U.K. CPI Rose in March, RPI Fall For the First Time Since 1960

U.K. March CPI rose 0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y, right in line with the market median and versus 0.9% m/m and 3.2% y.y in February. As expected, RPI turned negative for the first time since 1960, falling to -0.4% y.y (median -0.5%) from an unchanged February reading. RIPX decelerated to 2.2% y/y from 2.5%. The the largest monthly downward impact came from food and housing related costs. Meanwhile, the annual rate of transportation inflation fell 2.0%, the weakest reading since November 2001. CPI is likely to fall sharply this year and we expect the measure to turn negative in the second half of 2009, but to pick up again in 2010.