UK Consumer Confidence continued to advance for the fourth consecutive month in April according to GfK, a market researcher, rising to -27 from -30 in the previous month. The news is hardly encouraging, however, even if we assume that the metric has put in a bottom despite rising unemployment. Looking at a comparable period of low consumer confidence during the 1990-91 recession, we see that the GfK metric reversed upward in March 1990 but GDP follow suit only 6 months later and did not return to positive growth for a full two years down the road. The absence of expanding output will mean that the central bank is likely to maintain a very loose monetary policy, holding the British Pound back against the currencies of countries where economic growth and by extension interest rates will head higher sooner (most notably the US Dollar).