Triple threat exit strategy

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
71

Tried it today with some live small test amounts for AUD/USD and I must say I was blown away!!!
I wasn’t even trading in front of the computer to test it but just through my blackberry
Ticket Date Expiry Pair Price Stop Loss Take Profit P/L
984648438 July 22 18:16:55 2012 EDT AUD/USD 1.03508 1.0376 1.0325
984648440 July 22 18:16:55 2012 EDT AUD/USD 1.03508 1.0376
984648443 July 22 18:16:55 2012 EDT AUD/USD 1.03508 1.0376
984677408 July 22 21:02:14 2012 EDT AUD/USD 1.03248 1.0325 1.3000
984968724 July 23 11:04:31 2012 EDT AUD/USD 1.02752 1.0275 3.7800
985005438 July 23 13:03:48 2012 EDT AUD/USD 1.02685 1.0300 1.0260 4.1150

the Retrace was manually closed because i had to focus on something else and it was closed around 1.0268

Nice work!!!

72

thank you. this was an exceptional day with the portfolio pulling +440. we don’t often see that straight move around 100 pips across four pairs, but it is nice to be able to grab some of it when we do. thanks for the post. good trading!

73

haha my GBP JPY got stopped at 121.50 but i’m not losing hope coz this seems to be pretty good and i know already that not everyday is Christmas :slight_smile:

74

pat, appreciate your positive attitude. good thing we booked +440 yesterday, 'cause today was not so spectacular.

gbp/jpy short 121.11, stopped out at 121.50, -40, -40, -40
aud/usd short 1.0241, tp hit at 1.0200, +40, both air and retrace stops set at 1.0225, locks in +15 and +15
eur/usd short 1.2065, after a low of 1.2041, stop on all three positions set at 1.2075, risking -10, -10, -10
jpy/usd, no entry today

75

This is a great system that matches my lifestyle…if you won’t mind, I’ll also experiment on putting the stop losses near to the next pivot point below(above) entry point if long(short). In an isolated case that would have prevented the stoploss on the GY. Pivot point to be placed using yesterdays candle as well to be consistent. (Just a wild idea)

76

with more trades losing than winning for the past couple of days, thought it might be a good time to provide an update for the month. will do another when july ends.

gbp/jpy
7-2, sell 124.99, +15, +15, +15
7-5, sell 124.22, -30, -30, -30
7-6, sell 123.82, +55, +55, +55
7-9, buy 123.53, -30, -30, -30
7-10, sell 122.99, be, be, be
7-11, buy 123.56, -5, -5, -5
7-12, buy 123.98, -25, -25, -25
7-16, sell 123.15, +40, +40, +15
7-17, buy 123.36, +35, +10, +10
7-19, sell 123.07, -20, -20, -20
7-20, sell 122.89, +10, +10, +10
7-23, sell 122.25, +25, +75, +75
7-24, sell 121.11, -40, -40, -40
7-25, sell 120.94, -30, -30, -30
7-26, buy 121.69, +30, +80, +80
7-30, sell 123.25, +25, +75, +25
7-31, sell 122.20, -30, -30, -30
closed trades thru 7-31: +250

aud/usd
7/2, sell 1.0223, -5, -5, -5
7-5, sell 1.0258, -15, -15, -15
7-6, sell 1.0240, +40, +40, +40
7-9, sell 1.0181, +5, +5, +5
7-10, buy 1.0213, -15, -15, -15
7-11, buy 1.0244, +30, +5, +5
7-12, sell 1.0177, +25, +50, +25
7-16, sell 1.0218, -10, -10, -10
7-17, buy 1.0259, +40, +15, +15
7-18, buy 1.0319, +30, +80, +80
7-19, buy 1.0373, +25, +25, +25
7-23, sell 1.0323, +45, +45, +20
7-24, sell 1.0241, +40, +15, +15
7-25, sell 1.0208, be, be, be
7-26, buy 1.0336, +35, +85, +85
7-30, buy 1.0493, +5, +5, +5
7-31, sell 1.0474, -25, -25, -25
closed trades thru 7-31: +800

eur/usd
7/2, sell 1.2638, -15, -15, -15
7-5, sell 1.2506, +30, +105, +230
7-9, buy 1.2290, -15, -15, -15
7-10, buy 1.2324, -25, -25, -25
7-11, sell 1.2233, +30, +30, +5
7-12, sell 1.2211, +35, +10, +10
7-13, sell 1.2165, -10, -10, -10
7-16, sell 1.2233, +30, +30, +30
7-17, buy 1.2289, -40, -40, -40
7-19, buy 1.2306, -30, -30, -30
7-20, sell 1.2227, +25, +25, +25
7-23, sell 1.2104, be, be, be
7-24, sell 1.2065, -10, -10, -10
7-25, buy 1.2138, -15, -15, -15
7-26, buy 1.2170, +30, +105, +80
7-30, sell 1.2285, +35, +35, +35
7-31, buy 1.2330, -30, -30, -30
closed trades thru 7-31: +400

gbp/usd
7-2, sell 1.5660, -15, -15, -15
7-5, sell 1.5571, +45, +45, +95
7-6, sell 1.5497, be, be, be
7-9, buy 1.5497, -5, -5, -5
7-10, buy 1.5534, -35, -35, -35
7-11, buy 1.5548, +25, be, be
7-12, sell 1.5483, +30, +10, +10
7-13, buy 1.5516, +30, +30, +30
7-16, sell 1.5565, +40, +15, +15
7-17, buy 1.5654, -5, -5, -5
7-19, buy 1.5668, -20, -20, -20
7-23, sell 1.5588, +35, +60, +35
7-25, sell 1.5484, -15, -15, -15
7-26, buy 1.5551, +25, +125, +150
7-30, sell 1.5712, -10, -10, -10
7-31, sell 1.5623, -30, -30, -30
closed trades thru 7-31: +445

portfolio total for july: +1,895

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

77

Just proves how great this system is!!!

80

pw,

Great data…keep it coming! I see that [B]AU[/B] accounts for half the profits over the roughly past 3 weeks of trading. Interesting to me, is that all 3 AU TP levels are nearly equal in performance (not so much for the other pairs). Someone new to your concept could easily start with AU TP1, and progressively add the other currency pairs and TP levels if/when they have time to monitor the trades. The only problem with my suggestion is that with this limited number of trades, these results may not mirror the longer term results. However, your earlier data does show AU as the leading equity builder from 1-10/6-12.

Just my 2 cents… :wink:

81

interesting idea and maybe a good approach for those who can’t keep an eye on their stops. the position 1 tp trades came to +235, 3x = i make it +705. but, there are some judgment tightenings on initial stops that would reduce this profit, i.e., 7-2 (mon), 7-5, and 7-16 (mon). instead of -5, -15, and -10, initial stop on 7-2 would have been about -25, on 7-5 -40, and on 7-16 -45.

so, let’s take the a/u profit to date +655, add back in the judgment call stops on three positions (-90) = +745, then, take out what would have been the initial fixed stops, -330 = +415. this is not a bad month for someone who set it up before going to bed, didn’t have to get up at all during the night, went to work the next day, and came home to plus pippage.

anyone who would consider this needs to do some homework, of course. the more losses a pair has in a month, the more important these judgment moves will be. this month, each pair had only two or three of those. but, without those calls, just glancing, i’m not sure the other three pairs would have been profitable. they were slim, anyway. would we have been fortunate enough to be in the right pair?

something else to keep in mind when we’re looking at overall equity between just db and db with tt. those yields are very different. a/u shows 9,170 on 6 1/2 years of db data, but more than that in only 1 1/2 years when we put it with tt. other pairs show similar results. the obvious conclusion is, if we can watch our trades and move stops, we should.

one last thought for the moment. anyone considering going live with this should definitely do their own look back at the trades i am reporting. i am trying to give you great detail so you can do this for yourself. did you get the same entry point? did you take the positions out at the same place i did? would you have made the same judgment calls i did? what differences do you see in our observations and how do you account for them? as advice from someone whose early losses in this game go to six figures, don’t take anyone’s word for it. do your own work!

82

today:
g/j sell 120.94, stopped -30, -30, -30
aud/usd sell 1.0208, after low of 1.01751 (notice the final 1), stops moved to be, trades all stopped
eur/usd buy 1.2138, all positions still open, inability to move up suggests reducing risk, moving stops to 1.2125, risk -15, -15, -15
g/u sell 1.5484, entry triggered by 80 pip down bar to 1.5467 followed by immediate reversal. plenty of time to see the erratic moves and reset stop to 1.5500, where it was stopped -15, -15, -15
total: -135
3 e/u trades open

83

You are really correct about the judgment call part… i have three open since yesterdy: shorts gy gu and one long aud, where only reason they survived was giving them a bit of more air to breathe. I wake up right now (gmt+8) and see positive :slight_smile:

My eur usd didnt get triggered for the reason that i have set the entry to plus +.0002 and minus -.0001. This is just me and not convincing any reader to break the triple threat rules…:slight_smile:

84

This is not strictly the correct forum but is relevant regardless. To help in the pairs selection it may be worth a look at forexfactory dot com / showthread.php? p=5599163#post5599163. This is really a proprietery indicator but other versions of currency strength meters/indicators are available. I suggest that rather than somewhat randomly selecting pairs to trade, we select pairs that are already showing trending behaviour. The easiest way to find them is by their indices then to hone in on the pairs that contain the trend pair. I have not tried this as I am busy with another system but I will get to it - maybe someone here will beat me. There is a very nice version of this (named Orion) and a Range Analyser available at some cost from fxalgotrader dot com. I have zero connection with them but nicely presented tools.
Hmmm, I can’t post links here so have broken it up a bit - put it back together.

85

pipwoof, must say nice takeprofit strategy. Its like a “feather in cap” of daybreak strategy. Will test it out definately. I am professional coder and would start making an EA for it. Will keep you posted…thanks…

86

we have a fairly dramatic runup and all pairs have gone long. time to make some decisions and changes:

g/j buy 121.69, after a high of 121.90 we are seeing some reversal. to reduce risk, set stops at 121.50

a/u buy 1.0336, tp hit at 1.0375 +35, both stops on pos 2 & 3 moved to 1.0350, locks in +10, +10

e/u buy 1.2170, tp hit at 1.2200 +30, prints above 1.2225, air stop moved to 1.2200, locks in +30, retrace stop at (moving fast as i write, just printed above 1.2250). let’s see, air stop to 1.2225, locks in +55.

87

ok, let’s try this again. moving so fast, couldn’t keep up.

g/j buy 121.69, has now printed above 122.00, take profit hit +30, pos 2 & 3 stops moved to 121.50, risking -20, -20

a/u buy 1.0336, now prints above 1.0400, tp at 1.0375, +35, air stop at 1.0375, locks in +25, retrace stop to 1.0350, locks in +10

e/u buy 1.2170, printing above 1.2275, tp hit at 1.2200 +30, air stop at 1.2250, locks in +80, retrace stop to 1.2200, locks in +30

g/u buy 1.5551, prints above 1.5625, tp hit at 1.5575, +25, air stop to 1.5600, locks in +50, retrace stop to 1.5550, be (note that this is not a strict rules tp. but, we are already way ahead, sudden runups are also frequently accompanied by sudden reversals. let’s take the pips here.)

hope i got all this right. good trading to all!

edit at 640 am: looks like we have closed +120 and locks +170 -40 = +130. check my work!

88

altos, thank you for the post and the ideas for additional tools. the suggestion to add a trend filter came early in the thread. i am not personally a believer, but tried several recommended approaches without success. at this point, i remain open, but would want to leave additional research to someone else. certainly, if we find a way to improve a method that is up over +1,300 this month, we would want to do so.

89

dineshydv, an ea would be a nice touch. i believe [U]most[/U] of the discretionary decisions could actually be coded. it seems to me that the hard part would be the variable exits. we had someone earlier working on an ea, but from the verbiage in his posts, i’m pretty sure he didn’t understand the method.

in an earlier post, i have recorded results for july to date and will complete that at the end of the month. i think the goal for an ea would be to come close to replicating those results. thanks for the offer!

90

update:

g/j buy 121.69, tp hit at 122.00 +30, prints above 122.50, air stop moved to 122.25 locks in +55, retrace stop at 122.00 locks in +30

a/u buy 1.0336, tp hit at 1.0375 +35, now printing above 1.0400, air stop at 1.0375 locks in +35, retrace stop at 1.0350 locks in +10

e/u buy 1.2170, tp hit at 1.2200 +30, prints above 1.2300, air stop at 1.2275 locks in +105, retrace stop to 1.2250, locks in +80

g/u buy 1.5551, prints above 1.5700, tp hit at 1.5575, +25, air stop to 1.5675, locks in +125, retrace stop to 1.5650, locks in +100 (note that this is not a strict rules tp, off by 1 pip. but, we are already way ahead, sudden runups are also frequently accompanied by sudden reversals. let’s take the pips here.)

summary:
closed profit +120
locks +540

edit at 815 am. this has been quite a run up and it is possible there is more left in the move. but, maybe not. i tend to the conservative side and would do this:
g/j has printed above 122.75, i would move 2 remaining stops to 122.50 locks in +80 and +80
a/u move both remaining stops to 1.0375 locks +35 and +35
e/u move both remaining stops to 1.2275 locks +105 and +105
g/u move both remaining stops to 1.5675 locks +125 and +125

the risk we take is that our stops are too tight and will be taken out, then the markets will resume the strong upward move that we will miss, sigh. the gain is that we still have a little breathing room, but we are now locked +690. this is strictly a judgment call, left to the discretion of each trader. when i report results for july, i will use the outcomes from standard procedure.

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

91

no offense to anyone. i do know the value of moving with the money flow and appreciate the efforts of those who try to predict it. but today is an example of why i remain skeptical of any predictive indis, including trend filters. look at price movement back to around the middle of the month and tell me any predictive indication that would have done anything other than keep us out of these trades today.

93

What an excellent day to be trading this stratagem! Very nice, Pipwoof.

Do you get up to alerts and reminders to change stops throughout the night, Pipwoof? I don’t and was pondering how to set limit orders and maybe trailing stops to prevent having to. I check my trades periodically throughout the day but I am not a huge fan of waking up to trade. I trade to make life easier(plus I enjoy it :slight_smile: ) not because I want to feel as though I have an infant in the house constantly.

Any suggestions on this?