Hi All,
I’ve recently joined babypips and just wanted to discuss a strategy I’ve read about.
It’s called the turtle trading strategy. The idea is to look for 21 day or 52 day high or low prices in a market in the hope that there will be a price breakout which one can profit from.
I’m new to live trading so am trading microlots at the moment (literally 0.01 lots).
Has anyone else here used this method with any success?
Xanel
Nothing against this type of thing - you would probably have done well shorting oil with this recently - but it’s such a long term strategy you’ll never get any experience.
You could change the parameters to hourly bars and see what happens.
I think the big take away from the turtles is that trading can be taught - that was the original bet between Richard Dennis and Bill Echardt - but the system they taught is probably not the best
The basic principles of Turtle trading are fine. If price is tending upwards and makes an upwards break-out, its completely rational to be going long and following the trend. But there’s absolutely no need to be confined to the exact tactics and settings the Turtles used.
Especially if you’re going to be doing this for forex pairs, which are not normally seen as a highly trending set of markets, you should do some experimentation and back-testing.
In addition, a major factor in the Turtles’ financial performances was the system’s demands for aggressive pyramiding. Don’t neglect this in favour of perfecting entry rules.
A price breakout can be a good starting point for a trade, but that is all it is -a starting point! Obviously, one does not make money from the trade entry, rather, the deciding factor on how successful the trade will be is decided by the exit decision. The turtle trading strategy does include exit strategies but you have not mentioned if you intend sticking with those or something else?
Apart from that you have other issues to decide including:
In other words, you need to define your complete business environment and not just when to pull the trigger.
A hypothetical example: a beachwear seller decides to buy and offer his season’s swimwear at the first high average temperature in the spring. Does this mean he will make a good profit from the summer? Maybe! But that will also depend on what price he buys, what price he offers, whether the style is attractive to buyers, whether the quality is good enough, whether he bought too many or too few outfits (market analysis), etc, etc.
A complete business strategy is the mark of a business, a buy-and-let’s-hope is the mark of an opportunist.
And to think oil just went below $0 - just to change the subject completlet I’m totally stunned
It is, i believe, at its lowest level in its entire history. There is great difficulty even knowing where to store the stuff now that demand is so low.
… But more to the point, shouldn’t you be asleep right now? What time is it there!?
From what I’ve read online and the people who taught me this method advised against using this method with an hourly chart.
The teachers endorse a “set and forget” method whereby one places many buy/ sell stop orders at the 21/52 high/low prices (with stop losses) and wait for these orders to be breached.
The orders are to be adjusted every day in line with changes in market price.
I think I’ll have a read around on this site for other trading methods and have a crack at them with a demo account.
Thank you,
I am looking for what is best, all advice welcome!
When you say “pyramiding” Do you mean the need for their to be a certain amount of floating profit accrued before I can take on another position? Yes I will be disciplined and do this.
Or do you mean something else by pyramiding ? 
Thank you for the questions, my answers below. Feel free to give any feedback.
Exit strategy is to exit at the opposite 21 day or 10 day high/low price.
I have also considered using a take profit at 2-3% of my account size (setting this based on previous support/ resistance lines). The idea being that if I risk 1% of my account and take a 2-3% profit where possible I can still be profitable even if I am not successful in always predicting trade direction.
My answers to your questions below:
Things are pretty crazy at the moment. Unprecedented times. Hope everyone is keeping well and safe. Thanks for all your input
I was in bed - but the cat woke me up and after a quick peak at the charts could go back to sleep!
Your probably right about the hourly charts personally I’d avoid intra day charts altogether.
My main point is youll need to develop your skillset and that is going to be hard with such long term trades.
Taking 2-3% of account in profit is a foolhardy approach with a trend following system. You need to be pushing for as much profit as you can get.
This is because in a trend following system your going to experience many losing trades while trying to hook that one big one.
Market spend so much time going sideways that really you do need to make the most of a trade when its come.
Honestly as a beginner I’d try shorter term trading - you’ll get more trades, can take profits quicker thus will get regular feedback.
Any suggestions of a good short term method I could research? Something I could research on this website?
Thanks
You could check out my blog, the link is in my profile. There are a few strategies on there - whether you consider them good or not is a different matter.
What they are is simple and easy for the newbie to grasp.
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If you click on the “Trading” tab on the above menu you will find a number of methods that you could look into to gain some inspiration.
But I think you need you decide first what kind of trading approach suits your character and personal circumstances. Some people cannot take the rapid changes and illogical moves on short term intraday charts, whilst other thrive on it, trading intensely for a few hours in a selected zone such as NY or London.
But I think you will do best at this stage working with what one could call a medium term time range based on, say, 4-hour charts with daily charts to highlight the underlying trend. Or maybe a 1-hour/ daily combination would suit you better.
On the other hand, if you work full-time then maybe dailies are better for you.
Whatever trading time scenario you choose, you then need to think what kind of entry/exit triggers you prefer, are they based on PA type signals, candle structures or certain mathematically based indicators. They all have their benefits and their drawbacks and none work all the time in all markets.
Alongside that you need to decide your risk and money management rules. Without these, even a successful trading method can still end up losing money.
Just some thoughts…
PS. Whatever you decide at this stage is not cast in stone for ever, your style and approach and rules/parameters will evolve as you progress - the key aim at this stage is building experience and, in particular, building confidence in your own decision-making (as well as avoiding losing your equity! 
, of course!)
Hi John,
I have spent some time reading your blog. Will send you a PM.