof had a theory, did some homework, and put it out there for open and honest constructive criticism. Many have contributed and more will. If it helps only one trader to learn how to be a better trader, was it not a success?

Everyone knows, or should know, that there’s no holy grail. Even the big boys take losses.

428

well put Pipwright. This guy did a good job he should not be critisised. If anything, most of the systems only show entry signals but this emphasizes on conservative exits

429

Really enjoyed reading this extension to daybreak. Keep up the great work. Maybe it will help us to join the 5% of traders who actually make money. JP

430

thanks for detailed analysis pipwoof. Attached EA has things rectified. It moves stoploss to nearest quarter (only after TP is hit) on AIR & RETRACE pos. The jumping stoploss issue while using breakeven is also resolved.
Daybreak_v1.2.zip (22.5 KB)
Could you test it out again and let me know how it goes. ??

Also regarding the judgement call - what triggers your judgement call.?? weekly/monthly pivot.?? strong resistance.?? or just simply a gut feeling.?? Is there anything in it that can be coded…??..thanks…

431

-1195.5, -1336.2, -1795.3 are these real losses with real money?

432

You mean -1170 pips losses in Aug so far? I think the losses is ridiculous.

433

find another thread.

434

Thank you DineShydv for your work on the EA! Quick question, what does the EA do when its placed on a broker that doesn’t have a Sunday Candle? When that input is set to false, is the Monday trade set to Friday’s daily extreme?

Thanks,

-Armstrong

435

dinesh, don’t know how much more patience you have, but i do appreciate what you’ve shown so far. regarding judgment calls, i’ve tried to pin down what i’m thinking at the time and how it might be coded. i seem to make calls in three situations and i think we might mimic those mechanically.

one is when i see a move in our favor that gets close to that first tp level, but doesn’t hit it. then it stalls and starts to turn against us. i am pretty quick to pull the trigger on that one at small profit or b/e.

a second place which has not been firmly defined is when position 1 does hit tp. my original direction was that each trader use their own discretion to decide if they want to set stops on positions 2 and 3 at a quarter that locks in a small profit or would they prefer to set at a more distant quarter and risk a few pips hoping for a favorable move.

a final judgment area has been when the original stops are set at extremes. that is, our initial stops will always be between -25 and -49 and i am more sensitive to losing -150 than i am -75. so, if our stops are resting where we could lose -35, -40 or more on each of three positions, even if prices haven’t already made a run in our favor, i get anxious to get out. i find this especially true on those days when prices just manage to take us in, then start the other direction right away.

now, as i think about these three situations, is there anything about a -35 trailing sl, no profit level required, couldn’t handle in much the same way as what i am calling judgment? let me think. example, in the first situation, prices move in our favor +15 pips. a reversal would hit a trailing stop not requiring a profit level and leave us at -20 per position. that sounds pretty close to what i’m doing.

second situation, position 1 hits tp, positions 2 and 3 are in profit between +25 and +49. a reversal backs up to the -35 trailing stop and takes us out somewhere between -10 and +14. that also sounds like what i am doing.

third situation, we’re just talking about an initial s/l of maybe -25 to -30 instead of using quarters. we could dance around the flame here with me talking about how i am more inclined to jump out on mondays and fridays, but to get this codified in an expedient manner and have it make sense, maybe we just try an inital s/l of -25 and a trail at -35 and be sure we don’t require the one trailing to begin only after a certain profit is reached.

i think that protects us in the three situations where i was watching price action and making executive decisions and, hopefully, it will be fairly simple to code. there may be one hard part. there will be a point at which we need to inactivate the trailing stop and let the quarters control. imo, this is the way we hang on for the bigger moves. it seems logical to curtail that trailing sl when positions 2 and 3 reach their second profit quarter. tell me what you think.

when position 1 hits tp, it is closed and the trailing sl protects 2 and 3. at this point, if air gets taken out, so does retrace at the same place. next, an additional move in our favor takes air to another profit quarter. it may be appropriate here to let the quarters govern. on a reversal, air would come out with a profit and retrace might come out with a small loss.

i have no idea if i have created a coding nightmare. if so, just tell me and i’ll go back to the thought process and see what else i can come up with. meantime, current ea comes much closer, but still has minor bugs. here is where we are:

Compare dinesh and woof.jpg700×487 69.4 KB

hope it all makes sense. thanks for your support.

436

You are right on it. This parameter makes sure that Monday’s trades are based on Friday’s high/low. If your broker provide sunday (daily) candle then set it to true and EA will ignore sunday candle.

437

Most of the thing that you have put can be coded fairly easily. And below is my approach based on your input:
Lets first try to limit our losses. I have seen many trades where TP is 26 and SL is -49. For example, a BUY at 1.2524 will have TP at 1.2550 and SL at 1.2475. (Sl almost double than TP) It doesnt make any sense, isn’t it.?? So for limiting stoploss, I have below suggesstion

  1. Lets say that -> SL pips should not be more than TP pips. In above example, since SLpips is more than TP pips, so SL will be changed to TP pips i.e. -26.
  2. Second option can be to put a max SL of no more than 30pip per trade. So on every trade our SL will be between -25 & -30.
  3. Once TP is hit, move SL on AIR & RETRACE pos to nearest quarter (already implemented).

We should be extra cautious till TP is not hit. (judgement call logic)
4. Till TP hit, if we get 3 candles against us on 30mins ( maybe 15min) chart(SL yet to hit), we will close all pos. If price is above open then make all pos B/E.
5. If TP yet to hit and price has moved 80% of TP then make all pos B/E. Or may be make all pos B/E after 25pips…

I think we have too much buffer for AIR & RETRACE positions. SL on AIR pos will move to next quarter after price has moved 50+ pips. For example, if current SL on BUY is 1.2525 then SL will more to 1.2550 only after price is 1.2575+. But suppose if price goes opposite after 48/49 pips then we will loose all. And same for RETRACE. If price moves opposite after 90pips then we will loose all. So lets put a trailing stop and logic should be: After TP hit, move AIR & RETRACE to nearest quarter. Then put 25 trailing stop (10pips step)on AIR and 50 trailing stop(20pip step) on RETRACE.

Let me know what you think and if i missed out authing…thanks…

438

dinesh, sorry, had sunday candle set to “true” thinking that meant “yes, i have sunday candle.” will rerun with “false” and update the numbers.

439

sunday candle set to “true” means that “yes, i have sunday candle.” and “ignore it”. This is done to make sure that Monday trades are based on Friday’s high/low only.

440

dinesh, ignore the results above. i misunderstood the sunday option. since i have sunday data, setting the option to “false” gave me the correct entries. i will take time later to review your recommendations, but do appreciate you putting your good mind to work on this. here are our new results:

Compare dinesh and woof.jpg700×471 66.3 KB

you see that my judgment call on 7-2 did not come out as well as the ea staying in the trade. it is good advice to protect ourselves early on and give it more room once in profit.

look at the trades on 7-9 and 7-16. once that first tp is hit, the air and retrace positions should be moved to what i originally called “near breakeven.” i think this should mean a stop that results in a small profit in case of a reversal. for example, the trade on 7-9 enters long at 1.2290. don’t pay attention to my results, that was a judgment call. for the ea, we see it trade to 1.2325, resulting in tp being hit. at that point, air and retrace stops should be moved to 1.2300. this gives them 25 pips wiggle room, but locks in small profits on each position. on 7-16, we go short at 1.2233. tp is hit at 1.2200 and we should move stops on air and retrace to 1.2225.

do you think we do any better when we take both trades when two are hit in one day? it seems that we often end up with two losses, sometimes both serious losses. i do see times when the second trade profits to make up for the first loss, but i’m thinking we may prefer to cancel a second entry. what do you think?

thanks again. good luck.

441

dinesh, i have always based my monday trades on the two bars of data usually provided by ibfx on sunday. that’s why i set the option to “false.” it gave me the correct entries according to the way i have previously tested. because i have limited sunday data, i put in the requirement for it to move +/- 11 instead of the usual +/- 1. i have observed that mondays seem to either meander around, going nowhere, or start early to make a solid move. some brokers don’t provide any sunday data, so going back to friday may be an option for some traders. i have had good results basing off sunday, but using cautious judgment. in july, monday trades were 2, 9, 16, 23, and 30, resulting in +230 overall.