Juicy lucy… this is how i like my start into 2018 …MONSTER
Eur Cad
-we see this trendline but it is not confirmed right now we need to see at least one strong bearish candle to see this TL as confirmed
-we have a S/R area below price and i want to see a clear break here before considering a short entry
looking for a short after a break or waiting for a pullback into the S/R zone to enter.
In case of a break we have again a lot of space to the downside.
In case of tl break set up would become invalide
Aud Nzd
the question is can we break through the neckline and close below it ?!
If yes we have a nice short trade here with a lot of space to the downside.
What i also like for a short is the 200 sma lines up with the neckline and in case of a break i see this as an double confirmation.
On the other hand a long scenario is also possible.
We already see a bullish daily candle as an reaction to the support last friday .
Booth of the last 2 set ups were not triggered yet …
needless to post it in detail here
but if you are interested in more details feel free to check out my weekly review here :
https://www.truemantrades.com/single-post/2018/01/20/Review-of-Weekly-Set-Ups-15-19012018
2 New set ups will follow today after preparing my weekly watchlist
cheers guys
First set up i want to present is a Trendline retest in a downward trend on GBP NZD
-falling Highs
-confirmed falling Trendline
-confirmed rising trendline as a possible entry trigger for a short
I look to enter a short trade after a nice bearish candle breaking and closing below the small rising trendline
Alternative i would consider a long entry after a valid break n close above the bigger falling trendline
( for extra confirmation i like to see a break of the 200ma as well)
We have 2 “if then” scenarios here lets see what next week will present us and if we can get an entry.
My second weekly set up is XPT USD (Platinum)
-we see price is near a confirmed resistance area where it shows strong reaction to the downside before
-we also see a rising Trendline (very steep)
-also 2 pretty nice supply zones (the 2 highs to the left)
I look for a short entry in case of a strong bearish candle which breaks n close through the rising trendline
Alternative a long entry is justified after a break of the resistance to the upside .
Again we have 2 “If then” scenarios and we just can wait for price to show us what to do and take action after one of this possible scenarios is triggered.
The Gbp Nzd trade was a perfect example why i use the “if then” scenarios and why we need to trade what we see and dont stick to one bias! Go with the flow is the Key word here .
I entered this short trade after the rising trendline was broken and price was able to close below it (first yellow circle)
Price showed no follow through and was just grinding higher again closing above the rising and the falling trendline this is was a evidence for me that it would be hard for prce to drop instead.
Time for scale out/closing the short position .
As i said in last weeks post i want price to break the falling Trendline and the ma to drag me into a long !This happend at the second yellow circle as you can see. Prce breaks and close above the moving average and i was ready for a long here .
The long trade made up for the loser before + made some extra $ as well .
Now there are different ways to manage this trade once you are in and depending on your hunger for risk this trade could be closed with a nice gain or still open .
I personaly already took my profit but will keep an eye on this trade for a possible pullback to enter long again.
But thats a different story 
The Platinum set up wasnt triggered yet but iam looking forward to see an entry next week …iam prepared for booth directions but i prefer the short
if you need more details feel free to check out my little blog on truemantrades.com
next 2 weekly set ups will follow this evening or tomorrow …stay tuned traders
cheers
Hey Guys ,
Hungry for some set ups for next week
here we go :
We are just about to break the upward Trend here and price already breaks the rising trendline on friday.
Just below current price we can find an interesting s/r zone which needs to break before i consider a short entry because price could easily find support here and start to push up again .
Without this s/r zone i would enter this trade depending on the monday open and daily price action but thats not the case so i will just sit on my hands until price reaches this s/r zone .
So my plan for this pair is to wait for a break n close below the zone to enter a short trade.
No break no Trade …
We are moving in a bigger range here and it looks like we are on the way to the top of this range again.
Price just pulled back to a well respected s/r zone and i will look for a long trade after a bullish reaction right on the s/r area ( MA gives us also kind of dynamic support here if it can hold)
The other scenario is a short trade in case price breaks the s/r zone to the downside here.
We have also kind of rising trendline but its not that important to me due to the fact that we just have several touches at the very begining of the upward move in case price respects this line and starts to offer a long opportunity i see this trendline as confirmed and we can just look for a break or rejection at the next contact with price .
week is nearly over and we had an amazing nzd jpy long… hope some of you catched that baby …
This was a beautiful example of different pieces of the puzzle working together and confirming each other well.
- our Trendline was again retested and confirmed
- the retest was a great Pinbar
- the s/r Zone was retested and was able to provide Support to Price
- the ma reacted as a Support too
Great confluence isnt it ?
All this factors together gave us a great Long trade
Like i said last week without the Support Zone i would enter on weekly open but due to that Zone i was a little bit worried
What happened ?
Price just bounced from that Zone to the upside retested the Trendline and is going south again .
So no trade was triggered for me and i will wait for a valid S/R Zone break before entering short here.
NZD CAD
We have a well respected s/r zone here which was tested 3times from above before breaking
Now we just saw the first test from underneath on the daily Timeframe.
The interesting part is that price is forming a SHS formation right under this s/r zone while the Head already retested it .
Such a formation on a location like this is a great sign that we may see a change in direction again.
Again we have 2 possibilitys for this set up
-
a break of the SHS neckline + Trendline break ( 3Touches showing us the TL is confirmed) to the downside open us a opportunity to go short here
-
invalidation of the pattern by breaking the s/r zone to the upside which would force us to overthink the whole scenario and look for a clue to go long here for example a pullback to the Trendline + s/r zone again but for now we will focus on presence not on what could be in future
Aud CAD
-we have a Daily Pinbar
-The Pinbar is forming right on a s/r zone
-we have a Trendline wich is almost confimed by the 3rd touch
A clear and simple set up for me which could be played like this :
waiting for a follow through candle in daily Timeframe to give us a"real" confirmation of the Trendline
the other possibility is a break of the s/r zone and the Trendline to the downside and shorting this pair to the 0,9700 level as a first target
We started with a nice follow through after the Pinbar right on the s/r zone and confirmed the trendline by this rejection which leads to a long entry .
Unfortunately price droped and breaks down the trendline which was our sign to close the position to prevent a full lose of -1R and change our trade idea from a long to a short .
Now depending on how you played this short scenario the trade could have been kicked by price due to some massive Cad news reaction on Friday ( in case your stop was below the last swing high ).
Now price looks like we will see more downside due to the fact that we are close below the s/r zone and outside the trendline and of course this hugh wick to the upside which shows bulls were pushed down violently after trying to break to the upside again.
Good example of a tricky trade
The Daily Chart of Nzd Cad showed us no follow through for the SHS Pattern here no break n close below trendline or neckline so no trade for us here .
This is a good example why i always wait for a candle close before taking a decision .
Traders who not waiting for it could have been short after price breaking the trendline with a glowing red candle just to see price grinding higher and leaving an indecisive candle closing above the trendline again
The h4 chart showed us also no SHS follow through , there was no neckline break as well.
You can maybe argue that the trendline was broken and price was able to close below BUT the Neckline wasnt !!
And when it comes to trade the SHS you NEED a neckline break to take a trade.
So no Short trade here .
But lets take a look at the Long side 
Trendline clearly holds .
Look at all the wicks pushing price away from the trendline followed by a strong bullish candle.
This was clearly a long opportunity .
Let me show you the same chart in a smaller timeframe to see how you could have played it :
This is H1 Chart and we need to take a look at the trendline here .
All this reactions showing us that the trendline is holding and we looking for some confirmation to go long .
So the easiest way is to look for a structure to break like another trendline in this case .
See the confirmed small falling trendline (3 touches) after price breaks through this trendline to the upside we were ready to take a long trade with a target at the supply zone right at the “head”
This is a way of stay flexible and react to the market behaviour .
First we were looking for the short and the SHS to play out but price showed us that it doesnt want to break down by respecting the rising trendline several times , time to switch our bias from short to long and adappt to the market conditions by scanning the price structure and find a break of another structure giving us a clue of the direction .
New week new luck traders
2 new set ups for you
Whats my Idea for this set up ?
It looks like a classic top pattern for me .
We see price found reistance in form of a double top right at a previous swing high which provides this resistance area.
I look for a short trade after price breaks n close below the double top neckline (support) .
Looking for a target at round about 1.54500 area.
If price cant break below i look for the other direction and a break of the resistance at the top for further bullish momentum.
2 simple “If then” scenarios for this more or less classical top formation.
We are in a clear bearish market and going down since around 1year
The last weeks we can see a correction in direction of a previous s/r zone which was respected several times before price was able to break it down + extra confluence by a trendline with several touches.
Now again we have 2 scenarios which could happen here.
-
Price respects the s/r zone + the trendline giving us a great opportunity to go short into the bigger picture trend direction
-
Price breaks the trendline + the s/r zone to the upside telling us that the downward trend could come to an end and offer us a chance to go long in a very early stage of this new trend
I personaly prefer the short side cause its always better to go with the bigger picture trend than against it but if market tells us a long is the way to go i will not discuss with him
You see the first bearish candle which closed below the s/r zone , this was the entry for me .
What happend next is 4 candles in a row cutting through the s/r zone up an down which is not a great confirmation for a further downward move for me but the first candle which has a open and a close above the s/r zone was my trigger to leave the position and take a small lose ( yellow circle) .
Good decision cause otherwise the next candle would have kicked me out for a full sl.